Rain and storm for Cpt

Gordon_R

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Geoff.D

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There is quite a bit of moisture moving down from the tropics which makes things interesting and may lead to rain north of the mountains in the little Karoo
 
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Geoff.D

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If you look at the analysis done of the weather patterns recorded at the time, there are similarities, but not strong enough to predict the same sort of rain as that event just yet.
The AAO index is not the same, the moisture content coming down from the tropics is not as pronounced.
So early days to make wild predictions.
 

Scooby_Doo

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Sigh,

better part of 18 months working from home, and the first day I have to go to a work thing its raining ****ed up. Me and my bike problems.
 

Icemanbrfc

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If you look at the analysis done of the weather patterns recorded at the time, there are similarities, but not strong enough to predict the same sort of rain as that event just yet.
The AAO index is not the same, the moisture content coming down from the tropics is not as pronounced.
So early days to make wild predictions.
But there is heavy rain predicted for Thursday though isnt it?
 

Geoff.D

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Along the coast yes. Less north of the mountains.
The mountains around Sutherland are the wild card in all of this.
Heavy rain there and flash flooding could easily happen.
 

Gordon_R

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Icemanbrfc

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Gordon_R

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Same here. Sometimes it doesn't even get past the boerewors curtain.

Cutoff lows are very unusual systems, not your normal winter cold front. The wind directions are broadly circular, and the location and amount of precipitation are sporadic. Generally a clockwise spiral, with the heaviest rain in the south-east quadrant of the surface low. The conditions you experience will be relative to the position of the low, which will evolve in a wobbly track over time.
 

Rocco1

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1620206241375.png
windy 72hr rain accumulation - the bottom area keep shifting with the nature of the centre of the low position changing and needing to check reg updates. 150mm over land without orographic effects
 
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