Rain and storm for Cpt

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"bad flooding reported in Riviersonderend. R317 closed Bonnivale-Bredasdorp. Breede river flooding expected."

And this is how we get salt water crocodiles....
 
Gordon_R said:
The models are very fickle. It will rain this weekend, but the amounts are hard to predict.
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I've seen that, yes. Simply in the fluctuations for Saturday where it started out as 10mm, peaked around 40mm and now at 18mm.
 
Gordon_R said:
The models are very fickle. It will rain this weekend, but the amounts are hard to predict.
Click to expand...

Does it still make sense to still run your own weather station?

For me that lives in Tygervalley in a concrete jungle I suppose my microenvironment (Atmospheric pressure) should be different than a few kilometers from here.

IE, if I use an Arduino with a barometer, I should be able to forecast more accurately my own weather?
 
Thor said:
Does it still make sense to still run your own weather station?

For me that lives in Tygervalley in a concrete jungle I suppose my microenvironment (Atmospheric pressure) should be different than a few kilometers from here.

IE, if I use an Arduino with a barometer, I should be able to forecast more accurately my own weather?
Click to expand...

Weather stations and forecasts are completely different things. A weather station tells you what conditions are right now. It cannot make any useful predictions.

Barometers were used to make forecasts in the 19th century, but only in the absence of anything else. Computer models now use thousands of inputs, from weather stations worldwide, as well as satellites, ships, aircraft, weather balloons etc.
 
Gordon_R said:
Weather stations and forecasts are completely different things. A weather station tells you what conditions are right now. It cannot make any useful predictions.

Barometers were used to make forecasts in the 19th century, but only in the absence of anything else. Computer models now use thousands of inputs, from weather stations worldwide, as well as satellites, ships, aircraft, weather balloons etc.
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Trying to say, if my data points are localized then my predictions (a separate program & algorithms I will write), should in theory be more accurate for my localized location?

(The goal is to learn more about the weather in the process)

Alternatively, can one feed weather information from a DIY station to the big forecasting organizations?
 
Thor said:
Trying to say, if my data points are localized then my predictions (a separate program & algorithms I will write), should in theory be more accurate for my localized location?

(The goal is to learn more about the weather in the process)

Alternatively, can one feed weather information from a DIY station to the big forecasting organizations?
Click to expand...
You should be able to establish a weather station that complies with SAWS specifications and register it.
And, whatever Gordon says, monitoring barometric pressure is still a very good indication of what the weather is going to do in the next say 2 hours provided you have a good grasp of the basic principles. But long term forecasting using local data is just about impossible.
 
Thor said:
Trying to say, if my data points are localized then my predictions (a separate program & algorithms I will write), should in theory be more accurate for my localized location?

(The goal is to learn more about the weather in the process)

Alternatively, can one feed weather information from a DIY station to the big forecasting organizations?
Click to expand...

The key point is that weather collection is geographically dispersed, and readings from nearby stations do not provide statistically meaningful enhancement. If there were 50,000 backyard weather stations added in a given urban area, it would not make the forecasts any more accurate. If 50,000 weather stations were equally spaced around the world, that would be fantastic. Unfortunately 70% of the world's surface is water, so unless you own a fleet of ships or an aircraft, the data is not going to help much.

Due to circulation of the atmosphere, anything you measure now cannot influence the weather over your location for more than 3-6 hours. Any correlation that you find will mostly be with weather elsewhere, which is ultimately not useful.

Sorry to be so blunt, but that really is not how weather forecasting works, contrary to what manufacturers of weather stations may suggest in their marketing materials.
 
This morning's SAWS ship synoptic chart shows a large and complex frontal system positioned SW of CT. It will start to have effects on land from later this evening (Fri 14th), with an extended period of unsettled weather on Sat 15th. Winds are likely to be moderate, with heavy showers at time. There will be a sharp drop in temperature in the wake of the system.

20210514_082834.png

Source: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/specialised/ma_sy.gif
 
Gordon_R said:
This morning's SAWS ship synoptic chart shows a large and complex frontal system positioned SW of CT. It will start to have effects on land from later this evening (Fri 14th), with an extended period of unsettled weather on Sat 15th. Winds are likely to be moderate, with heavy showers at time. There will be a sharp drop in temperature in the wake of the system.

View attachment 1068079

Source: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/specialised/ma_sy.gif
Click to expand...
Love the new colour coding on these synoptic charts!
 
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