Even the Takealot merger will have it's issues - if you missed the 702 interview - listen to this to put it into context -
https://soundcloud.com/primediabroadcasting/shapeshifter-kim-reid-14-january-2015
While a 1bn Rand investment is significant, the cash-burn rate is going to be insane:
- After the merger the new entity sits with over 900 staff. It is obvious that the majority of staff will be laid off, but staff expense will easily amount to 15-20m per month (if you work on a low average salary of 15K/pm per staff - I think that total staff cost at current levels would be over R100m/per year)
- The new entity will build two 30,000m2 warehouses - if you look at latest technology in warehousing and if those warehouses are build from scratch it will cost about 80-100m per warehouse
- There will be a huge amount of technical issues (Kalahari runs Hybris on SAP and Takealot runs a mix of Mysql, PHP, Python, Django, AWS) and Kalahari needs to support warranties for at least 3 years - so you either run the old system in parallel until you switch it off or you migrate order records over - which will have it's own challenges.
- The 1bn turnover goal in 5 years is very low (according to the interview it is for the combined entity). I thought that both would each do about 300-400m/pa already (this is not a lot - about 30m per month or roughly 50,000 orders)
As long as your online business is based on commodity products, even your customer service and speedy fulfilment will not be a competitive edge for your sustainability. It is clear that Alibaba/Amazon will enter the local market within the next 5 years (they have to, as Walmart is currently pushing in) and it is doubtful that an Amazon/Alibaba would buy out Takealot (which would go at a 3-4bn Rand valuation) - this would be cash wasted and Amazon for example has been very efficient in opening up local offices.
The electronics-/computer online-market is currently being eroded by the big players literally charging out at cost+VAT and we all know that this is unsustainable and will need to rebalance. Many of the smaller players ignore current opportunities and eventually burn out.
BTW: Naspers is busy selling off Allegro which was initially acquired for over 10bn Rand in 2007 - makes one wonder where this cash will go.