The Brexit Thread

[OrbitalDawn]

The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

The government's new analysis of the impact of Brexit says the UK would be worse off outside the European Union under every scenario modelled, BuzzFeed News can reveal.

The assessment, which is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, looked at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios based on existing EU arrangements.

Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5% lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts, according to the analysis.

The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The softest Brexit option of continued single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2%.

These calculations do not take into account any short-term hits to the economy from Brexit, such as the cost of adjusting the economy to new customs arrangements.

The assessment seen by BuzzFeed News is being kept tightly guarded inside government. It was prepared by officials across Whitehall for the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) and is reportedly being presented to key ministers in one-to-one meetings this week ahead of discussion at the Brexit cabinet subcommittee next week.

Asked why the prime minister was not making the analysis public, a DExEU source told BuzzFeed News: "Because it's embarrassing."

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

buzzfeed :crylaugh:

and the pro-EU government of the UK made a case for not leaving? Shocking ...

 

[The_Assimilator]

buzzfeed :crylaugh:

and the pro-EU government of the UK made a case for not leaving? Shocking ...

Since when are the Tories pro-EU?

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Since when are the Tories pro-EU?

Since forever, were you not around all the years that Cameron blocked the referendum from even happening?

Perhaps pro-status quo is a better phrase, the outcome is the same, the vast majority of both Torries and Labour don't support brexit. They're merely executing a mandate given to them by their citizens, begrudgingly so.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

The Government's Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU

This from the same civil service which predicted massive job losses and negative economic growth within two years after the vote? :crylaugh: :crylaugh:

Economists can hardly predict what will happen next year, nevermind in 15 years. Continue believing voodoo economics if it helps you sleep at night :crylaugh:.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Since when are the Tories pro-EU?

You clearly haven't been paying much attention if you have to ask that question. The Cameron government was largely pro EU as is Theresa May. The cabinet is heavily geared towards remaining.

Of course it is an extremely dangerous game for May to be playing as the actual grassroots are far more pro-leave than their representatives.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Also, the EU must be a mad to be offering the following during the so-called transition period....

Theresa May will reject the EU’s proposed deal on the Brexit transition period and go into battle next week over freedom of movement and so-called “rule taking”.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said Britain must accept “all decisions” of the European Union during transition if it wanted a deal, but would have no say over any new laws that are brought in.

Brussels’ official negotiating stance, published on Monday, also states that freedom of movement must continue until the end of the transition period, which the EU wants to end on December 31, 2020.

Eurosceptics insist that would turn Britain into a “vassal state” of the EU during transition, and the Government’s negotiators will be told to reject both ideas when they begin talks on Feb 5.

It comes as Mrs May faces a Commons rebellion from up to 60 Eurosceptic Tory MPs over plans to pass a law allowing Britain to join a customs union after Brexit.

...

EU transition deal | What Brussels is offering

Britain to be offered a “status quo transition without institutional representation”

Transition period to end on December 31, 2020, shorter than the Government’s preferred option of “around two years”

Freedom of movement for EU citizens to continue throughout the transition period - a rejection of the Government’s registration scheme for new migrants

All new rules and regulations brought in by the EU during transition must adopted by Britain without the UK being able to block them.

Britain will be able to air its views in EU meetings where its interests are at stake, such as EU fishing quotas, but access will be granted on a “limited, exceptional and case by case basis”

Britain can discuss trade deals with other countries during transition

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ct-eu-transition-offer-fight-citizens-rights/

 

[f2wohf]

This from the same civil service which predicted massive job losses and negative economic growth within two years after the vote? :crylaugh: :crylaugh:

Economists can hardly predict what will happen next year, nevermind in 15 years. Continue believing voodoo economics if it helps you sleep at night :crylaugh:.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/15/uk-employment-falls-brexit-vote-ons-unemployed
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-boom-is-petering-out-claims-employers-survey
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...forecast-pwc-brexit-city-london-a8155296.html

Maybe it’s the start?

The GDP is actually going the opposite way to the EU’s GDP. France posted its strongest growth since 2011.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

France posted its strongest growth since 2011.

They can thank Mario Draghi's money printing scam for that, that house of cards will come down eventually ...

 

[OrbitalDawn]

This from the same civil service which predicted massive job losses and negative economic growth within two years after the vote?

Source?

 

[f2wohf]

They can thank Mario Draghi's money printing scam for that, that house of cards will come down eventually ...

Funny, because the growth increases when the QE is being curbed.

The UK never did any QE either...

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/c...ve-easing-printing-programme-stock-market/amp

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwor...ly-not-complacent-about-qe-or-interest-rates/

In fact, the BOE and FED balance sheets increased more (5 times) than the ECB’s (2 times).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-banks-ponder-what-to-do-with-all-their-assets-1493085960

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Source?

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf (p.8).

GDP: -3.6% (WRONG)
Unemployment: +520 000 (WRONG)
Average real wages: -2.8% (WRONG)
House prices: -10% (WRONG)

etc. etc.

 

[f2wohf]

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf (p.8).

GDP: -3.6% (WRONG)
Unemployment: +520 000 (WRONG)
Average real wages: -2.8% (WRONG)
House prices: -10% (WRONG)

etc. etc.

Are we two years after? No.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Are we two years after? No.

Lol. Ok, I can wait 5 months, if you wish. Promise you nothing dramatic will happen between now and the end of June . The UK is not SA...

All international organisations like IMF, OECD are already forecasting GDP growth for the UK in 2018. They'll probably be wrong about the exact amount of growth, of course, but not one is expectly negative growth.

 

[f2wohf]

Lol. Ok, I can wait 5 months, if you wish. Promise you nothing dramatic will happen between now and the end of June . The UK is not SA...

All international organisations like IMF, OECD are already forecasting GDP growth for the UK in 2018. They'll probably be wrong about the exact amount of growth, but not one is expectly negative growth.

I don’t believe the negative growth and very high unemployment.

But I do believe the UK will enjoy a lower growth than its peers and the unemployment won’t lower, but steadily increase (except if the government puts employment incentives).

The trade balance will be interesting to watch as well.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Funny, because the growth increases when the QE is being curbed

It takes time for the fake money to work its way through the system, unless you do an America and just purchase stocks directly on your own stock market ...

While the ECB talks of curbing QE either slowly or quickly, the money expansion will still remain until they actually normalize their balance sheet, something no central bank has done yet after their respective bouts of insanity with QE. Only then will the effects of curbing be felt.

 

[f2wohf]

So QE has no impact on UK (terrible recent growth) but suddenly has an impact out of nowhere on France? Makes sense.

Don’t you rather think that the underlying economy of Europe has recovered, and that the British economy is suffering from Brexit?

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

So QE has no impact on UK (terrible recent growth) but suddenly has an impact out of nowhere on France? Makes sense

Negative sentiment w.r.t. brexit is hurting the UK, AFAIK they also chose not to ramp up QE to combat that, but rather leave things as they are (a wise choice in the long run that comes with short term pain).

Don’t you rather think that the underlying economy of Europe has recovered

No, not in the slightest, you might as well believe the US or Japanese economies have recovered, also false.

and that the British economy is suffering from Brexit?

The negative sentiment around brexit yes. The figures are useless at this stage: brexit hasn't actually happened yet and noone knows what that even looks like, until that changes there's no point in comparing UK figures with others really.

 

[f2wohf]

Negative sentiment w.r.t. brexit is hurting the UK, AFAIK they also chose not to ramp up QE to combat that, but rather leave things as they are (a wise choice in the long run that comes with short term pain).


No, not in the slightest, you might as well believe the US or Japanese economies have recovered, also false.


The negative sentiment around brexit yes. The figures are useless at this stage: brexit hasn't actually happened yet and noone knows what that even looks like, until that changes there's no point in comparing UK figures with others really.

You might be right, or not.

Nobody knows what percentage of the economical growth is due to QE at this stage and how solid is the recovery behind.

I agree on UK being impacted by Brexit negative sentiment, certainly lower investments or even a small amount of disinvestments.

Only future will tell.

 

[Dave]

Another possible spanner in the works for the May, Davis, Johnson circus.

Gibraltar can veto parts of Brexit deal it doesn't like, chief minister says

Joe Wallen GibraltarMonday 29 January 2018 15:15 GMT

Exclusive: Fabian Picardo tells The Independent a clause in Gibraltar's constitution gives it the right to choose its own terms for matters such as trade tariffs and regulations, whatever Ms May agrees with Brussels, in a move that could embolden other regions calling for bespoke deals

The chief minister of Gibraltar has said he is ready to veto parts of the Brexit deal agreed by Theresa May if it does not work in the territory’s favour.

Speaking exclusively to The Independent, Fabian Picardo said he would not accept anything in the deal that was detrimental to Gibraltar’s business or social care systems.

Section 47(3) of the constitution gives its leadership autonomy in a range of policy areas, including those relating to business and social care, which could see it set different tariffs and regulations for its important financial services sector, for example.

Full article at:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ardo-spain-border-a8183946.html?S2ref=1623651