Investing strategy.

BBSA said:
I'm not particularly interested in Bitcoin; I just find it interesting to see how Wingate will manage this.
Right now, I'm mostly invested in property and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF).
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Crypto Fear and Greed Index - Bitcoin Momentum Tracker

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index provides a score of 0 to 100, categorising bitcoin sentiment from extreme fear to extreme greed.
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Buy here

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Sell when greed is high
 
cguy said:
Yeah, and speculation without an edge is gambling. One either has to do their 10k hours to figure out how to do it well, and get that edge, or follow what the masses are doing, leverage their experience, while being aware of their inability to coordinate, and buy a portfolio of ETFs, cash, foreign and domestic exposure, mutual funds, etc., and hope for the best (or more accurately, the average).
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The 10 000 hours rule has been debunked hasn’t it? The new rule is just “read at least 10 books” to benefit off of the 10 000 hours of learning put in by others. That’s what I’m doing.
 
Short reading list:

How to make your first million (because then the next million becomes easier. thanks @3WA)
The Intelligent Investor (has some shockingly good common sense advice most people miss)
Money: Master the Game (particularly for Ray Dalio’s All Seasons Portfolio)
The Elements of Investing (thanks other forumite can’t remember your name)
The Psychology of Money

Lots of tangentially related books but that’s going to be niche… You kind of have to adapt everything you learn to your own personal goals. I try for an extremely lean budget for example, because on a long time horizon every cent matters. Temu is waste and decadence, robbing my future self. For others that mindset is not suitable.
 
BBSA said:
I'm not particularly interested in Bitcoin; I just find it interesting to see how Wingate will manage this.
Right now, I'm mostly invested in property and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF).
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Why bonds? Short investment horizon?
 
I know Berkshire has a massive pile of cash ready and I kind of get the recession argument, but I guess I buy too much into the AI buzz. Could be the economic black swan where we skip the recession. History keeps repeating itself until it doesn’t.
 
Looking at the jse overall today!

Equities are bleeding, even ETF’s dropped badly

Its bargain buying
 
Romeo_RX said:
I know Berkshire has a massive pile of cash ready and I kind of get the recession argument, but I guess I buy too much into the AI buzz. Could be the economic black swan where we skip the recession. History keeps repeating itself until it doesn’t.
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Berkshire always seems to have a lot of cash ready. Nobody knows what will happen and there are always talks about a looming recession. I think time in the market > timing the market for 99% of retail ETF investors who are not capable of finding good companies at low prices.
 
Romeo_RX said:
The 10 000 hours rule has been debunked hasn’t it? The new rule is just “read at least 10 books” to benefit off of the 10 000 hours of learning put in by others. That’s what I’m doing.
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Not that I can see. If people can read just 10 books to get where you are, then your edge is lost.
 
Trump says he’s going ahead with the 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico tomorrow. The recession that never came (because of the most fiscal stimulus the United States has ever seen over a five-year period in history outside of WWII) is now coming. A trade to bolster national security and pursue an alleged level playing field for a recession – the coming approval ratings on the President will tell the tale as to whether John and Jane Q Public see this is a good trade. I think not. You really need to have your head examined to be adding on risk to the portfolio right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1896667915073822787
 
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Sigh. There is always someone calling a recession every year and it pains me that I don’t have the knowledge to judge for myself. Even Rosenberg has been doing it for years now but blames fiscal stimulus for calling it too early. The other economists I follow have been calling a recession since… I can’t remember.

Wait for recession, buy at bargain prices. That’s a great strategy. We just need to know when the damn thing is actually going to happen.
 
Also, imagine playing it safe when AGI is a real possibility in the next few years. Insanity, IMO.
 
Berkshire doesn't hold cash in a giant stockpile waiting for a market crash to then pounce... ever
You can look back at their entire history and through all the crashes they've never suddenly thrown all their cash in a bought everything.

Their "cash" is held in bonds, debt, fixed deposits etc. They also do huge share buy backs, add that with Berkshires insurance company and that's why they have a large "cash" pile... but it's not cash like we think it is.

Buffett brains does not and has not ever tried to time the market. So anyone saying Berkshire is hoarding cash because there is a crash coming doesn't understand his investing strategy.
 
BBSA said:
Are people still cool with keeping their money in the S&P 500 even with Trump's trade war going on?
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Never held an S&P ETF, but I am mostly in STXWDM (Murica-dominated) and still averaging in each month. If it goes down, I continue, and that is good for me. If it goes up, I continue, and that is good for me. If it goes to zero, I move to the beach, eat braaied fish every day and become a philosopher, and that is a good thing for any man.
 
BBSA said:
Are people still cool with keeping their money in the S&P 500 even with Trump's trade war going on?
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Yes, depending on when you wanna cash out. The unnecessary damage that orange PoS is causing might actually turn out to be a good buying opportunity in the long run.
 
Bill Clitnon said:
Yes, depending on when you wanna cash out. The unnecessary damage that orange PoS is causing might actually turn out to be a good buying opportunity in the long run.
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spot on S&P is for long term investments for me - happy to stock up on "sale" prices now

last I checkd in 10 years plus trump wont be an issue and S&P will still be around
 
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