SA Politics Thread Part 12

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Vox Populi Vox Dei said:
He's using the 2021 municipal results where the PA hardly troubled the vote counters. The more accurate base to use is the 2024 provincial ballot results by ward, which I used as the main figure in my table. Nevertheless, even using the 2024 provincial ballot numbers, the PA made gains in both wards, particularly the one they won with 60% of the vote.
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What's your take on PA now? I think that you previously said that they were strong in rural WC areas, but not urban areas? Do the George results change that thinking?
 
Blu82 said:
Checks notes. He seems to be providing updates on electricity issues in the area while the DA is busy celebrating their win.
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It seems he was on site assisting for a snapped electricity cable today as well.
 
cr@zydude said:
What's your take on PA now? I think that you previously said that they were strong in rural WC areas, but not urban areas? Do the George results change that thinking?
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I'd have to look specifically at the wards themselves because although George is mostly urban, there are some more, smaller rural areas outside of the town centre.
 
ghaye said:
We clearly think differently on the matter. I think it's a very poor reflection on the voters. After years of "One man, one vote" as the reason for bombs, murder, arson and general mayhem I would have thought the masses would value their vote somewhat more. Maybe it was about something else and not the vote?
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A 55% turnout on a normal workday is high, stop confusing yourself.
 
I have to love the Twitter polytical analysts getting the reasoning of ward 57's result completely wrong.
 
cr@zydude said:
I look forward to the update.
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Wayne Sussman describes Ward 17 as the following:

The setting: Conville and Rosemoor are east of the town centre. The suburbs are below the N12 national road and above the N2 national road.
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And Ward 27 as the following:

The setting: Pacaltsdorp is south of the George town centre. It sits below the N2 national road. Pacaltsdorp produced the rugby player Davon Raubenheimer who was part of the 2005 Under 21 Rugby World Cup-winning team.
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So both key to note here is they are outside of the town centre (where most of the George voters live). And I checked the absolute number of votes in each ward who voted and it was just above 2000 votes, which isn't that big, but larger than pure rural wards where the victor only needs a vote number in the 100s to win. So let's call these areas "peri-urban"
 
Vox Populi Vox Dei said:
Wayne Sussman describes Ward 17 as the following:



And Ward 27 as the following:



So both key to note here is they are outside of the town centre (where most of the George voters live). And I checked the absolute number of votes in each ward who voted and it was just above 2000 votes, which isn't that big, but larger than pure rural wards where the victor only needs a vote number in the 100s to win. So let's call these areas "peri-urban"
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Thanks for the updates. Which parts of Cape Town and Stellenbosh / Winelands Municipalities would fall into the same categories? I'm trying to see if the notion of the PA still attracting rural voters holds.
 
Blu82 said:
I have to love the Twitter polytical analysts getting the reasoning of ward 57's result completely wrong.
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What is their reasoning, and what is your reasoning? But yeah, people who are actually in the area for the by-election (like yourself) have a much better understanding of the dynamics involved. Unfortunately, for people not living there, the media doesn't cover it well as they basically never visit such places and only look at the results, so it's really difficult to understand the underlying dynamics.
 
cr@zydude said:
Thanks for the updates. Which parts of Cape Town and Stellenbosh / Winelands Municipalities would fall into the same categories? I'm trying to see if the notion of the PA still attracting rural voters holds.
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I would consider all CT wards as urban. I would need to look at the Stellenbosch map properly because there is obviously the town centre / university wards which would be urban, but you quickly get to the wine farms outside of the town centre. But Stellenbosch has grown so much now, I would hesitate to call any ward there as rural as one of the characteristics of rural wards are the very low number of voters.
 
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