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Sign up with GoogleICC Twenty20 2014
- Thread starter MickeyD
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MickeyD
RIP
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Very interesting article!
Basically analyses your chances of winning based on the number of wickets you lose in the first 6 over power play!
http://www.cricket.geek.nz/2014/03/is-it-game-over-if-you-lose-more-than-2.html?spref=tw
--------------------ARTICLE--------------------------
Is it game over if you lose more than 2 wickets in the powerplay?
I recently observed this conversation on twitter: <see article>
It immediately made me wonder if Aakash was correct. Do you lose if you are more than 2 wickets in the power play of a T20 International.
I decided to find out. I felt that it was probably best to only look at situations where a team had batted first, as there is not any external scoreboard pressure (or lack thereof) interfering with the batsmen's mind sets.
I looked at every match where there was a result inside 20 overs (I ignored matches that had ended in a super-over or bowl-off) and looked at how many wickets down the team were after 6 overs. I didn't count "retired hurt" as a wicket, despite there being a change of batsmen and the batting team losing momentum similar to when a wicket falls.
Once I did that I came up with some quite interesting numbers.
It's fairly clear here that losing wickets early hurts the probability of winning. This is not really a surprise, often teams bat their best batsmen at the top, and the subsequent batsmen have to take fewer risks if there are not many wickets left above them. However while there are a lot of incidents of teams losing 1 or 2 wickets, our sample size is quite small for the other number of wickets. I've graphed it, adding in a 95% confidence interval. This indicates what range we can expect the actual winning probability to lie in per wicket loss: The shorter the line, the more reliable the data.
We can clearly see the trend here. But we also notice the huge gap between being 2 down and being 3 down. There does seem to be a difference between losing 2 wickets or losing more than 2 wickets.
Accordingly I broke it down into 3 groups. Less than 2 wickets, 2 wickets or More than 2 wickets. Here's how that looks:
Roughly teams win two thirds of the matches where they lose less than 2 wickets, half of the matches where they lose two wickets and about a quarter of the matches where they lose more than 2 wickets.
I also broke it down further by team, and this holds true for almost every team. The only team that has won more than half of their matches when batting first and losing more than 2 wickets in the power play is Ireland. (Interestingly Ireland has the 4th best winning record of any team batting first, and then they are not far behind Pakistan, Sri Lanka and South Africa).
Sri Lanka win just under 80% of t20's when they lose 2 or less wickets in the power play, but 20% when they lose 2 or more wickets. England win just over 60% if they keep their wickets in hand, but only 20% when they lose 3 or more in the power play.
With the World T20 getting underway, how the teams approach the first 6 overs could be a fascinating thing to keep an eye on.
Basically analyses your chances of winning based on the number of wickets you lose in the first 6 over power play!
http://www.cricket.geek.nz/2014/03/is-it-game-over-if-you-lose-more-than-2.html?spref=tw
--------------------ARTICLE--------------------------
Is it game over if you lose more than 2 wickets in the powerplay?
I recently observed this conversation on twitter: <see article>
It immediately made me wonder if Aakash was correct. Do you lose if you are more than 2 wickets in the power play of a T20 International.
I decided to find out. I felt that it was probably best to only look at situations where a team had batted first, as there is not any external scoreboard pressure (or lack thereof) interfering with the batsmen's mind sets.
I looked at every match where there was a result inside 20 overs (I ignored matches that had ended in a super-over or bowl-off) and looked at how many wickets down the team were after 6 overs. I didn't count "retired hurt" as a wicket, despite there being a change of batsmen and the batting team losing momentum similar to when a wicket falls.
Once I did that I came up with some quite interesting numbers.
| Wickets | Down | Wins | Loses Winning % |
| 0 | 41 | 18 | 69.5% |
| 1 | 74 | 48 | 60.7% |
| 2 | 52 | 51 | 50.5% |
| 3 | 11 | 36 | 23.4% |
| 4 | 5 | 10 | 33.3% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
It's fairly clear here that losing wickets early hurts the probability of winning. This is not really a surprise, often teams bat their best batsmen at the top, and the subsequent batsmen have to take fewer risks if there are not many wickets left above them. However while there are a lot of incidents of teams losing 1 or 2 wickets, our sample size is quite small for the other number of wickets. I've graphed it, adding in a 95% confidence interval. This indicates what range we can expect the actual winning probability to lie in per wicket loss: The shorter the line, the more reliable the data.
We can clearly see the trend here. But we also notice the huge gap between being 2 down and being 3 down. There does seem to be a difference between losing 2 wickets or losing more than 2 wickets.
Accordingly I broke it down into 3 groups. Less than 2 wickets, 2 wickets or More than 2 wickets. Here's how that looks:
Roughly teams win two thirds of the matches where they lose less than 2 wickets, half of the matches where they lose two wickets and about a quarter of the matches where they lose more than 2 wickets.
I also broke it down further by team, and this holds true for almost every team. The only team that has won more than half of their matches when batting first and losing more than 2 wickets in the power play is Ireland. (Interestingly Ireland has the 4th best winning record of any team batting first, and then they are not far behind Pakistan, Sri Lanka and South Africa).
Sri Lanka win just under 80% of t20's when they lose 2 or less wickets in the power play, but 20% when they lose 2 or more wickets. England win just over 60% if they keep their wickets in hand, but only 20% when they lose 3 or more in the power play.
With the World T20 getting underway, how the teams approach the first 6 overs could be a fascinating thing to keep an eye on.
Creag
The Boar's Rock
- Joined
- May 19, 2009
- Messages
- 43,527
Creag
The Boar's Rock
- Joined
- May 19, 2009
- Messages
- 43,527
Desparately trying to follow SA's warm up game against Bangladesh A - but my only browser is IE 
and it is throwing all sorts of idiotic gobble-de-gook (like a 12 noballs for Lopsy)
That aside, why the heck did we get a warm up game against a fourth grade side? 56/6 and collapsing like Jenga :wtf:
and it is throwing all sorts of idiotic gobble-de-gook (like a 12 noballs for Lopsy) That aside, why the heck did we get a warm up game against a fourth grade side? 56/6 and collapsing like Jenga :wtf:
MickeyD
RIP
- Joined
- Oct 4, 2010
- Messages
- 139,117
playing pakistan tomorrow... http://livetv.sx/en/allupcomingsports/41/Desparately trying to follow SA's warm up game against Bangladesh A - but my only browser is IE
That aside, why the heck did we get a warm up game against a fourth grade side? 56/6 and collapsing like Jenga :wtf:
Creag
The Boar's Rock
- Joined
- May 19, 2009
- Messages
- 43,527
Aha. Thank you for that kind sir. That at least sets the lads a bit of a challenge.