SA Politics Thread Part 10 : The GNU Has Crashed

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The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1910926874173145273
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Only substantial economic growth can rescue the governing party from an accelerating slide in support, to forestall a local election bloodbath in 2026 and general election oblivion in 2029. If the ANC is serious about implementing the kind of policies necessary — there is a big question mark whether it can abandon its doctrinaire socialist affectations without dividing the party further — it is only the DA that has both the ministerial expertise and public support to achieve this.




The ANC with 159 MPs ((40% representation) depends heavily on the DA’s 87 MPs (22%), given that combined all other eight partners in the GNU muster only 41 MPs (10%). While the ANC is able, at a push, to cobble together a parliamentary majority on contentious issues without the DA, as last week’s passage of the Budget framework showed, it will always be a nerve-wracking and destabilising process. The more rats and mice parties there are involved, the more difficult it will be for the ANC to find consensus, the more trade-offs or buy-offs the ANC will have to make, and the more vulnerable it will be to disruption by an MK and EFF who are pulling in a diametrically opposite direction.
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Yet the DA, however dearly it wants to be in the GNU, will not remain if it’s at the expense of being the ANC’s prop or fig leaf.


Against this backdrop, it has done precisely the right thing. Stay in the game, for now. Let the ANC flail.
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I'd say these are my favourite parts.

Everything hinges on today's talks.
 
Sultan Mustafa said:
Between ANC and DA. If things go ok, I think we might see something tomorrow.

But if it's a cluster****, expect furious tweeting by tonight.
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With MK out it's a straight choice between DA and EFF. Either way they're going to be fighting about policy. With the EFF they'll also be fighting over positions, and will need deep pockets for brown envelopes...
 
Sultan Mustafa said:
Between ANC and DA. If things go ok, I think we might see something tomorrow.

But if it's a cluster****, expect furious tweeting by tonight.
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It’ll probably go okay. I think the ANC might realize they’re out of options. They need the DA to stay in the GNU.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
With MK out it's a straight choice between DA and EFF. Either way they're going to be fighting about policy. With the EFF they'll also be fighting over positions, and will need deep pockets for brown envelopes...
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The MK has been getting very restless and desperate for not being able to govern KZN with their 45%.
The tone of the SG about the ANC not being an enemy should suggest where the wind is blowing. With the local elections coming up, I doubt the MK would still like to find themselves being the biggest party that is not in government in KZN.

The ANC and DA fallout opens a whole lot of possibilities, the ANC's relationship with the DA is broken, no matter how much both of them would still like to see things work out.

So in short, I totally don't see any easy solution out of this, I don't see the GNU continuing as it is currently.
 
TheChamp said:
So in short, I totally don't see any easy solution out of this, I don't see the GNU continuing as it is currently.
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The GNU will be just fine. The ANC will humble themselves and continue to work with the DA once this impass has been resolved.
 
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Priapus said:
The GNU will be just fine. The ANC will humble themselves and continue to work with the DA once this impass has been resolved.
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It's going to come up again when it's time to vote on the remaining two budget bills...
 
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