The End.

[BBSA]

@BBSA: I'm sorry but I don't buy into conspiracy theories. Never have. Never will. The odds of keeping any large international event under wraps and instead selling a concocted version to the masses are ridiculous. There are simply too many people involved. You cannot buy everybody. As such, I don't dignify conspiracy theories with a response. A yawn does very nicely instead.

Well even the the president of Royal Dutch Shell's and others agree with him. Here is some info from Wiki:

The president of Royal Dutch Shell's US operations John Hofmeister, while agreeing that conventional oil production will soon start to decline, has criticized Simmons's analysis for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer." He also points to the large reserves at the "US Outer Continental Shelf, which holds an estimated 100 billion barrels (16×10^9 m3) of oil and natural gas. As things stand, however, only 15 percent of those reserves are currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. Hofmeister also contends that Simmons erred in excluding unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell is already active. The Canadian oil sands — a natural combination of sand, water and oil found largely in Alberta — is believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, but are in the form of oil shale. These particular reserves present major environmental, social, and economic obstacles to recovery. Hofmeister also claims that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another 2 million barrels per day (320×10^3 m3/d), oil and gas prices would not be as high as they are in the later part of the 2000 to 2010 decade.

 

[StrongTurd]

Gone in 60 Days: Citi and Bank of America Won’t Live to See May

Man! Look at the stock prices on this link:

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/gone-in-60-days-citi-and-bank-of-america-wont-live-to-see-may/

We’re going to make another bold prediction. Bank of America and Citigroup won’t live to see May. The two banks will be nationalized in the coming weeks, and we think that the announcement can come as soon as tomorrow evening (Friday evenings are when major bank announcements and failures occur).

The US government has already committed half a trillion dollars to these two firms which is more than 10 times the amount it would cost to buy and control both companies. The market doesn’t believe that $500 billion is enough to save these companies. All the kings horses and all the kings men can’t put humpty dumpty back together again.

Today both banks made fresh new lows with Citi closing at $2.51 and Bank of America closing at $3.93. The 1 year charts below show the short term price movements. You should understand that when a bank stock’s chart looks like this, even a HEALTHY bank would be in trouble. Nobody wants their deposits tied up in a company that trades at $2. The outflows of deposits from Bank of America and Citi must be catastrophic.

Talk about unsustainable!

 

[ToxicBunny]

Ok, can we come back in May if both of these banks are still in existance and laugh at these predictions as being conspiracy theories and doom mongering?

 

[StrongTurd]

Ok, can we come back in May if both of these banks are still in existance and laugh at these predictions as being conspiracy theories and doom mongering?

I sure as hell hope so, yes. It should be quite clear that I do not WANT the Western economy to fail. On the contrary. Nothing would make me happier than to be proven wrong. Unfortunately the figures that I've quoted just in this thread alone paint a picture of unprecedented doom heading our way like a freight train without brakes.

I wish I could share your optimism but one has to be almost blind not to see the outcome of a continuation of this graph:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=C#chart4:symbol=c;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

...or this one:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BAC#chart1:symbol=bac;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

 

[BBSA]

I sure as hell hope so, yes. It should be quite clear that I do not WANT the Western economy to fail. On the contrary. Nothing would make me happier than to be proven wrong. Unfortunately the figures that I've quoted just in this thread alone paint a picture of unprecedented doom heading our way like a freight train without brakes.

I wish I could share your optimism but one has to be almost blind not to see the outcome of a continuation of this graph:

Have you ever heard of a self fulfilling prophecy:

A self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning

 

[StrongTurd]

Have you ever heard of a self fulfilling prophecy:

Yes, of course I have. I fail to see its relevance in this case, though. How can my "prophecy of doom" have even the most insignificant of an effect on worldwide economic events considering the fact that I have no investments on any stock market, I employ no positions of power in society and I live in a backward little African country.

I do however regard my grasp of reality to be better than average and as such I consider my "prophecy of doom" to be an entirely reasonable deduction based on the facts presented to me. In fact, I would go as far as to say that a failure to comprehend the gravity of the current economic situation facing the world points to either a state of denial or even of downright delusion. Whether Armageddon results is not the point; failure to acknowledge the distinct possibility that we might well be headed that way is.

 

[BBSA]

The "doom and gloom" advocates just makes the situation worse. The economy is very psychological - There’s a herd instinct. That herd instinct kicked into overdrive after the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers, when many say the economy fell off a cliff and a classical cyclical downturn merged with a nasty one-of-kind credit crunch. So yes, I agree things are bad, but they need to be put into perspective.

Constantly talking down the economy is not helpful at all. I'm not sure what your motives are.

 

[StrongTurd]

Suppose all of these bailouts don't work (and all indications thus far point to this actually being the case) then what is the likely outcome? A depression that will make the 1930s look like a Sunday picnic, right?

In essence, if we don't manage to turn this thing around then we'll be entering the biggest economic disaster in modern history before this year is out. Our very way of life is threatened.

Now you've got to ask yourself this: Why would you object to anybody feeling inclined to discuss this, potentially the biggest event in any of our lives? I for one feel pretty much threatened by all of this and I prefer not to bury my head in the sand, so to speak. It is not my intention to offend you or anybody else by keeping this thread alive. It is just that at this point in time I find it far more stimulating to discuss the world economy rather than Joost's antics with a hooker. Horses for courses and all that.

 

[BBSA]

By all means talk about it, but please keep it balanced!

 

[Lord Anubis]

Wonder what state/condition the Catholic church's funds are in?

 

[BBSA]

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly up 1 percent

Data showed US retail sales increase of 1% in January, the highest reading since May 2008. Analysts expected a drop of .8%, so this comes as an unexpected surprise. That is some positive economic news I can get behind, and hope for more.

Read the full story at Reuters

 

[Aeron]

Real convenient, Turd. Not only do you refuse to reply to a post because you are narrow minded enough to not even consider the possibility of oil being controlled, but when BBSA gives you information you also ignore that?

Conspiracy theory? Is that the moniker you place on any idea you refuse to believe? Kind of like a religious zealot. Have you ever heard of price fixing? Tiger Brands fixing food prices=conspiracy? Like Albany bread fixing prices was a conspiracy. Companies are out to make a profit, not appease Joe citizen. And they are willing to do anything within the bounds of reason to do so.

I'd like to introduce a concept to you, it's called OPEC. It is an organization that controls the world's oil. No, not a conspiracy theory. Look it up on wikipedia. OPEC annually sets the limit of oil barrels exported that year, to regulate the price of oil according to the wonderful supply and demand concepts. Otherwise some ****ed up African country strikes black gold and dumps a billion barrels of oil a day in the export market and sends the oil price into the tens. Just like the rotting rice containers in China to ensure a high price of rice internationally. It's not some dreamt up conspiracy theory and it's really not that difficult to understand. I suggest you open your eyes a bit wider and see the bigger picture. Price fixing are teh realitiez. Happens in every industry, but _especially_ in food and oil, since those two things affect the most people.

 

[icyrus]

In essence, if we don't manage to turn this thing around then we'll be entering the biggest economic disaster in modern history before this year is out. Our very way of life is threatened.

How do you personally see that playing out?

 

[StrongTurd]

Mr. Aeron: I am truly honest when I say that I don't have the inclination to argue peak oil theory with you. I see it as such a waste of energy.

It'll go something like this:

I'll provide you with all the evidence that peak oil is real and is going to have a direct and devastating impact on the world's economy in years to come. I'll quote liberally from the ASPO website.

I'll provide links that even the IEA considers PO to be a reality (it doesn't get more credible than that, by the way).

I'll provide graphs that point to the steady and inexorable decline in the discovery of new oil fields since the 70s.

I'll provide EROEI calculations for light sweet crude vs tar sands, shale oil, biofuels, coal to liquid and deepwater fields which shows that alternative sources of crude oil will never be price competitive with LSC.

I'll point out the paradox of peak oil vs climate change and that if the one doesn't get us, the other will.

I'll reason that, unless we can produce more than 82.09 mbpd, then it will mean that peak oil has already happened because that production figure happened in May 2005 and has yet to be eclipsed.

I'll explain why a < $40 oil price is exactly in line with classic peak oil theory as per Dr. Hubbard.

I'll explain why PO does not mean that we're running out of oil but rather that we're running out of CHEAP oil and that oil reserves might in fact increase if unconventional sources are added (but at a price that is too high for our economy to tolerate).

I'll post links indicating why OPEC is unable to control world oil prices to any significant degree (by their own admission) and that the second biggest oil producer in the world is not a member of OPEC and that OPEC only controls 40% of the world's oil reserves and as such is not in a position to monopolise the market.

I'll provide conclusive evidence that Russian oil production has peaked in 2008 and that Mexico is in such a steep decline curve that they'll become a net importer by 2012.

I'll show that almost all oil exporting countries (bar about 5) have peaked and that we require the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia to come online every two years just to offset declining production from existing fields without even starting to provide for increased demand.

I'll ask you to explain how exactly OPEC is controlling the market (as per your theory) when the current oil price is $35 per barrel despite OPEC's numerous production cuts. I'll also ask you to explain why OPEC members like Venezuela and Mexico are facing economic collapse due to the current oil price if indeed they were in a position to control the market.

I'll ask you why most deepwater projects have either been put on hold or canceled altogether when these reserves were able to compete with LSC. I'll ask you to explain why production at the Alberta tar sands has actually started declining despite the massive reserves that those fields contain. I'll ask you what is going to happen if world oil demand would suddenly recover in 2010 when we have virtually stopped the development of new fields due to the current oil price.

You, on the other hand, will counter by saying that PO might happen in the distant future but that it is at least decades away and as such does not to warrant any urgent attention. You'll argue that the trillions of barrels sitting under the sands of Utah will more than make up for any production losses in existing fields (despite its horrendous EROEI). You'll say that, even if oil runs out, the free market system will just seamlessly transition to electric cars, wind farms and solar power.

So as you can see, there is more than enough hard evidence that I can present you with to keep us both busy for a long time. But what will the end result be? We'll still hold opposing views. Should we not rather just agree to disagree, as the politicians are so fond of saying? I for one do not have the energy nor the inclination to go down this road. Call this a cop out if you wish. I just couldn't be bothered.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Well Strongturd, what are you doing to prepare yourself for this absolute meltdown we're facing?

 

[StrongTurd]

Toxic: I've been asked that same question just 2 pages back. Here's what I replied with:

Let's just say that I am actively preparing for the worst. I'm not feeling comfortable to divulge much details as to the specifics of what I'm doing apart from saying that they're all legal and all very logical if you think about it.

What do we all need to stay alive? We can surely do without the internet, computers, iPods, mobile phones, cars, even electricity. What one should provide for is food, water, shelter, clothing, medical supplies and self defense. The rest are details. I would also suggest to anyone that is serious about preparing for a possibly chaotic future to start by getting a good bug-out bag ready for each member of your family.

Again, I'm going to remain vague here but let me add a few pointers:

Get out of debt. Sell that luxury car and buy something with 4 wheels that will provide transportation for as long as the system holds together. Don't buy any crap just to keep up with the Joneses. Accumulate enough food to last your family for a full year (it is less than what you would imagine). Learn skills that are relevant to a post carbon world - stuff like growing and preserving food, raising animals, fixing stuff (mechanically, electrically and electronically), defending yourself and your property, staying healthy without modern medicines, securing fresh water when the taps run dry. There are many others. Most of all, learn how to function as part of a community. No man is an island, especially in hard times.

Seeing that none of us can predict the future with any degree of certainty, one might get swept away by events that nobody could foresee. In the end one's chances of getting through this relatively unscathed will probably be based on pure luck. History has shown, however, that luck tends to favour the prepared.

 

[icyrus]

If you're expecting mad maxian style collapse than the only thing you need to stock up on is guns and ammo.

 

[StrongTurd]

There's no sure way of predicting if we're going to have a slow collapse (like GD1, USSR, Argentina, Cuba, Zimbabwe etc) or a fast crash scenario with a complete and sudden breakdown of law and order. There are more historic examples of the former so I'm leaning towards that for being the likely outcome.

Having said that, a fast crash is entirely possible given our utter dependence on an uninterrupted supply of commodities in order to cover pretty much all of our needs. I saw stats somewhere pointing out that, if fuel supplies were to be cut immediately, virtually every single shop in the affected area will have bare shelves within as short a period as 1 week. Under such a scenario you're likely to see massive social unrest with zombie hordes roaming the streets picking off the weak and the undefended.

I doubt that your shotgun and your 9 mil with a couple of cases of ammo is going to save you when that happens. You cannot eat your ammo, for instance, and you're bound to run out of it sooner or later. Also, the local warlord with his supply of ex-military hardware is going to make your guns look like pea shooters. With a couple of mounted 50 caliber machine guns, a good supply of AKs and a couple of mortars and RPGs, you can wreak massive havoc. IMHO by far your best chance of survival would lie in a community of like-minded people.

But to come back to my original point: I'm not seeing the possibility of a fast crash as being very large. We'll probably see a slow decline that could take decades to unwind. Under such circumstances if local communities can learn to become self sufficient by shutting down their globalised economy and rebooting it on a local scale, so to speak, you might find that those communities might not only survive relatively unscathed, but that they might actually thrive.

 

[StrongTurd]

Soros sees no bottom for world financial "collapse"

It is not my intention to constantly push this thread to the top of the forum just for kicks but sometimes I encounter news stories that are just too significant not to discuss. Have you ever come across anything like this in your entire life before? Unless you're the age of my grandfather then I bet you haven't.

Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.

Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.

He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.

"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."

His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.

Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.

"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.

 

[RandomDesign]

Well Strongturd, what are you doing to prepare yourself for this absolute meltdown we're facing?

Realistically there isn't a lot the masses can do. Most of them could avoid flopping around like a fish at the bottom of a cracked tank helplessly puckering its lips going "wha..? how...? when..?? I don unnerstannn" when the system collapses around them and Zim type living conditions of recent years settle in as the norm (i.e. ridiculous inflation, f-all supply of goods, eventual rioting and govt troops vs the people type scenarios).
It bemuses me that even now people refuse to acknowledge the auto-industry is a corpse on life support. Maybe being in denial about this makes it easier to also not see the avalanche of side-effects currently collecting pace and size for the future. Which leads us back to a bunch of willfully ignorant and blind fish now helplessly flopping about the bottom of the tank after watching the water leak away for years, puckering the now worthless questions... "whhhhhaaa??? i donn unnerstann how..."

Just keep your head down and nose to the grindstone, nothing's wrong, everything's gonna be fine, look at the ball! yes, look at the ball! he's kicking it!! FFFIFFFFFAAAAAA woooooo go sports go the car industry is fine look I'm driving to the game to win because I obey my thirst and life is good and oil is only $40 a barrel and we only use 80 million barrels a day and I'm lovin' it and I just do it, today, tomorrow, together.