By Dan Retief
Going on Vodacom SupeRugby’s SuperBru group for the first time this season has been a chastening experience.
In the past few seasons, mostly because Graeme Joffe required me to make predictions on his Sportsfire radio programme, I kept a personal log and managed to average consistently above 70%. It was just win or lose, no margins, but still, as Joffers once remarked: “If you were a bookie you’d be making money.”
But with the advent of Vodacom’s Rugby Portal and having to provide a regular column I was persuaded to join the Vodacom Rugga group and have a go. I’d been fascinated to what extent my mates, plus acquaintances at the functions I attend, were gripped by the prediction game. If it wasn’t someone trying to get a forecast out of me it was someone else putting hand to forehead upon hearing a score and exclaiming that modern rugby fan’s mantra, “There goes my SuperBru!”
There were also, of course, the anal types who loved to advertise on Twitter how well they had either done or were still doing so I rather fancied I might, in fact, turn out to be quite a SuperBru guru.
How wrong can you be? I’m a member in the Vodacom Rugga group and after 13 rounds I find myself in the humiliating situation of being number 894 out of 1, 927 – and this is after I have recently moved up quite significantly! I decided to enter under a nom-de-plume, but if you have the time and care to look it’s there – one of the best rugby nicknames ever bestowed; mine courtesy of the great Welsh and British Lions centre, Ray Gravell.
You would think a rugby writer would have a bit of an edge, if only because we spend so much time busy with the game. It’s our job after all. We see all the teams almost as soon as they are announced, we’re aware of changes before most, we know about the injuries, and having done it so often we should have an historical perspective – not to mention gut feel. Yet I’ve been astonished at just how often I’ve got it wrong.
This last weekend, for instance, who would have thought the Waratahs, with their relatively impressive team sheet, would lose to the Force? Or that the Rebels would give the Blues such a hiding?
You obviously try to be a little cute by picking the wrong ’un, going against the home advantage rule (what a good bet that would have been the weekend just passed) or yielding to a sense that a team is due for a big one – but I haven’t pulled off one big shock prediction so far.
There was a lot of South African sentiment for the Cell C Sharks against the Hurricanes, given the latter team’s problems with injuries, but that was one result I got right. To me the Sharks just look to be a side with too many chiefs and not enough Indians, and no clear idea of how they want to play.
But now we’re in the home straight. My goal is to at least get into the top 500 before the last five rounds have been completed.
My not-so-super ’Bru perhaps shows just what a topsy-turvy season it’s been and how difficult it’s going to be to move up the table. For example, how about a long bet on which team will top the SA conference: will it be the DHL Stormers, the Vodacom Bulls or perhaps the Emirates Lions?
The Stormers currently top the conference with 34 points, the same tally as the Bulls but with a better points difference, so surely it has to be Duane Vermeulen’s men given a run-in which includes a bye followed by three of their last four games at home.
Against this the Bulls have an extra match but four away on tour, including the Brumbies and the Chiefs, with the last at home against the Cheetahs.
Weighted that way logic dictates it must be the Stormers – but don’t take my word for it!