And what they found is very reassuring. Studies have shown that properly installed fiber will only have a chance of failure at a rate of 1 in 100,000 per kilometer per year between years 20 and 40 after installation. Statistics are funny things and that kind of rate is not easy to apply for a layman, but it ought to be obvious that this means very few failures for a normal fiber installation during that time frame. This means that fiber ought to easily last forty years and far beyond. Nobody will yet say how much further beyond, but I talked once to a few engineers from Corning and they told me that as long as it’s treated well that their best guess is at least 75 years. We’ll have to wait around to see if that is true.
The same scientists have studied real life applications of fiber and have calculated that the chances of buried fiber being cut is 1 in 1,000 per kilometer per year. This means it is 100 times more likely for a fiber to be cut than to have it fail from inherent flaws. Again, statistics like this aren’t straight-line ratios, but it you operate a 500-mile fiber network, this tells you that you can expect a fiber cut every year or so.
https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2015/11/23/how-long-does-fiber-last/