The End.

BBSA said:
@StrongTurd - Why do you not just buy lots of Sasol shares..... when you do not have to worry day and night about the pending "End"?
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I'm not following your logic. The demand for oil has taken a huge nosedive to such an extent that the oil majors are now asking for tax breaks despite the fact that they were earning world record profits less than a year ago. Unless a miracle happens and demand recovers, then why would Sasol shares be such a good investment? Their share price has pretty much collapsed at the end of last year, just like that of most energy companies.

Sasol 2 year share price
 
StrongTurd said:
I'm not following your logic. The demand for oil has taken a huge nosedive to such an extent that the oil majors are now asking for tax breaks despite the fact that they were earning world record profits less than a year ago. Unless a miracle happens and demand recovers, then why would Sasol shares be such a good investment? Their share price has pretty much collapsed at the end of last year, just like that of most energy companies.

Sasol 2 year share price
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Buy then there is blood on the street.

Are you not the one who is preaching the end because we are going to run out of oil? Just imagine what a killing Sasol is going to make.
 
BBSA said:
Buy then there is blood on the street.

Are you not the one who is preaching the end because we are going to run out of oil? Just imagine what a killing Sasol is going to make.
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Sorry, but I'm really battling to follow your argument.

As I've explained earlier in this thread, I believe that although peak oil was the indirect cause of the current global economic collapse, I don't foresee that it will in the near to medium term future be a significant factor in the shaping of the world's economy due to the collapse of demand.

I'm quoting from my earlier post:

It could even be argued that peak oil will never again actually become an issue due to the world economy's inability to tolerate $150 oil. Every time demand recovers somewhat, prices will shoot up again causing another economic collapse. It has been proven very vividly that the world economy ceases to function at those kind of prices. The actual peak in world oil production will then never become the driving force in shaping our destiny because demand will never be allowed to recover sufficiently to really start taxing supplies. Either way, we're screwed.
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So, yes, it does appear that worldwide conventional crude oil production has already peaked but the ensuing economic slowdown was of such a massive scale that I don't think that demand will again reach 87 mbpd.
 
BBSA said:
:confused: It is not a difficult concept.

Any case, what are you doing to prepare for the "End"?
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Yeah, that concept might be easy enough to understand but it only makes sense if one believes that demand will fully recover, doesn't it?

Let's just say that I am actively preparing for the worst. I'm not feeling comfortable to divulge much details as to the specifics of what I'm doing apart from saying that they're all legal and all very logical if you think about it.

What do we all need to stay alive? We can surely do without the internet, computers, iPods, mobile phones, cars, even electricity. What one should provide for is food, water, shelter, clothing, medical supplies and self defense. The rest are details. I would also suggest to anyone that is serious about preparing for a possibly chaotic future to start by getting a good bug-out bag ready for each member of your family.
 
BBSA said:
So we are out of the wood then?
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No, not in the least. See my quote at post #172 above. I'll try to rephrase:

The effect of peak oil on the world's economy was so devastating that it appears unlikely that demand will ever (at least not within decades) recover sufficiently for supply ever to be seriously taxed again. But the lingering effects the ensuing worldwide financial meltdown will give us more than enough to worry as it is. In fact, massive starvation, especially in Africa, is a distinct possibility.

You see, if demand was to recover, supplies will again be unable to cope, especially now with the dearth of development in new oil fields due to the price collapse. Another massive price spike will ensue, again destroying demand. This is classic peak oil theory.
 
StrongTurd said:
No, not in the least. See my quote at post #172 above. I'll try to rephrase:

The effect of peak oil on the world's economy was so devastating that it appears unlikely that demand will ever (at least not within decades) recover sufficiently for supply ever to be seriously taxed again. But the lingering effects the ensuing worldwide financial meltdown will give us more than enough to worry as it is. In fact, massive starvation, especially in Africa, is a distinct possibility.

You see, if demand was to recover, supplies will again be unable to cope, especially now with the dearth of development in new oil fields due to the price collapse. Another massive price spike will ensue, again destroying demand. This is classic peak oil theory.
Click to expand...

Do you not think we will find alternatives to oil?
 
BBSA said:
Do you not think we will find alternatives to oil?
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Sure, there are many alternatives to conventional crude oil. But there's a catch: None of them are remotely price competitive with it. As you will have noticed, there's not a single alternative energy source that is currently viable. They were indeed very profitable when oil was > $100 per barrel but with oil at < $40 they are in deep trouble indeed.

The "problem" with light sweet crude oil is that it is such an amazingly cheap, abundant and calory-dense form of energy that nothing has been identified that can offer the same characteristics AT EVEN REMOTELY THE SAME PRICE. And herein lies the rub: Out entire civilisation is built on the premise of cheap oil. To think that we can transition to far more expensive energy sources without having to reboot the entire system is, in my humble opinion, delusional.
 
StrongTurd said:
Sure, there are many alternatives to conventional crude oil. But there's a catch: None of them are remotely price competitive with it.
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Yes ATM, as with any new technology, but they will get cheaper with time. Things is not as bad as you might think. Humans have the ability to innovate when the need is the greatest.
 
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@Turd

Peak oil? Please. You mean you believe the oil companies, who say oil is getting even more scarce? That's laughable. This isn't the era of peak oil, this is the era of consumer stupidity and gullibility. A time where the end user laps up most of the **** spewed by big organisations and "scyantific evidance". The oil companies would love you to believe in peak oil, just so that they can charge $ 150 a barrel. Especially after it's been proven to be a pack of lies, with oil nestling comfortably at $ 40 a barrel. Just in the past year they discovered more oil and natural gas pockets than in the US and Arabian reserves, put together! That's peak oil for you, precious substance trickling away. Really.
 
Aeron said:
@Turd

Peak oil? Please. You mean you believe the oil companies, who say oil is getting even more scarce? That's laughable. This isn't the era of peak oil, this is the era of consumer stupidity and gullibility. A time where the end user laps up most of the **** spewed by big organisations and "scyantific evidance". The oil companies would love you to believe in peak oil, just so that they can charge $ 150 a barrel. Especially after it's been proven to be a pack of lies, with oil nestling comfortably at $ 40 a barrel. Just in the past year they discovered more oil and natural gas pockets than in the US and Arabian reserves, put together! That's peak oil for you, precious substance trickling away. Really.
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* YAWN *
 
YA,SHOCKING STATEMENT INDEED.LOOCK I WON'T TRY AND MAKE ANY EXCEPTIONS,BUT THE REALITY IS:STRENTH OF MAN ARE NOT TESTERED DURING TIMES OF SUCCESS.WENEED TO GET CLARITY INTHAT MARKETS WILL OVER TIME DO THIS SUCH THINGS,THAT IS THE NATURE OF ECONOMICS,SORRY TO THOSE WHO WILL SUFER ITS JUST THE WAY MARKETS FUNCTION. THE PIRIOD FOR RECOVERY WILL COME SOON .
 
UK Car Industry in Meltdown

...and so the bad news continues to roll in. It seems like Vauxhall is going down:

Britain's car industry was in meltdown today as new figures showed production has halved in 12 months and amid warnings a UK plant employing 100,000 may collapse.

Just 61,404 cars were manufactured last month, 58.7 per cent down on January 2008. Construction of commercial vehicles slumped by an even larger 59.9 per cent.

Almost all the cars made over the month - 83.5 per cent - were allocated for export as UK demand tails off, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

They released the dismal data as union leaders warned Alistair Darling 100,000 jobs at a car plant are under threat because it is in danger of 'imminent' closure.

And there was yet more woe as Saab, which has 80 dealerships in the UK, announced it was filing for protection against creditors in a bid to save its business.
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The loss of a 100 000 direct jobs in the car industry will have a devastating ripple effect on many other sectors of the UK economy. The only way that a complete collapse of the entire world economy can be averted is if someone figures out a way to get the banks to start lending money again. But then again most European banks are probably sh**ting themselves waiting for Eastern European countries to start defaulting en masse on their loans to EU banks. I can't see them starting to start providing credit again with such a sword hanging over their heads.

I'll wager that the UK government will have no choice but to bail out these bankrupt car companies in order to avert (even if temporarily), disaster.

Link.
 
StrongTurd said:
...and so the bad news continues to roll in. It seems like Vauxhall is going down:



The loss of a 100 000 direct jobs in the car industry will have a devastating ripple effect on many other sectors of the UK economy. The only way that a complete collapse of the entire world economy can be averted is if someone figures out a way to get the banks to start lending money again. But then again most European banks are probably sh**ting themselves waiting for Eastern European countries to start defaulting en masse on their loans to EU banks. I can't see them starting to start providing credit again with such a sword hanging over their heads.

I'll wager that the UK government will have no choice but to bail out these bankrupt car companies in order to avert (even if temporarily), disaster.

Link.
Click to expand...

* YAWN *
 
Lord Anubis said:
Won't be long before our auto industry halts..then its the petrol producers who will kuk e.g. sasol, engen etc
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Yup, I'm afraid so.

I personally feel that the time bomb ticking away in Eastern Europe, the Balkans and Russia is the single most fearful threat amongst a plethora of others that we're facing. The default of a single bank in any of these countries on a loan due to a large EU bank might cause a run on the EU bank. This in turn might cause a sudden chain reaction among other banks similarly engaged. That, folks, would be the end. No central bank bailout would be able to respond quickly enough to such an event.
 
@BBSA: I'm sorry but I don't buy into conspiracy theories. Never have. Never will. The odds of keeping any large international event under wraps and instead selling a concocted version to the masses are ridiculous. There are simply too many people involved. You cannot buy everybody. As such, I don't dignify conspiracy theories with a response. A yawn does very nicely instead.
 
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