Rain and storm for Cpt

[Dimpie (JIGSAW)]

We need it ... TWK dam looking suspect and can do with a refill

 

[rph72]

My Dam app confirms the rain is late compared to last year. Hopefully the dam levels will catch up after this week.

 

[hj2k_x]

A lot of the models show an 'average' rainfall, which includes the high mountains around the SW-Cape, as well as the low-lying areas. Orographic effects mean that rainfall over the mountains can easily be 2-3 times that of the lowlands. Localised flooding is likely in places, particularly where drainage has not been maintained (autumn leaves, etc).

This is certainly going to be a prolonged wet event, but no more than a typical severe winter storm. Snow is also forecast at the trailing end of the event (Wed 15th).

This is a lot for Milnerton. Drainage here is not the best either...

 

[Gordon_R]

This is a lot for Milnerton. Drainage here is not the best either...

I think you missed my point about models. That forecast is 'wrong' and Milnerton will not get nearly that amount of rain...

The predicted rainfall chart for the next 7 days shows much heavier rainfall over the mountains, and relatively dry (<50mm) up the West Coast:



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/18/gfs_precip_week1_safrica.html

 

[hj2k_x]

I think you missed my point about models. That forecast is 'wrong' and Milnerton will not get nearly that amount of rain...

The predicted rainfall chart for the next 7 days shows much heavier rainfall over the mountains, and relatively dry (
View attachment 1326646

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/18/gfs_precip_week1_safrica.html

Let us see. This forecast app has been pretty accurate to date.

 

[Gordon_R]

Various model runs are producing slightly different outcomes, but there is no doubt that this event will be significant and relatively widespread, with snow reaching the Drakensberg by Wed 15th:



Source: https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3to6days/snow

 

[capd]

Just started in Fish Hoek.

 

[DapperDanMan]

Let us see. This forecast app has been pretty accurate to date.

So that is the name of the app?

 

[saor]

Yusss here's the rain!

 

[yebocan]

Professional weather forecast

50+ weather layers, weather radar and satellite

www.windy.com

 

[WAslayer]

Unfortunately, this rain is unlikely to do too much to dam levels.. soil needs to saturate first before significant run off will make it to the dams..

 

[Gordon_R]

Moderately heavy rain started just before 8pm in Kenilworth. About 15mm in gauge by 9:15pm (a bit quieter now). The Milnerton webcam shows rather light rain away from the mountain during the same period.

 

[ArmatageShanks]

Moderately heavy rain started just before 8pm in Kenilworth. About 15mm in gauge by 9:15pm (a bit quieter now). The Milnerton webcam shows rather light rain away from the mountain during the same period.

Ke?

/Checks outside, no clouds

/Checks Windy, no clouds.....

 

[WAslayer]

A measly 3.1mm in Bellville thus far...

 

[capd]

Hasn’t been all that much rain. Hopefully lots more coming.

 

[air]

Gardens/CapeTown - yep, right by Table Mountain and Lions Head should see 50mm today... Was pretty decent last night and during the time but no clue how much.

 

[Gordon_R]

Another 30mm overnight in Kenilworth, 45mm cumulative total so far.

As noted before, this is a large slow-moving multi-day event, with repeated cold-fronts. Initially the rain will mostly be orographic (much heavier near the mountains), but later will become more showery (cold unstable air), producing more widespread rain.

The SAWS ship synoptic chart shows the deep low SW of Cape Town:



Source: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/specialised/ma_sy.gif

 

[dualmeister]

What rain? Little bit at about 9pm later night then nothing since

 

[CTBP]

Really coming down now Milnerton side.

Edit: Aaaand its gone.

 

[absynth]

It still feels like evening under the mountain.Extremely dark.
Getting a whopping 22w from solar panels.