poweralert stage 2.....

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Kosmik said:
Both are not absolutes but we are starting at stage 4 so not much to kick up.
Click to expand...
Yeah true, but honestly that is where load shedding should've been in the first place, cover your peaks. It shouldn't be an all day affair but apparently quite a large part of the fleet did come back on the weekend, will see how long it lasts.
 
Looks like they ran out of diesel and cahora bassa is offline, not sure what possessed them to suspend loadshitting for 4 hours, maybe because it was sunny and windy and had 2GW extra coal for a day?:

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
1685946916814.png

System hourly demand and available capacity - Eskom Data Portal

Hourly demand is compared against available capacity, to indicate the amount of surplus/shortfall there was. Available capacity must be matched with the total RSA contracted demand.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
1685946971458.png
1685946950151.png1685947009425.png
 
Kosmik said:
Just for my thoughts on LS and the whole stage 6 by monday.

Yes, at 28/29 but:

  • Demand is supposed to hit around 33/34.
  • Sure its warmer in the day but that does not help peak because during the day more can be drawn from solar to supplement as well.
  • There is still a huge maintenance backlog that keeps getting pushed and pushed , so unless they use these lulls to do the maintenance, we are going to get bitten.
Personally, rather have a constant stage than bouts of nothing and use the excess capacity for maintenance.

Happily be wrong if so but that's my pessimistic thoughts.
Click to expand...

We won't see state 6 again, this month.
 
wingnut771 said:
Looks like they ran out of diesel and cahora bassa is offline, not sure what possessed them to suspend loadshitting for 4 hours, maybe because it was sunny and windy and had 2GW extra coal for a day?:
Click to expand...
Just politically sourced manipulations IMHO. We've been convinced for weeks that we're on the cliff edge with all the returns to stage 6, making us really worried about winter, then this...

Units are clearly being repaired well enough
Even sabotage seems to be under control to some manageable extent
Rocks getting into coal supply must also be much more under control

Otherwise we couldn't possibly be back on this S0 to S1 day and S2 to S4 night.
I'm also reminded of how when months ago a lot of Municipal areas were unknowingly ignoring LS instructions it somehow didn't affect performance, that strong lesson says we're constantly lied to.
 
wingnut771 said:
Looks like they ran out of diesel and cahora bassa is offline, not sure what possessed them to suspend loadshitting for 4 hours, maybe because it was sunny and windy and had 2GW extra coal for a day?:

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
View attachment 1535731

System hourly demand and available capacity - Eskom Data Portal

Hourly demand is compared against available capacity, to indicate the amount of surplus/shortfall there was. Available capacity must be matched with the total RSA contracted demand.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
View attachment 1535737
View attachment 1535735View attachment 1535741
Click to expand...
1685948044788.png
Yup they mention Cahora Bassa being off
 
wingnut771 said:
Looks like they ran out of diesel and cahora bassa is offline, not sure what possessed them to suspend loadshitting for 4 hours, maybe because it was sunny and windy and had 2GW extra coal for a day?:

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
View attachment 1535731

System hourly demand and available capacity - Eskom Data Portal

Hourly demand is compared against available capacity, to indicate the amount of surplus/shortfall there was. Available capacity must be matched with the total RSA contracted demand.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
View attachment 1535737
View attachment 1535735View attachment 1535741
Click to expand...
Demand was low enough on the weekend not to have to import or run the OCGT.
 
Kosmik said:
Demand was low enough on the weekend not to have to import or run the OCGT.
Click to expand...
Demand was the same on the previous sunday but look at all the diesel and moz imports they used then on the 28th. The only difference is more coal.
 
wingnut771 said:
Why not run the OCGTs instead of having egg on their face having to backtrack their no loadshitting call on sat evening?
Click to expand...
We're never going to make full sense of it all. Main issue I think is the ANC in-fighting, can't make up their minds about what direction to take.
 
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