Well i think it's clear the catholic church are not totally aligned with God's perfect will at every turn, so the correct answer is a bit of both really. God may occasionally influence things, especially in cases where prayer and humility has lead those who run the church to seek his guidance and will, but the clear failings of the catholic church shows He largely allows man's choices to play out. The broad concept of sowing and reaping has to play out within the wider system. Any influence he chooses to manifest generally plays out in that context because that's how he chooses to deal with free agents.
If you look at the story of Israel in the OT. When the Israelites obeyed God and lived holy lives, in accordance with the laws he had give them, God blessed them and often positively intervened on their behalf as a clear consequence of their obedience. But when they repeatedly chose to sin generation after generation he eventually distanced himself somewhat, eventually allowing Satan and Israel's enemies to overtake them and carry them away. People make good and bad choices, and those choices either have good or bad consequences. If the Catholic church sort themselves out and begin to do a better job more closely resembling the actual Gospel presented in scripture, then obviously as a consequence of that they will gain a closer relationship with God and thus the benefits that relationship brings.