Rain and storm for Cpt

[backstreetboy]

^^ lol ya'll never heard of global heating? Hot as balls here.

 

[Craig_]

no im not ready yet...roof..gutters..just chill man..go for a dip in the ocean..its nice and cool that side...

Add a leaking roof that I haven't gotten to to that list and it could just as well be mine.

 

[dj2381]

Some potentially interesting weather on the way according to windy, the worst seems to be missing us.

 

[Gordon_R]

A cutoff-low/Black South Easter will develop along the SW-Cape coast on Wed 5th, and persist for several days. The amount of rainfall is very difficult to predict (even one day in advance), but could reach 25-50mm in places. The peak is likely to be in the Overberg, and limited to coastal areas (and offshore).

The charts show something like this:



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs.t00z.totp.day3.safrica.gif

 

[Geoff.D]

There is quite a bit of moisture moving down from the tropics which makes things interesting and may lead to rain north of the mountains in the little Karoo

 

[dualmeister]

Is this might be true

 

[Geoff.D]

Is this might be true


View attachment 1062265

If you look at the analysis done of the weather patterns recorded at the time, there are similarities, but not strong enough to predict the same sort of rain as that event just yet.
The AAO index is not the same, the moisture content coming down from the tropics is not as pronounced.
So early days to make wild predictions.

 

[Scooby_Doo]

Sigh,

better part of 18 months working from home, and the first day I have to go to a work thing its raining ****ed up. Me and my bike problems.

 

[Icemanbrfc]

If you look at the analysis done of the weather patterns recorded at the time, there are similarities, but not strong enough to predict the same sort of rain as that event just yet.
The AAO index is not the same, the moisture content coming down from the tropics is not as pronounced.
So early days to make wild predictions.

But there is heavy rain predicted for Thursday though isnt it?

 

[Geoff.D]

Along the coast yes. Less north of the mountains.
The mountains around Sutherland are the wild card in all of this.
Heavy rain there and flash flooding could easily happen.

 

[Gordon_R]

But there is heavy rain predicted for Thursday though isnt it?

Several days of rain, varying in intensity and location. It's hard to make detailed predictions, but look at this animation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

Then look at the forecast issued 6 hours later. Similar but different: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/06/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

 

[Geoff.D]

For those interested, here is a link to the technical report on the Laingsburg 1981 flood.

1981 laingsburg flood weather analysis - Google Search

 

[Gordon_R]

SAWS press release:

Brrrace yourself! Heavy rainfall, gale force winds expected over parts of Western Cape | News24

Western Cape residents can expect adverse weather conditions from Wednesday evening.

www.news24.com

 

[Icemanbrfc]

Several days of rain, varying in intensity and location. It's hard to make detailed predictions, but look at this animation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

Then look at the forecast issued 6 hours later. Similar but different: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/06/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

Thanks

 

[EMAM]

Watching a magnificent lightning show over false bay (well it looks like it's over that area)

 

[Icemanbrfc]

Starting to rain now nicely..

 

[Gordon_R]

Starting to rain now nicely..

Please specify your location. It's bone dry in my area.

 

[dualmeister]

It's bone dry in my area.

Same here. Sometimes it doesn't even get past the boerewors curtain.

 

[MirageF1]

Nothing here in S Subs, except overcast weather. Thursday looks to be more certainty of rain and strong winds.

 

[Gordon_R]

Same here. Sometimes it doesn't even get past the boerewors curtain.

Cutoff lows are very unusual systems, not your normal winter cold front. The wind directions are broadly circular, and the location and amount of precipitation are sporadic. Generally a clockwise spiral, with the heaviest rain in the south-east quadrant of the surface low. The conditions you experience will be relative to the position of the low, which will evolve in a wobbly track over time.