poweralert stage 2.....

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Are there any stats that show the likely usage/consumption had there been zero loadshedding problems of the last decade or so?
 
lexity said:
Are there any stats that show the likely usage/consumption had there been zero loadshedding problems of the last decade or so?
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I suppose you could just look at demand figures for the period. But who knows how much higher that would have been if peeps weren't being as careful, or what business power-need changes has affected it all.
 
lexity said:
Are there any stats that show the likely usage/consumption had there been zero loadshedding problems of the last decade or so?
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Not really no, as there have been changes that have occured. Better load management is one of them.
 
lexity said:
Are there any stats that show the likely usage/consumption had there been zero loadshedding problems of the last decade or so?
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Estimates I saw (pre-the whole stage 6 continuous mess) was that the SA economy is somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 smaller than it would have been without loadshedding.

Considering how much more of the grid industry uses than homes do I'd imagine the impact on the grid from that economic increase would have been even higher than those size estimates.

They're all estimates though. No way to know for sure.
 
porchrat said:
Estimates I saw (pre-the whole stage 6 continuous mess) was that the SA economy is somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 smaller than it would have been without loadshedding.

Considering how much more of the grid industry uses than homes do I'd imagine the impact on the grid from that economic increase would have been even higher than those size estimates.

They're all estimates though. No way to know for sure.
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The seen vs the unseen.

Nobody is measuring the lost productivity from net producers leaving the country 'on holiday'. Or the investor's that silently decide to invest in their option-B, given the weak and weakening signals for protection of private property.

On the other hand there might be very little difference on the residential front, at least if you can afford to shift your consumption via the use of batteries. Whatever you 'lose' to LS you gain outside LS via charging of batteries.
 
lexity said:
The seen vs the unseen.

Nobody is measuring the lost productivity from net producers leaving the country 'on holiday'. Or the investor's that silently decide to invest in their option-B, given the weak and weakening signals for protection of private property.
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Honestly not sure how these estimates are done or whether they take this sort of thing into account. I would assume they attempt to.

I doubt it's ever something we will know accurately. It's devastating for sure. Probably more so than anything the ANC have done previously.

lexity said:
On the other hand there might be very little difference on the residential front, at least if you can afford to shift your consumption via the use of batteries. Whatever you 'lose' to LS you gain outside LS via charging of batteries.
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I think the number of people that can afford to move to battery backups is a tiny minority of the residential consumption.

The vast majority of Saffers are living in extreme poverty and they're also consuming electricity.

You can see it in Eskom's demand spikes. It's a couple of extra GWs at most off a base of 30GW or something. It's there, but it doesn't seem insanely significant to me.
 
porchrat said:
lexity said:
The seen vs the unseen.

Nobody is measuring the lost productivity from net producers leaving the country 'on holiday'. Or the investor's that silently decide to invest in their option-B, given the weak and weakening signals for protection of private property.
Click to expand...
Honestly not sure how these estimates are done or whether they take this sort of thing into account. I would assume they attempt to.

I doubt it's ever something we will know accurately. It's devastating for sure. Probably more so than anything the ANC have done previously.
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Yes.

It's been studied/ignored for a long time.


Check the publication date on that.
 
Seems it's Stage 0/2 until Wednesday, not sure what happens on Wednesday, but it's quite advantageous for some areas, Block 16 and 2 will have had 5 days of continous power.
 
Lupus said:
Seems it's Stage 0/2 until Wednesday, not sure what happens on Wednesday, but it's quite advantageous for some areas, Block 16 and 2 will have had 5 days of continous power.
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Mine is claiming until further notice, but anyway the rollercoaster should change soon enough
 
Lupus said:
Yup the weekend before was about a GW more, seems that on a weekend without loadshedding demand isn't that high... Go figure.
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I wonder how much load a single stage actually shifts into peak, I wish we had better historical data, if the sokolic dude had a db of all the historical data collected it would at least be a starting point :thinking: Anyone know who maintains the site?
 
So I see even Minister. Sputla is saying the Kusile plant which returned is currently only producing 550MW (i.e. half a stage worth of LS).
 
DarkSt0rm said:
I wonder how much load a single stage actually shifts into peak, I wish we had better historical data, if the sokolic dude had a db of all the historical data collected it would at least be a starting point :thinking: Anyone know who maintains the site?
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Andrew Sokolic
 
blaaislaai said:
My 4-5 skipped today.
Did expect it to be missed though as it usually happens on lower stages.
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You're lucky, mine was done. So I'll have a 23 hour break as my next one is 4 to 5 again in the morning.
Though last nights numbers do not look good availability was 26GW for some reason demand was 30GW, perhaps those inverters kicking in.
 
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