Crisis in Ukraine

Xarog

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EU ‘sleepwalked’ into Ukraine crisis due to poor understanding of Russia - UK Lords
The EU ‘sleepwalked’ into the Ukrainian crisis after a failure to address Moscow’s concerns over Western policies, a UK parliamentary report says. Europeans suffer from poor analytic capacity when it comes to Russia.

The scathing report on the causes and the future of the Ukrainian debacle and Russia-West divide was prepared by the House of Lords, European Union Committee tasked with considering UK’s participation in EU matters.

The report identified policies in both Russia and EU and its member states that prevented them from engaging in dialogue and building trust between each other. Europeans are particularly guilty of lacking analytical capacity to properly understand Russia and predict its responses to EU’s actions.

“There has been a decline in Member States’ analytical capacity on Russia. This has weakened their ability to read the political shifts and to offer an authoritative response. Member States need to rebuild their former skills,” the report said.

READ MORE: ‘Beyond diplomatic ethics’: Moscow rejects UK comment that Russia is threat to Baltics

“There is also a reduced emphasis on the importance and role of analytical expertise in the FCO (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK’s Foreign Ministry). The FCO should review how such skills could be renewed and how analysis can feed into decision-making processes,” the report added.

As a result,“an element of ‘sleep-walking’ was evident in the run-up to the crisis in Ukraine, and important analytical mistakes were made by the EU. Officials in Brussels as well as Member States’ embassies all participate in the EU foreign policy process, but all seem to have missed the warning signs.”

Russia’s security concerns genuine

The Lords say Western policies towards Russia didn’t acknowledge the genuine concern about the enlargement of NATO.

“For the Russians NATO is seen as a hostile military threat, and successive rounds of NATO’s eastern enlargement have, as the Russians see it, brought it threateningly close to the Russian border. EU enlargement, as it has become conflated with NATO enlargement, has also taken on the aspect of a security threat,” the document said.

“Russian security threat perceptions of NATO have to be acknowledged, and also challenged, in any discussions on European security,” the report recommended.

Russians see the eastwards enlargement of the EU as a process parallel with NATO expansion, the report points out. So the European drive to get Ukraine into the Eastern Partnership program was viewed as not only an attack on Russian economic interests in Ukraine, but also on its national security.

The quick move towards renouncing Ukraine’s military non-alliance status by the new authorities in Kiev, which took power from President Yanukovich in February 2014, strengthened this assessment.


Unrealistic expectations of Eastern Partnership

Economically there was also lack of proper communication between the EU and Moscow in the run-up to the Ukrainian crisis, the report said. The events in Ukraine were triggered by the EU Association Agreement, a free-trade treaty that Brussels wanted Kiev to sign and which the former Yanukovich government chose to postpone. Russia opposed the deal, saying it would hurt its trade with Ukraine and damage the latter’s economy.

“Collectively, the EU overestimated the intention of the Ukrainian leadership to sign an Association Agreement, appeared unaware of the public mood in Ukraine and, above all, underestimated the depth of Russian hostility towards the Association Agreement,” the report said, adding that Europeans “did not connect the dots” in this case.

READ MORE: 5 facts you need to know about Ukraine-EU trade deal

The pursuit of the agreement with Ukraine and the entire Eastern Partnership program, which is aimed in integrating Russia’s neighbors closer with the EU are causing turmoil, and the EU is partly to blame, the report suggests.

“There is an unresolved tension between the offer of [EU] membership on the table to Eastern Partnership countries and the political will of Member States to follow through, which is not uniform. This creates unrealistic expectations, and complicates Russia’s relationship both with these countries and with the EU,” the report said. “Member States must clarify whether EU membership is on offer.”

The British Lords acknowledge that “Moscow has a right not to be excluded from the eastern neighborhood” and recommended that the EU engaged “in a fundamental reassessment of their strategic interests” there.

Long-term sanctions withdrawal required

The report approved EU’s sanction policy towards Russia over the Ukrainian crisis, but says a proper long-term exit strategy is needed.

READ MORE: ‘Strategic rift’: Hungary PM criticizes EU partners trying to isolate Moscow

“There is no evidence that sanctions have caused [Russian] President Putin to shift his stance on Crimea, where Russia has direct and vital security interests through the Sevastopol naval base,” the document states.

“In the long term, three-tier sanctions are detrimental to the EU’s interests as well as to Russia’s. While they could be renewed in the short term, the prospect of the progressive removal of sanctions should be part of the EU’s negotiating position. Genuine progress by Russia in delivering the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine should be the basis for ratcheting down sanctions.”

The report suggests that resolving the legal status of Crimea should be postponed until more urgent matters of stopping the violence in Ukraine and helping its ailing economy are addressed.

READ MORE: France should recognize Crimea as part of Russia – Le Pen

“The possibility of another referendum on Crimea, under international mediation, is one option,” the report said. “We recognize that there is a danger that any such referendum would be colored by Russia’s domination of the political and media landscape in Crimea. It is critical that there should be an open and honest debate, and that citizens should vote without fear of reprisal. Nevertheless, this option should remain on the table.”

On a wider scale, the report suggests tackling some the issues in the EU that only aggravate the rift with Russia. One of them is “the historical grievance of the rights of ethnic Russians in Estonia and Latvia”that “seem to be a question to be investigated” by the EU. Another is the “events which commemorate our shared pan-European history,” which, according to the report “should stand separate from international disputes.”
http://rt.com/uk/234023-house-lords-ukraine-report/

Well I never figured I'd see myself write this but, hooray for the House of Lords! It's so nice to finally see some sanity coming from the West. :)
 
K

kingrob

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Well I never figured I'd see myself write this but, hooray for the House of Lords! It's so nice to finally see some sanity coming from the West. :)

So you are saying the British said it's ok to invade a sovereign country and murder its citizens when you have a security worry, or not happy with current developments around your borders? And murder 5400+ civilians randomly "for the cause"??

I thought that was the whole reason for ambassadors and negotiations between countries?

Somehow I see you as someone who loves seeing Russia destroying Ukraine.
 

Xarog

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So you are saying the British said it's ok to invade a sovereign country and murder its citizens when you have a security worry, or not happy with current developments around your borders? And murder 5400+ civilians randomly "for the cause"??
No, what the British said is that it was possible to avoid this disaster alltogether. What the British said is that the Russian perspective has been glossed over and ignored and that doing this when it comes to Russia's national interests is stupid. If you're going to put words in my mouth you'll have to try harder than that.

I thought that was the whole reason for ambassadors and negotiations between countries?
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeucom/115/115.pdf

Here's the link to the original document. I haven't finished reading it but I'd say I agree with about 80% of what I've read so far. It goes into detail as to how this misfunctioned and it's not afraid of laying blame on the EU where blame is due.

Somehow I see you as someone who loves seeing Russia destroying Ukraine.
Then you haven't been paying attention very carefully.
 

Nanfeishen

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So you are saying the British said it's ok to invade a sovereign country and murder its citizens when you have a security worry, or not happy with current developments around your borders? And murder 5400+ civilians randomly "for the cause"??

That figure for civilians is an estimated total of the conflict, deaths caused by both sides "for the cause" in the war, not just from one side.
 

Xarog

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Actually, kingrob, here is a practical example :

MH17.

Everyone likes to blame the Russians, but, do they have conclusive proof? No. Do the Russians know this? Yup. Did the Russians give evidence that they weren't the ones to blame? Yup. Did the EU/US ignore this and not question Ukraine about the evidence? Yup. And the reason? Well obviously the Russians must be lying.

Consider the implications of this sequence of events if the Russians either sincerely believe themselves to be innocent or honestly have no idea what happened. Do you think these kinds of statements made by other nations are going to be seen as reasonable statements, or statements designed to stick one to Russia no matter the truth? It is not possible that this treatment has been unreasonable and inflammatory in terms of making the conflict worse? Why the **** would anyone subjected to that behaviour think that the person on the other end of the line is sane and rational?

Of course, point any of this out and suddenly you must have a hard-on for Russian aggression. :rolleyes:
 

Xarog

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On one side, it is asserted that the western powers pledged that NATO would extend no further east. This promise was broken by three rounds of further enlargement, adding 12 eastern European countries to the Alliance. Sir Rodric Braithwaite GCMG, former British Ambassador to the Soviet Union and Russia, informed us that assurances were given in 1990 by the US (James Baker, US Secretary of State) and Germany (Helmut Kohl, German Chancellor), and in 1991 on behalf of the UK (by the then Prime Minister, John Major, and the British Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd) and France (by French President Francois Mitterrand). Sir Rodric Braithwaite said that this factual record has not been successfully challenged in the West.”131 Former US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara has also averred that the US “pledged never to expand NATO eastward if Moscow would agree to the unification of Germany.” 132
I might well end up quoting vast sections of this document. Are you paying attention, Unhappy? See why the Russian's don't trust anything the West says and why their comments about never trusting anything the West says after they lied about the no-fly zones over Libya is actually very significant?

See why the Russians freak out when the day after they strike an agreement (Minsk Protocols), Ukraine starts making noises about a different deal? What if the Russians aren't bloodthirsty monsters but just people instead?

Edit : Nvm, the doc actually says it better than I have :

While the facts of that expansion may be disputed, what is clear is that the ‘broken promise’ of enlargement has long featured as a key element of Russian policy-makers’ deepening cynicism over NATO and western good faith. Sir Rodric Braithwaite found it “unsurprising that the Russians took seriously repeated high-level oral assurances they were given by Western of ficials who, they naturally assumed, were speaking responsibly”, and noted that the Russians therefore “felt that they had been badly misled” by NATO enlargement. 138 The Russian President returned to this topic in his 18 March Speech to the Federation Council: “they (Western leaders) have lied to us many times, made decisions behind our backs, placed before us an accomplished fact. This happened with NATO’s expansion to the East, as well as the deployment of military infrastructure at our borders.” 139
 
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Albereth

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I might well end up quoting vast sections of this document. Are you paying attention, Unhappy? See why the Russian's don't trust anything the West says and why their comments about never trusting anything the West says after they lied about the no-fly zones over Libya is actually very significant?

See why the Russians freak out when the day after they strike an agreement (Minsk Protocols), Ukraine starts making noises about a different deal? What if the Russians aren't bloodthirsty monsters but just people instead?

Edit : Nvm, the doc actually says it better than I have :

Well, the expression 'blood will out' applies to Russians too.
 

Xarog

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Well, the expression 'blood will out' applies to Russians too.
I am not sure what point you are trying to make. I would expect the phrase to apply to everyone insofar it applies to anyone (nature/nurture debate etc.).
 

Albereth

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I am not sure what point you are trying to make. I would expect the phrase to apply to everyone insofar it applies to anyone (nature/nurture debate etc.).

Of course. That's essentially what I said. Why are people surprised when the Russians behave like Russians?
 

Xarog

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There Goes the Guardian, Lying About Ukraine…Again!
by ERIC DRAITSER


The western media is busily trying to prop up their failed narrative of “Russian aggression” in Ukraine in a desperate attempt to legitimize their consciously deceitful reporting. To do so, they are now relying not on experts or western intelligence reports, but a discredited blogger and his corporate media chums.

On February 17, 2015, The Guardian ran a story with the headline “Russia shelled Ukrainians from within its own territory, says study.” The title alone is enough to convince many casual observers that yes, the mainstream media reporting on the civil war in Ukraine has been correct all along. You see, it’s all because of Russian aggression, or so the meme would go. But closer analysis of this story, and the key players involved, should cause any reasonably intelligent and logical person to seriously doubt the veracity of nearly every aspect of the story.

Let’s begin first with the headline and subhead which, as anyone in media knows, is often all that will be read by many readers. The headline leads with a conclusion: Russia shelled Ukraine from within Russian territory. Simple. Clear. Why bother reading further? Well, in reality, the article both overtly and tacitly admits that the so called “study” (more on that later) has not reached that clear conclusion, not even close. Here are some key phrases sprinkled throughout the piece that should give pause to any serious-minded political observer or analyst.

Despite the declaration in the headline, a close reader encounters phrases such as “near conclusive proof,” “estimated trajectories,” “likely firing positions,” and other ambiguous phrases that are more suggestive than they are declarative. In other words, these are mere rhetorical flourishes designed to lead casual, uninformed readers to make conclusions that are simply not backed up by the evidence.

The so called study relied heavily on “crater patterns from satellite photos of three battlefields,” and it is from these crater patterns, and the equally dubious “tyre tracks” that the authors of the study drew their conclusions. However, even the independent military forensics expert contacted by The Guardian “warned that the accuracy of crater analysis in determining direction of fire on the basis of satellite photography was scientifically unproven.”

Indeed, conveniently buried at the end of the long article is the key quote from Stephen Johnson, a weapons expert at the Cranfield Forensic Institute, part of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom who said quite clearly that crater analysis is “highly experimental and prone to inaccuracy.” Mr. Johnson added that “This does not mean there is no value to the method, but that any results must be considered with caution and require corroboration.”

Wait a second. I thought that our dear expert authors of the study had “near conclusive proof” according to the lead paragraphs of the story. When you actually read what the real expert, as opposed to the non-experts who conducted the “study,” has to say, it immediately casts a long shadow of doubt on the entire narrative being propagated by the article. Is The Guardian here guilty of clear manipulation of the story for political purposes? It would seem at best unprofessional and dishonest reporting, at worst it’s outright lying in the service of the agenda of those at the top of the western political establishment.

Now of course we know that The Guardian has repeatedly been taken to task by highly respected journalists and analysts for its biased and one-sided reporting of issues ranging from its coverage of Russian President Putin and Russia’s actions in Crimea, to its shamefully biased (here, here and here for three of the many examples) coverage of Israel-Palestine conflict, and a number of other important issues.

Perhaps most germane to this discussion is The Guardian’s own reporting last summer, which it references in this article, of Russian military vehicles crossing the border into Ukraine – a significant charge that would be taken seriously if there were one shred of tangible proof. But alas there isn’t. There is only the word of The Guardian’s reporter Shaun Walker, who conveniently could not get a photograph or video of the alleged military vehicles crossing into Ukraine. One would think with mobile phones all equipped with cameras and the vast resources of a major western media outlet, not to mention the seemingly all-encompassing global surveillance architecture at the disposal of western governments, at least some credible, verifiable evidence would have emerged. But no, we just have to take the Guardian’s word for it.

There’s a lot of that going around when it comes to Ukraine. We just have to “take their word for it,” as we were supposed to with regard to the charges of Russian military shooting down MH17, a baseless charge that has since disappeared from the headlines, with the actual results of the investigation being buried or suppressed entirely.

Not only should The Guardian’s reporting be scrutinized, but so too should their darling “expert” blogger Eliot Higgins, aka Brown Moses, the author of this inconclusive “conclusive report.”

Fifty Shades of Brown

Aside from the deceptive language and misleading statements, there is a broader issue that must be addressed, namely the reliability of the source of this so called study. Perhaps first we should dispense with the use of the term “study” as that would imply experts using objective facts, data, etc. Rather, what we are dealing with is a politically motivated report by a source that has already been discredited numerous times.

The report comes from an organization called Bellingcat, purportedly an independent citizen journalism platform that uses social media and other open source information to draw conclusions about everything from military hardware movements to the firing of missiles and artillery. Of course it should immediately raise questions that The Guardian’s article is co-authored by one Eliot Higgins, a self-proclaimed “military expert” who founded the “Brown Moses” blog. Why is this important? Because Bellingcat is a creation of the same Eliot Higgins. Indeed, Bellingcat’s Kickstarter page made no secret of the fact that “Bellingcat is a website founded by Brown Moses…the pseudonym for Eliot Higgins, a laid-off government worker turned blogger turned weapons analysis expert and leading source of information on the conflict in Syria.”

A close look at some of the blurbs noted on the Kickstarter page reveals that this “independent blogger” has been touted by The Guardian, Deutsche Welle, UK’s Channel 4, The Daily Beast, and many other corporate media outlets. Anyone with an understanding of how hard it is to actually be an independent analyst knows that such establishment outlets do not simply promote independent media that provides thoughtful analysis. Rather, Brown Moses and Bellingcat have been seized upon as a convenient foil to true alternative media, spinning the establishment narrative under the guise of “independent reporting.” However, let us not simply deride this obvious sham. Let us evaluate Brown Moses’ own record, which for an “expert” is dismal.
1/2
 

Xarog

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Higgins aka Brown Moses aka BM claimed to have proven that the chemical weapons attack on Ghouta, Syria on August 21, 2013 could only have been carried out by the Syrian military and government. His claims are based on his own “expert” analysis of missile trajectories and other “evidence” he claims to have obtained through videos and other open source information. Of course, in making this claim, Higgins places himself in direct opposition to former UN weapons inspector Richard Lloyd and Prof. Theodore Postel of MIT, the authors of an actual report from the MIT Science, Technology, and Global Security Working Group entitled “Possible Implications of Faulty US Technical Intelligence in the Damascus Nerve Agent Attack of August 21, 2013.” The report, conducted by real experts, not armchair bloggers, concluded that the Syrian government could not have carried out the attack, and that such intelligence was nearly used as justification for yet another aggressive war.

Also debunking BM’s spurious charges is the report from Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh which revealed the existence of a classified US Defense Intelligence Agency briefing which noted unequivocally that the Al Nusra Front had its own chemical weapons, not to mention deep ties to Saudi and Turkish intelligence and chemical arms suppliers. Hersh’s reporting finally firmly established the fact that the rebels were indeed capable of carrying out the attack on East Ghouta, and that they had help from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and possibly other regional actors. And so, not only did they have the motive (to blame Assad for using chemical weapons while international investigators were in Syria, thereby justifying a military intervention and regime change), but also the means and opportunity. This is an essential point because the entire ‘case’ against Assad relied on the fact that only Damascus was technologically and logistically capable of carrying out such an attack.

But BM contended that he was right, Hersh, Lloyd, and Postel were wrong, and that the narrative should reflect that. So, on the one hand we have a blogger with no formal training in ballistics, physics, or any relevant scientific or military field, and on the other we have a Pulitzer Prize winner with decades of experience and high-level contacts and sources all over the world. We have the word of some guy in an apartment in the UK, or the scientifically arrived at findings of a former chemical weapons inspector (read actual expert) and an internationally respected Professor of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy at MIT, a world renowned academic and research institution. And which do you think The Guardian chose to promote?

But BM’s noxious odor also pervades the reporting on the downing of MH 17, yet another story that The Guardian utterly distorted, before mostly dropping it from the headlines when the western narrative was discredited. In an August 2, 2014 article written by Higgins entitled “MH17 Missiles Can’t Hide From These Internet Sleuths,” Higgins claims to have concluded that Russia or the anti-Kiev rebels must have shot down the plane with a Buk missile launcher – a weapons system also in the possession of Kiev’s military. What is his evidence? It’s a series of photographs published in various media outlets that he cannot corroborate in any way. Instead, this “sleuth” is making his case based on faith – faith that the photographs were taken where and when they claim to have been, and show what they claim to show.

Of course, it has since been publicly acknowledged on more than one occasion that photographs purporting to show Russian military incursions into Ukraine have been fabricated and/or misrepresented causing tremendous embarrassment for US and European governments that have repeatedly claimed to have such evidence. But our dear BM is unfazed by such revelations. Instead, he seems to simply shriek louder. Rather than leaving analysis of MH 17 to aviation and military experts, he peddles his “opinion.” Rather than acknowledging the bias in his own reporting, to say nothing of the limitations of armchair technical analysis, he continues to grow his image, and with it, the lies, omissions, and distortions he propagates.

And so we return to the new “study” by Higgins and his Bellingcat group of “digital detectives.” They are obviously front-and-center in the western media because their conclusions are aligned with the US-NATO political agenda. They are a de facto arm of the western corporate media and military-industrial complex, providing the veneer of “independent analysis” in order to penetrate the blogosphere and social media platforms where the mainstream narrative is being questioned, scrutinized, and discredited. Bellingcat and Higgins’ names should be known to everyone, but not because their analysis is worthwhile. Rather, they need to become household names so that those who understand how western propaganda and soft power actually works, will be on the lookout for more of their disinformation.

Perhaps The Guardian should also be more careful in how it presents its information. By promoting Higgins and his discredited outfit, they are once again promoting disinformation for the purposes of selling war. The US almost went to war with Syria (which it is doing now anyway) based on the flawed intelligence and “analysis” of people like Higgins. Naturally, everyone remembers how The Guardian, like all of its corporate media brethren, helped to sell the Iraq War based on complete lies. Have they learned nothing? It would seem so.

But those interested in peace and truth, we have learned something about propaganda and lies used to sell war. We who have called out these lies repeatedly – from Iraq in 2003, to Syria and Ukraine today – we once again repudiate the false narrative and the drumbeat for war. We reject the corporate media propagandists and their “alternative media” appendages. We stand for peace. And unlike The Guardian and Higgins, we stand on firm ground.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/20/the-guardian-lying-about-ukraine-again/

No Russian military activity in region bordering Ukraine, Dutch experts say

Dutch military experts have confirmed there is no military activity in Russia’s Rostov region bordering Ukraine, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s International Treaties Implementation Department told Sputnik. The international experts inspected 13,000 square kilometers (5,000 square miles) in the border region, Sergey Ryzhkov added. The inspection carried out between February 17 and 20 was not only done on the ground, but in the air, and focused on an area that Ukrainian specialists had chosen for inspection earlier. The inspections are held in accordance with the 2011 Vienna Document, which stipulates measures of confidence-building and security.
http://rt.com/news/line/2015-02-20/

But of course, suggest that The Guardian was last honest over a decade ago and suddenly you must be off your rocker. :whistling:
 

Jola

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MH17.

Everyone likes to blame the Russians, but, do they have conclusive proof? No. Do the Russians know this? Yup. Did the Russians give evidence that they weren't the ones to blame? Yup. Did the EU/US ignore this and not question Ukraine about the evidence? Yup. And the reason? Well obviously the Russians must be lying.

This is a bad example, as the Russians are lying and there is conclusive proof of this.

The only Russian "proof" that I have seen is fabricated BS.
 

Xarog

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This is a bad example, as the Russians are lying and there is conclusive proof of this.

The only Russian "proof" that I have seen is fabricated BS.
No, it really is the perfect example and your knee-jerk propagandistic response just proves it.
 

Jola

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No, it really is the perfect example and your knee-jerk propagandistic response just proves it.

Nope, bad example, and your knee-jerk propagandistic response just proves it.
 

Xarog

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Nope, bad example, and your knee-jerk propagandistic response just proves it.
Keep posting, you're only proving my point.

Edit : Since you're so sure of yourself you should give these guys a call, the reward seems quite lucrative : http://rt.com/news/188512-30million-malaysian-plane-ukraine/

$30 million will be given to those who help identify the perpetrators of the downing of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine that killed all 298 on board, said an independent German fraud investigation company.

Two months have passed since the Malaysia Airlines plane on its way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot-down in eastern Ukraine on July 17 with 298 crew and passengers on board who all died in the crash. A preliminary report into the disaster carried out by Dutch investigators and issued on September 9 said that the MH17 crash was a result of structural damage caused by a large number of high-energy objects that struck the Boeing from the outside.

The investigation company Wifka, based in Schleswig-Holstein, north Germany said that it has been charged with investigating the case of the downing.
 
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Xarog

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Of course there is no Russian military activity inside Russia, it's all inside Ukraine.
So you agree that the Guardian article claiming that the Russians fired on the Ukrainians from inside Russian territory was bullschit? Good to know.

In any event, you are using an unreliable source, everything RT says is distorted.
If it's so distorted I'm sure you can show how it is distorted, right?
 
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