SA Politics Thread Part 11: The GNU Normal

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TheChamp said:
Mashatile is the one who dragged the Nkandla Thief kicking and screaming out of Mahlamba Ndlopfu when Cyril and others were busy entertaining his stories of finishing his term, I have no idea where the buddy buddy relationship the media and X is talking about coming from.
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He was also screwed when Zuma fired him as minister. He then (supposedly) grew a conscience and spoke up during Zuma Must Fall, which Zuma would never have forgotten. The only thing that both of them have in common is some version of RET, beyond that they hate each other...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
A lot of middle class voters voted for him in 2021, thinking it was an alternative to the DA.

Then went the populist route and joined RET in playing the race card, and being openly misleading and racist. Who tf wants to vote a guy who hates you. Even the wife donor struggled at times to defend Herman's positions.

I think ASA ActionSA have alienated their white support base. But they might gain some black votes who this message resonates with.

But the most important reason why they will take a beating, is they still haven't had their elective conference. This doesn't instill confidence in voters, and party members, that the party has enough integrity to elect the best people for the positions.

As long as Herman is running a personality cult that's centred around him, he will never be trusted. It's not far away from being another MK, because he can't let go of his ego to allow others to lead. And probably not even far away from an open revolt as people feel hard done by when Herman points his finger at who must go where, which doesn't help their personal growth either...
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Pity the IEC results page isn't very interactive to narrow down the results to local levels because I am convinced it would show the bigger losses came from Soweto and other majority black areas who were annoyed with his continued affiliation with the DA.

The Moonshot was where things unravelled for the party.
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
He was also screwed when Zuma fired him as minister. He then (supposedly) grew a conscience and spoke up during Zuma Must Fall, which Zuma would never have forgotten. The only thing that both of them have in common is some version of RET, beyond that they hate each other...
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To be honest Gauteng as a whole has never been keen on Zuma, including Mashatile himself, the reason that led to him not being retained is actually that he was against Zuma and led the campaign to have him replaced by Motlanthe in Mangaung, so it is also not accurate to say he only spoke out after being fired, considering he was still a Minister when he was campa8for Motlanthe.
 
ghaye said:
There will be some very happy bunnies on this forum when all traces of apartheid have been erased from South African soil. All roads, airport and buildings built by the new masters, the Chinese.
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The Chinese won't touch this place at all, or if they do, the locals will be shot on sight near any facility they build
 
cr@zydude said:

Someone with a subscription, please help us out.
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Four king N24 have stopped allowing text copying but quote two "highly placed sauces in the DA" saying that there is not much to the polling they do the polls on a daily basis, never used as accurate, more than just the data, just a snapshot, not much to be read into it, surprised it was leaked, isn't much in it you can say is definitive. Zille referred N24 to Ashor Sarupen but N24 "couldn't contact him".

The poll is of 1820 demographically representative registered voters, 4% margin of error, 100% voter turnout, 14 day moving average, for what that is worth.
 
Agent69 said:
It's going to get fun Brit.
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These results are not modelled for turnout and i doubt they are allocating undecideds. They need to be read with a very clear context. What's more important is how the same polls track over time.
 
TheChamp said:
I have a feeling they will still be bigger than Bosa, Rise and Good combined and there is a good chance they might overtake the Freedom Front.

Perhaps people seem to forget is a 5yo party, I think they are doing well and have achieved a lot in that short space of time, local elections are good for small parties so I don't think they will regress from where they are.
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Vibes and feelings being confused with analysis.... When the ANC implodes in 2026/7 this guy has a bright future as a South African political "analyst"
 
cr@zydude said:

Someone with a subscription, please help us out.
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  • Helen Zille, the DA’s federal council chairperson, is not impressed with the leaking of the party’s latest internal poll.
  • According to Zille, the margin of error is too great and the sample size too small.
  • Several sources have also questioned the timing of the leaks, emphasising that the municipal elections are still months away.
Helen Zille, the DA’s most powerful office bearer, has rubbished her own party’s latest internal poll that claims that the ANC’s national support has fallen below 30%.
Over the weekend, City Press reported that the ANC’s support at national level has now fallen to below 30% and that it has been overtaken by the DA in several metros ahead of next year’s municipal elections.
According to DA polling, if national elections were to be held today, the ANC would receive just 29% support from registered voters.
This is 11 percentage points lower than the 40% support the ANC received in the May 2024 general elections.

Moreover, the polling showed that the DA is now just one percentage point behind the ANC.

City Press also reported that the DA, currently led by John Steenhuisen, has 28% of the support, six percentage points more than it received in last year’s elections.
The DA polling placed support for former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party at 11%, the EFF’s at 8% and the IFP at 3%.

The polling data was leaked to the media, but not everyone in the DA is happy with the data making headlines.
Asked for comment on the matter, Zille, the party’s federal council chairperson, told News24: “It is ridiculous trying to draw conclusions on our tracking polls in metros at this stage.
“The sample size is too small and the margin of error too great. Please speak to Ashor (Sarupen). We do not leak our polling.”
Sarupen, also deputy minister of finance, is the DA’s elections campaign manager. Several efforts to contact him were unsuccessful.

City Press reported that the DA polling was conducted daily by telephone among 1 820 demographically representative respondents who are all registered voters.
The poll has a 4% margin of error and is modelled for a voter turnout of 100% and a 14-day moving average.
Two highly placed sources within the DA told News24 there was not much to the polling.
“There is nothing serious coming out of the data because we do this on a daily basis. We can’t read much into it, because polling data is a snapshot and can never be used as accurate because it depends on more than just data. While the data is fairly correct, there is not much that we can read into at this,” the source said.
Another source questioned the timing of the leak.
“It is strange that this has been leaked because, one, we do this almost every day, and two, we are several months away from the local government elections. For now, there isn’t really much in it that you can say this is definitive or not,” the source said.
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But it sure is fun to see the hysteria and anger by cadres and RETs because of the polls...
According to the poll:
  • In Tshwane, the ANC polls at 27% (-8), while the DA is at a solid 48% (+16). The FF Plus stands at 9% (+1) and the EFF at 7% (-3). ActionSA, which holds the mayoral seat in a coalition with the ANC and the EFF, stands at 2% (-7). Earlier this month, the DA announced Cilliers Brink, the former mayor, as its mayoral candidate. The possibility of a DA coalition with the FF Plus looks like a reality if the DA’s polling is anything to go by.
  • In the Ekurhuleni metro, the ANC is at 19% (-19), the DA at 41% (+13), the EFF at 12% (-1) and the MKP at 11%.
  • In Cape Town, the DA stands strong with 61% (+8) of the support. The City is considered the crown jewel for the DA with a solid support base. The ANC has 19% (-3) support, but Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance is making inroads with 9% of the vote in Cape Town. Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is widely expected to run again.
  • In Johannesburg, the ANC polls at 23%, 10 percentage points lower than what the party received in the 2021 municipal elections. In contrast, the DA is polling at 40% (+14 percentage points since 2021). ActionSA is at 12% (-6) and the MKP, the political newcomer, is at 7%.
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Inertia said:
These results are not modelled for turnout and i doubt they are allocating undecideds. They need to be read with a very clear context. What's more important is how the same polls track over time.
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Sure, sure. But at the very least, it continues the pattern of the absolute destruction of ANC since 2021...
 
Agent69 said:
Sure, sure. But at the very least, it continues the pattern of the absolute destruction of ANC since 2021...
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There is zero good story for the ANC and a great narrative for the DA. But it shouldn't be interpreted as the results of an election if it were held today. What the DA will be tracking is how the polls move over time.
 
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