Rain and storm for Cpt

[wingnut771]

Where do you get 4 months? We're mid-way through July, it's about a month and a half.

May this year could hardly have been described as winter.

Probably counting when the raining started.

 

[newby_investor]

Did we start getting rain mid-April? I can't say I noticed, and until late May I was cycling to work most days.

 

[Gordon_R]

Did we start getting rain mid-April? I can't say I noticed, and until late May I was cycling to work most days.

Check when the dam levels started rising. Many were full by the first week of June. See: https://resource.capetown.gov.za/do...ity research reports and review/damlevels.pdf

 

[Mortymoose]

Long range forecasts show significantly cooler conditions for CT next week, particularly from Fri 28th onwards:

Long term weather forecast for Cape Town

Weather forecast for Cape Town for the next 10 days.

www.yr.no

This particular model run shows a maximum of 11C on Sat 29th, followed by a minimum of -1C (maximum 13C) on Sun 30th. This seems an extreme value, and is a number that I have not experienced in many decades of living in CT. Further model runs will be interesting to follow...

That's only coz I got 12 mates going on our annual Winter Camp to a remote abandoned mine in the Namib Desert..... but check this, tomorrow, we getting 1 feckin degree!!!!

Global Warming My Feckin Arse!

 

[newby_investor]

Check when the dam levels started rising. Many were full by the first week of June. See: https://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City research reports and review/damlevels.pdf

Oy, there are too many graphs there for a Saturday afternoon.

I'm not convinced that rain == winter. Temperatures were quite mild, in line with what I'd expect for autumn.

 

[wingnut771]

Oy, there are too many graphs there for a Saturday afternoon.

I'm not convinced that rain == winter. Temperatures were quite mild, in line with what I'd expect for autumn.

call it winter rains. It rains there in "winter".

 

[WAslayer]

Oy, there are too many graphs there for a Saturday afternoon.

I'm not convinced that rain == winter. Temperatures were quite mild, in line with what I'd expect for autumn.

Months of the year certainly does not equal winter...

 

[Gordon_R]

The long-range forecasts are still very uncertain, but there is no doubt that a significant weather event will reach the SW-Cape overnight on Fri 28th into Sat 29th. Current forecasts show a mix between a cold-front and a cutoff-low, with the potential for heavy rain and snow, and possibly strong winds. This chart shows the possible rainfall distribution on Sat 29th:



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_precip_24h_safrica.html

 

[Gordon_R]

The outlook for rain and snow over the weekend (Sat 29th and Sun 30th) remains high for the W-Cape and parts of the N-Cape and E-Cape, though not extending particularly far over the interior of the country:



Source: https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3to6days/snow

 

[Gordon_R]

The 'first' day of the upcoming major weather event (Sat 29th) shows extremely cold daytime temperatures over the western coast of SA, and far up into central Namibia, with widespread snow expected (see above). Cold conditions will spread eastwards, but exit along the southern half of SA on Sun 30th, without reaching much further into the interior.



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/fcsts_safrica.shtml

 

[Gordon_R]

The outlook for rain and snow over the weekend (Sat 29th and Sun 30th) remains high for the W-Cape and parts of the N-Cape and E-Cape, though not extending particularly far over the interior of the country:

View attachment 1561718

Source: https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3to6days/snow

Recent model runs show variations in the likely areas of heaviest precipitation, but widespread heavy snow:

 

[Cage Rattler]

Bad weather from end of next week for quite some time again .... I left Cape Town end of April and returned two weeks ago. Basically perfect weather from the exact day I came back and missed all the bad stuff. Happens all the time!

All according to plan. A perfect escape from the cold weather in Cape Town since I left last Friday and now a week of balmy weather up here in Gauteng which started when I arrived. Now leave early next week for Europe for a few weeks so good luck to the Gauteng guys, I guess the weather might then take a turn for the worse .. lol.

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

Friday

Saturday

 

[saor]

Friday

Saturday

Voetsek with your gloomy outlook. We want sunshine.

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

Voetsek with your gloomy outlook. We want sunshine.

I love the rain more than the sun

 

[blaaislaai]

Voetsek with your gloomy outlook. We want sunshine.

No.

It’s the winter lover’s chance to be happy now

 

[Gordon_R]

Recent model runs show variations in the likely areas of heaviest precipitation, but widespread heavy snow:

View attachment 1562264

The rainfall distribution continues to change, but there is no doubt that this will be a major snow event for most of the southern half of SA. This chart shows the outlook for the next 3 days (including Sat 29th), but heavy falls will occur over parts of the E-Cape on Sun 30th (not shown).



Source: https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3days/snow

 

[blaaislaai]

She's been pouring down quite nicely here in the Helderberg side.
Huge amounts of water

 

[Gordon_R]

This event has been unfolding a bit slower than I envisioned, with intermittent gaps and moderately heavy rain. The wind hasn't picked up much, but has swung to southerly now, and will be quite strong in places as the surface low intensifies and moves eastwards.

We had about 40mm overnight in our gauge in Kenilworth. The SAEON Dwarsberg (Jonkershoek mountain catchment) site reported 76mm up to midnight, with scattered rain since then.

It is already rather cold, but will actually get colder as the wind picks up, and the cold-core upper trough moves in over land this morning. It has already started snowing over the high mountains of the SW-Cape, and the snow will increase during the day, and spread eastwards into Sun 30th (as shown above).

A further weaker cold front will brush the SW-Cape coast overnight on Sun 30th into Mon 31st. Thereafter it will clear slowly, and no further rain is likely for the whole of next week (Tues 1st Aug onwards).

 

[The_Mowgs]

This event has been unfolding a bit slower than I envisioned, with intermittent gaps and moderately heavy rain. The wind hasn't picked up much, but has swung to southerly now, and will be quite strong in places as the surface low intensifies and moves eastwards.

We had about 40mm overnight in our gauge in Kenilworth. The SAEON Dwarsberg (Jonkershoek mountain catchment) site reported 76mm up to midnight, with scattered rain since then.

It is already rather cold, but will actually get colder as the wind picks up, and the cold-core upper trough moves in over land this morning. It has already started snowing over the high mountains of the SW-Cape, and the snow will increase during the day, and spread eastwards into Sun 30th (as shown above).

A further weaker cold front will brush the SW-Cape coast overnight on Sun 30th into Mon 31st. Thereafter it will clear slowly, and no further rain is likely for the whole of next week (Tues 1st Aug onwards).

Hopefully this is the last rain ever!