Rain and storm for Cpt

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mercurial said:
It is quite astonishing, if that is true. AI is used especially to identify these sorts of things. It seems the perfect fit for AI.
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how would AI be used to identify these sort of things? magic?
 
saturnz said:
how would AI be used to identify these sort of things? magic?
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From what I understand, they look at past data to estimate what the weather will be. It will be a lot more accurate if they use AI to do this. Almost every industry is using it and is producing amazing things at a rapid and accurate rate.
 
mercurial said:
From what I understand, they look at past data to estimate what the weather will be. It will be a lot more accurate if they use AI to do this. Almost every industry is using it and is producing amazing things at a rapid and accurate rate.
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That's how weather forecasts might be done if there was only one place that data was measured. Modern weather forcecasting is a lot more complex, and involves a worldwide system of data collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting

P.S. Your comments indicate a lack of comprehension of reality, and your response to my comment seems even more misplaced.
 
Gordon_R said:
That's how weather forecasts might be done if there was only one place that data was measured. Modern weather forcecasting is a lot more complex, and involves a worldwide system of data collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting

P.S. Your comments indicate a lack of comprehension of reality, and your response to my comment seems even more misplaced.
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Cool story, bro.
 
mercurial said:
Cool story, bro.
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LOL... I'm inclined to suggest all AI could do is take existing weather models and make assumptions based on that. Perhaps improve existing algorithms, but it wont rewrite what we know today about weather forecasting. Now I could be wrong, but so could you. And Im yet to see any evidence of the contrary :crylaugh:
 
mercurial said:
It is quite astonishing, if that is true. AI is used especially to identify these sorts of things. It seems the perfect fit for AI.
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No you missed my point.
The meteorologists actually do know better (as opposed to what you may think).
Use of neural networks (or AI as you refer to it) in climate or even weather forecasting is something being chased by what I think is the IT sector.
Folk falling into the big data camp.
There are many uses for such techniques, but describing natural systems is not one of them.
Particularly the climate system, which includes oceans, land and atmosphere.
These big data people want desperately to get into the atmospheric sciences because they feel they can solve everything using a technique that they may think is new. It's really not, but advances in computing power have brought it to the forefront.
They think, as you, that it's a perfect fit. It's really not. And it takes precious time convincing someone from outside the field that it can't work the way they think it can. All you are doing is massaging the data to squeeze out a prediction without a physical basis.
This also brings me to a point that the models are much more useful than for just predicting something. They are used for actually figuring why a thing happened.
 
Back on topic, the rain is rapidly approaching Cape Town, likely to arrive in the next hour according to the SAWS radar.

Several things look different from from typical cold-fronts (like we had on Monday).
The cloud base is currently very high (above the top of Table Mt).
Orographic enhancement will be limited over the mountain catchments.
The showers look very patchy, spread out in position and time.
A lot of precipitation and wind will follow in the subsequent 12 hours.
 
Gardens/CBD - decent rain this side.
Jonkershoek still not off the mark, hoping for nothing less than 50 :-)
 
Most of the rain is currently over the South Peninsula. Still early in the season, until fronts move further inland.

air said:
Gardens/CBD - decent rain this side.
Jonkershoek still not off the mark, hoping for nothing less than 50 :-)
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The SAWS is predicting heavy rain, but that does not mean a lot, it just means high intensity for short durations.

Orographic effects are likely to be limited, so SAEON Dwarsberg is unlikely to reach 50mm IMO.
 
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