The Brexit Thread

[C4Cat]

A good agreement would have been like remaining friends and sharing custody of the kids.

Which is what May's deal would have done. Yes the UK might need to bite the bullet and make some compromises but they initiated a divorce the EU didn't want. Accepting the negotiated deal would have meant remaining friends and would have given clarity on the way forward.

 

[rietrot]

The EU came to an agreement like that but nobody liked it. Now Boris wants a new agreement but doesn't want to tell the EU what he wants.

It's like, the wife says well about we agree to live together until we've sorted things out and separated properly. Husband is like, no that doesn't work, I won't negotiate at all if that's what you want. Wife is like fine, just come up with an alternative. Husband sits there with mond vol tande and blames the wife.

The EU came to a agreement that heavily favoured them, because May was a incompetent negotiator.

Borris is doing a great job. He can't negotiate from a position of desperation and weakness now. He is fixing that. At least the UK doesn't appear weak an desperate any more, like as if they'll accept any nonsense just to avoid a no deal.

And just staying together isn't a solution.

 

[ToxicBunny]

The EU came to a agreement that heavily favoured them, because May was a incompetent negotiator.

Borris is doing a great job. He can't negotiate from a position of desperation and weakness now. He is fixing that. At least the UK doesn't appear weak an desperate any more, like as if they'll accept any nonsense just to avoid a no deal.

And just staying together isn't a solution.

The UK doesn't appear weak and desperate?

Forgive me, but the UK appears fscking clueless.... Putting Boris in charge is the sign of a group of people who have no fscking idea what they are doing...

 

[Ancalagon]

The EU came to a agreement that heavily favoured them, because May was a incompetent negotiator.

Borris is doing a great job. He can't negotiate from a position of desperation and weakness now. He is fixing that. At least the UK doesn't appear weak an desperate any more, like as if they'll accept any nonsense just to avoid a no deal.

And just staying together isn't a solution.

Boris isn't negotiating though. He is planning to leave with no deal. That isn't doing a great job and it's not negotiating.

It will be far harder to negotiate a deal after the UK has crashed out of the EU. We will be trading on WTO rules, and so the UK will be pressured to sign a deal QUICKLY. The EU means more to the UK than the UK means to the EU.

The UK is just one country in the EU. The EU still has the EU, still trades all over the world. After Brexit, the UK will have no trading agreements with any country in the world. Not the EU and not the USA. There will be MASSIVE pressure to reach trade deals quickly, which is not a good position to negotiate from.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Boris isn't negotiating though. He is planning to leave with no deal. That isn't doing a great job and it's not negotiating.

That is the best job and it is definitely a ploy for the negotiating table. For the UK to have the maximum leverage possible they absolutely most be prepared for "no deal" and the EU must believe they are ready, willing and able to execute a no deal scenario. Only then will the UK get some concessions.

That's the polar opposite of holding a vote to pretend to outlaw "no deal" and not prepare for it at all until D-Day arrives. That was not doing a great job, that was Theresa May.

 

[Ancalagon]

That is the best job and it is definitely a ploy for the negotiating table. For the UK to have the maximum leverage possible they absolutely most be prepared for "no deal" and the EU must believe they are ready, willing and able to execute a no deal scenario. Only then will the UK get some concessions.

That's the polar opposite of holding a vote to pretend to outlaw "no deal" and not prepare for it at all until D-Day arrives. That was not doing a great job, that was Theresa May.

Even if the EU suddenly decides to "capitulate" (which they won't), there isn't enough time to reach a new agreement before Brexit.

Brexiteers are living in this fantasy land where the UK can make demands of the EU and it will accede. It won't happen. The EU will always put unity above caving into the UK. If that is really what BJ wants (which I doubt), then the UK is in for a rude surprise at Halloween.

Also I don't think BJ actually wants to negotiate at all. He wants no deal. He will benefit from it financially even as the UK goes into recession. Him and all of his rich friends.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Even if the EU suddenly decides to "capitulate" (which they won't), there isn't enough time to reach a new agreement before Brexit.

Brexiteers are living in this fantasy land where the UK can make demands of the EU and it will accede. It won't happen. The EU will always put unity above caving into the UK. If that is really what BJ wants (which I doubt), then the UK is in for a rude surprise at Halloween.

Also I don't think BJ actually wants to negotiate at all. He wants no deal. He will benefit from it financially even as the UK goes into recession. Him and all of his rich friends.

Yeah, at the end of the day Boris isn't in it for the country... he will be making himself richer out of this process....

 

[buka001]

Ultimately regardless of the outcome (no deal, or deal, or reverse brexit or whatever) what the UK needs more than anything else right now is certainty about the future.....

Much like SA really.

This! Totally this.

 

[buka001]

The EU came to a agreement that heavily favoured them, because May was a incompetent negotiator.

Borris is doing a great job. He can't negotiate from a position of desperation and weakness now. He is fixing that. At least the UK doesn't appear weak an desperate any more, like as if they'll accept any nonsense just to avoid a no deal.

And just staying together isn't a solution.

What has Boris done that is substantial enough, since becoming PM that can be judged as him doing a good job?

Alot of Game Theory, but not sure if that intentional or not?

 

[buka001]

The UK doesn't appear weak and desperate?

Forgive me, but the UK appears fscking clueless.... Putting Boris in charge is the sign of a group of people who have no fscking idea what they are doing...

Exactly.

Pre-Brexit, the leavers waxed lyrically about how the UK would hold all the cards and be the dominant negotiator.

Stockpiling medicine and essential goods, doesn't sound like they hold many cards at all.

Are any EU nations stockpiling medicine for post Brexit?

 

[buka001]

That is the best job and it is definitely a ploy for the negotiating table. For the UK to have the maximum leverage possible they absolutely most be prepared for "no deal" and the EU must believe they are ready, willing and able to execute a no deal scenario. Only then will the UK get some concessions.

That's the polar opposite of holding a vote to pretend to outlaw "no deal" and not prepare for it at all until D-Day arrives. That was not doing a great job, that was Theresa May.

Game Theory.

Just not sure if Boris understands it fully enough to make it his intentional ploy.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Even if the EU suddenly decides to "capitulate" (which they won't), there isn't enough time to reach a new agreement before Brexit.

There's plenty of time if the existing deal serves as the starting point minus a couple of significant concessions.

I don't think BJ actually wants to negotiate at all. He wants no deal.

BJ is a fair weather politician, he sways whichever way the wind blows, I don't believe he wants brexit AT ALL, but he wants power and perceives an aggressive pro-brexit stance as the thing that will give him power the easiest.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Game Theory.

Just not sure if Boris understands it fully enough to make it his intentional ploy.

Doubt Boris even begins to understand it, but hopefully the people who has his ear do ...

Is there enough time left to swear in Varoufakis as a British MP and put him in charge?
That guy is well versed in these shenanigans.

 

[Ancalagon]

There's plenty of time if the existing deal serves as the starting point minus a couple of significant concessions.


BJ is a fair weather politician, he sways whichever way the wind blows, I don't believe he wants brexit AT ALL, but he wants power and perceives an aggressive pro-brexit stance as the thing that will give him power the easiest.

The existing deal is the backstop. That's the whole thing. Without that, what do you have?

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

The existing deal is the backstop. That's the whole thing. Without that, what do you have?

The existing deal is free movement, trade, it is a shyte ton more than just "the backstop". It currently has the condition of the backstop, that might change ...

 

[Ancalagon]

The existing deal is free movement, trade, it is a shyte ton more than just "the backstop". It currently has the condition of the backstop, that might change ...

No, you don't understand.

The whole deal they are negotiating now is TEMPORARY. Always has been. The deal that is on the table is the deal that sets out the relationship between the UK and the EU after the UK has left the EU but before a permanent agreement has been signed.

This is the entire reason the backstop was supposed to be temporary in the first place. The backstop is there because a temporary customs union is required to prevent a hard border. The temporary customs union is what allows for the free movement of goods.

And, Brexiteers like you usually hate the idea of free movement and free trade. Free movement requires accepting immigration from the EU which you people don't want. You don't want the Polish being free to move to the UK - that's what free movement is.

You also don't want free trade, because that requires a customs union, and that means the UK is unable to strike its own deals with other countries.

And if you have freedom of movement and freedom of trade, that means the UK is a taker of rules and not a maker of rules, since it will no longer have any say in the government of the EU. In other words, a worse position than we are now. You get Brexit, but you have no power to influence anything. You have no choice but to accept Polish immigrants (as an example) and you can't strike your own trade deals, and you are still subject to a lot of EU law (but not all of it). You can't influence policy directly.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You also don't want free trade, because that requires a customs union

At the risk of sounding rude ... are you high?!?

In WHAT fresh hell does free trade require a customs union? The EU made it so by choice, there is no reason whatsoever that the one requires the other.

Here, have a look at how many countries managed to figure it out without a completely unnecessary customs union:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements

 

[Ancalagon]

At the risk of sounding rude ... are you high?!?

In WHAT fresh hell does free trade require a customs union? The EU made it so by choice, there is no reason whatsoever that the one requires the other.

Here, have a look at how many countries managed to figure it out without a completely unnecessary customs union:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements

In order for there to be frictionless movement of goods across the border, the two countries have to agree on EVERYTHING.

They have to agree what is an apple and what is a pear, how to classify them, colours etc, and most importantly tariffs. As soon as the EU changes the tariff for apples, the UK would need to make the same change. If they don't, you can end up with a situation where it is cheaper to import goods into the EU via the UK in order to avoid tariffs.

You can see why that would be a problem - the EU would never allow anyone to get away with avoiding paying tariffs. Neither would they want to encourage people to ship goods into the EU via the UK so that the UK gets the tariffs and the EU gets nothing.

So they need essentially identical trading conditions - a customs union.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

In order for there to be frictionless movement of goods across the border, the two countries have to agree on EVERYTHING.

They have to agree what is an apple and what is a pear, how to classify them, colours etc, and most importantly tariffs.

Bollocks, you didn't research the many other free trade agreements at all did you? Countless examples of countries not overcomplicating things, and certainly not having a customs union.

In the extreme both countries could simply agree free trade on everything, when it is "everything" there is no need for any classification whatsoever. There's a massive range of options between that and "customs union".

Customs union would be the dumbest idea there's ever been if free trade is the only goal.

 

[noxibox]

After Brexit, the UK will have no trading agreements with any country in the world. Not the EU and not the USA. There will be MASSIVE pressure to reach trade deals quickly, which is not a good position to negotiate from.

And it looks like they won't get one with the US if they destabilise Ireland.

And if you have freedom of movement and freedom of trade, that means the UK is a taker of rules and not a maker of rules, since it will no longer have any say in the government of the EU. In other words, a worse position than we are now. You get Brexit, but you have no power to influence anything. You have no choice but to accept Polish immigrants (as an example) and you can't strike your own trade deals, and you are still subject to a lot of EU law (but not all of it). You can't influence policy directly.

The leave side already believes, or at least claims to believe, that the EU is run by bureaucrats over whom the UK has no power or influence, so to them the described situation is the same as being in the EU. It's nonsense of course.