Rain and storm for Cpt

[Pineapple Smurf]

Looks like another great day today weather wise.
And tomorrow's forecast also sunny but slightly cooler and low wind. Might take my kids up Table Mountain tomorrow as this weather is perfect for such a trip.

Im hiking up on Sunday morning and taking the cable car down, i have a Cable Car Card
If you wanna take kidz up check this out i got yesterday from them https://www.tablemountain.net/content/page/kidz-season

 

[Craig_]

moan moan moan
yar such a pussy
now go away and be miserable in Clanwilliam for your birthday weekend with your homos. And stop talking kak on this thread, we have another thread where we vent, tsek.

Weather will seemingly be nice this weekend. But I'm a dry wine person. Except mcc's, there I don't mind a bit of sugar.

 

[Gordon_R]

Looks like another great day today weather wise.
And tomorrow's forecast also sunny but slightly cooler and low wind. Might take my kids up Table Mountain tomorrow as this weather is perfect for such a trip.

A little bit of cloud over the mountain this morning (Fri 26th), as a cold-front passes harmlessly to the south of CT...

 

[Craig_]

A little bit of cloud over the mountain this morning (Fri 26th), as a cold-front passes harmlessly to the south of CT...

Stellies was fogged up this morning, badly. And not a car insight with rear fogs on, in fact many driving without lights.

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

Stellies was fogged up this morning, badly. And not a car insight with rear fogs on, in fact many driving without lights.

lots of mist as well from Swest --> CT
Normal for this time of the year every year

 

[Craig_]

lots of mist as well from Swest --> CT
Normal for this time of the year every year

You are a brave man to tackle the roads in this weather on a bike

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

You are a brave man to tackle the roads in this weather on a bike

Love it Even nicer in winter when it rains, have fun on my jetski everyday 100km round trip.
Hail is a bit scary on a bike, very slippery but its stable at over 140km/h on a bike, just crappy braking though

 

[SeRpEnT]

Im hiking up on Sunday morning and taking the cable car down, i have a Cable Car Card
If you wanna take kidz up check this out i got yesterday from them https://www.tablemountain.net/content/page/kidz-season

Yah that's the reason we wanna go. For a change I can afford to go!

 

[Gordon_R]

Cold fronts are already starting to brush the SW-Cape this month, but however impressive they look on satellite images, most of the wind and rain is still far south of CT. This is the next "weak" front, due on Tues 30th:

 

[Geoff.D]

And completely inline with the AAO measured index and predictions for the next few days up to the 4th May. The fronts will touch the Sw Cape but brush past.

 

[Dimpie (JIGSAW)]

Stellies was fogged up this morning, badly. And not a car insight with rear fogs on, in fact many driving without lights.

Yes, and then they want to drive with the damn things on on a crystal clear evening

 

[Gordon_R]

And completely inline with the AAO measured index and predictions for the next few days up to the 4th May. The fronts will touch the Sw Cape but brush past.

The AAO is computed on the position of the 700hPa isolines, which represents the lower third of the atmosphere. I prefer to look at the 500hPa isolines, which is almost exactly half the atmosphere. In either case it is pretty clear that not much is happening in the next 5-7 days, compared to mid-winter, when we have gales and snow.

Predicted 500hPa isolines at 12Z on Tues 30th:



Edit: By contrast, the forecast for Fri 3rd shows a more substantive upper-air disturbance:

 

[aktiv]

Winter rains are starting later in the year - study
https://www.news24.com/Green/News/winter-rains-are-starting-later-in-the-year-study-20190429

 

[Gordon_R]

Winter rains are starting later in the year - study
https://www.news24.com/Green/News/winter-rains-are-starting-later-in-the-year-study-20190429

Interesting, but not (yet) conclusive. There is always a caveat:

further studies would need to be done

 

[Geoff.D]

Ja the standard way out for all the global warmers. Just in case they are not correct.

 

[Geoff.D]

The TS map for today. Rather unusual for a total absence of storms anywhere!

 

[Gordon_R]

The TS map for today. Rather unusual for a total absence of storms anywhere!

True, but it highlights one of many ambiguities in weather charts, the minimum threshold. We actually had 20% thundershowers over Cape Town this afternoon, though you might be forgiven if you didn't notice them!

 

[EMAM]

True, but it highlights one of many ambiguities in weather charts, the minimum threshold. We actually had 20% thundershowers over Cape Town this afternoon, though you might be forgiven if you didn't notice them!

View attachment 651482

I saw lightning earlier but didn't hear thunder

 

[Geoff.D]

Yes I did. The chart above shows the prediction up to 17:00. Your Radar map shows what happened only an hour later!
Remember, I don't have access to those radar charts. The SAWS weather storm tracker clearly shows what happened after 17:00., which is the only bit of active radar us plebs have available to us in the public domain.

BTW, the weatherman on tv this morning claimed that the increase in thunderstorms in Cape Town can be attributed "Global Warming"

 

[Gordon_R]

Yes I did. The chart above shows the prediction up to 17:00. Your Radar map shows what happened only an hour later!
Remember, I don't have access to those radar charts. The SAWS weather storm tracker clearly shows what happened after 17:00., which is the only bit of active radar us plebs have available to us in the public domain.

Actually your answer highlights 3 more problems with charts:
- The date and time for which they are valid is not the current time
- The date and time when they were generated was several hours ago
- The data on many charts is GMT, while local time is GMT + 2 hours

Edit: Good charts specify all of these dates and times, bad charts show few or no dates and times.

There were isolated storms earlier, but the latest chart was more impressive and worth posting.

Oooh, just saw flash of lightning now! Rumble too, must be close...

BTW, "free" radar will expire tomorrow (30 Apr), so that may be the last one I post.