The End.

[Lord Anubis]

My bet is on October 09. The US fed will belly up. Eastern Europe, Uk and Russia too. 2010 world cup stadiums will be kind of empty next year

 

[PeterCH]

My bet is on October 09. The US fed will belly up. Eastern Europe, Uk and Russia too. 2010 world cup stadiums will be kind of empty next year

So France, Germany, Japan and China will survive then? What about Hugo Chavez' Venezuela or Cuba?

Actually the only country really in trouble in E. Europe is Hungary. And right with it is Austria. Secondly there is a risk for the Baltics but rest of E. Europe
looks better than W. Europe where the losses are more and business is moving out of places like Ireland.

I get what you're trying to say but there are places in way more trouble than those on your list. Japan is in bid doggy doo. They can however afford to bail their people out with cash, for a long time. India is fscked. China is facing political instability - their growth projections are lower this year. We may see regime change in China this year. Anyway....

 

[Lord Anubis]

200bps cut tomorrow???

 

[Chicken Boo]

China calls for new global currency

China calls for new global currency

By JOE McDONALD – 3 days ago

BEIJING (AP) — China is calling for a new global currency controlled by the International Monetary Fund, stepping up pressure ahead of a London summit of global leaders for changes to a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar and Western governments.

The comments, in an essay by the Chinese central bank governor released late Monday, reflect Beijing's growing assertiveness in economic affairs. China is expected to press for developing countries to have a bigger say in finance when leaders of the Group of 20 major economies meet April 2 in London to discuss the global crisis.

Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan's essay did not mention the dollar by name but said the crisis showed the dangers of relying on one nation's currency for international payments. In an unusual step, the essay was published in both Chinese and English, making clear it was meant for an international audience.
...

China has also been changing long-term treasury bill for short term... sounds like someone doesn't want to get stuck holding a bunch of worthless IOUs

Anyone holding USD would do well to divest of them now...

 

[PeterCH]

China calls for new global currency


China has also been changing long-term treasury bill for short term... sounds like someone doesn't want to get stuck holding a bunch of worthless IOUs

Anyone holding USD would do well to divest of them now...

That's not really true. No-one is seriously worried about Chinese rhetoric. Why?
Because there's no other currency or safe haven to invest in. If China were to sell US Govt bonds - they'd need buyers - and that would be difficult and secondly, their accumulated savings over the years would become worthless. China has no option but to BUY US DEBT - there simply is nothing else to buy, unless you mean Japanese government debt - which is even bigger - and hardly likely to happen. This is rhetoric China is spouting to turn world attention from itself and for the sake of its own people. China needs US Debt - as it's the safest thing on earth.

Here is Luo Ping himself:

Mr Luo, speaking at the Global Association of Risk Management’s 10th Annual Risk Management Convention, said: “Except for US Treasuries, what can you hold?” he asked. “Gold? You don’t hold Japanese government bonds or UK bonds. US Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including China, it is the only option.”

Here's more:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ba857be6-f8...94-b4d2-11dd-b780-0000779fd18c,print=yes.html

Over the past two decades, the United States and China have developed a special relationship based on the safety of U.S. debt. In essence, the United States gives China access to the wealthiest consumer market in the world, which in turn soaks up China’s massive output of consumer goods. This not only provides income for Chinese exporters, but also helps ensure social stability in China by providing employment — which is Beijing’s primary economic policy goal. China in turn invests its large trade surpluses, earned in U.S. dollars, into U.S. Treasury debt (e.g., 30-year bonds or 10-year notes). This allows China to store its earnings in one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, without needing to convert between currencies. Meanwhile, the recycling of surpluses into Treasury instruments helps to bankroll continued U.S. spending. It is vendor financing on a global scale.

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/02/why_china_needs_us_debt.html

 

[Lord Anubis]

Wouldn't gold or even oil be a safer bet than US$'s?

 

[boramk]

Guys, face it, the dollar will remain reserve currency for the world for a LONG time...

 

[boramk]

oil be a safer bet than US$'s?

From $147 to less then $50 in a matter of months lol

 

[PeterCH]

Wouldn't gold or even oil be a safer bet than US$'s?

Gold is only worth as much others will pay for it, plus there isn't enough in the world to cover these huge debts and loans. While behind the US you have the most advanced economy, the most geopolitically stable and strong nation - covering virtually a whole continent. Great natural infrastructure (rivers), great built infrastructure (road and rail) and raw product reserves plus a huge pool of hard working, educated people. No-one else can rival and if the USA collapses - the rest of the world will follow suit.

 

[StrongTurd]

Car sales are down about 40% so far this month

No end in sight yet:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Auto sales in the first two weeks of March were down 40% compared to the same period last year, according to industry analysts at J.D. Power and Associates.

 

[StrongTurd]

China says industrial profits down 37 percent

China is hurting badly too:

BEIJING (AP) — Profits at China's oil producers, steel makers and other major industrial companies fell sharply in January and February as sales were battered by the global economic crisis, data showed Friday.
The data highlighted the impact of China's downturn on even its biggest companies despite a multibillion-dollar government stimulus plan.
Hardest-hit were producers of aluminum and other nonferrous metals, which suffered a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan ($277 million), the National Bureau of Statistics said. It said the iron and steel industry suffered a net loss of 770 million yuan ($112 million), though the biggest producers have said they were still profitable.
China's overall economic growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from 2007's stunning 13 percent rate as exports plunged and domestic sales of real estate, autos and other goods weakened. Independent economists expect growth as low as 5 percent this year, which would be the fastest for any major economy but would hurt companies that rely on rapid growth in exports and investment.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j1FZRNA_nf7XY7YePH-Od-tdunFAD9766JN80

 

[Chicken Boo]

Gold is only worth as much others will pay for it,

so are dollars

While behind the US you have the most advanced economy,

a year ago that could've been said to be true. nowadays, it's not looking so invincible.

the most geopolitically stable and strong nation - covering virtually a whole continent.

um yeah I'm sure every other country on the continent would love that. besides which, things are not so stable. Argentina's already been bankrupted. Venezuela, Chile, Peru all have ongoing problems with American corporations/inserted regimes interfering with local populations and economies. Mexico is not looking so content. Columbia.. er yeah ok what were you saying?

Great natural infrastructure (rivers),

ja ok they have rivers. What are they going to do, sail their debt around?

great built infrastructure (road and rail)

they have roads.. but apparently some need new bridges
rail is really not much better than ours.
the cities with good transport have way too many people using them.

and raw product reserves

of? debt?

plus a huge pool of hard working, educated people.

yeah, all educated and experienced in non-menial work. even auto workers priced themselves out of the market. you think someone formerly earning $90k a year for sitting an an air-conned office and playing solitaire inbetween internet sessions wants to sit in a factory and make shoes for $1 a day? America's manufacturing days are done and gone. Even if they could (and be competitor to... China), to make exporting viable they'd have to lower the dollar value... and there China would be, watching its held dollar value slowly melt away.

No-one else can rival and if the USA collapses - the rest of the world will follow suit.

too big too fail sentiment
I think some (non-American) people's eyes have opened and seen there isn't really a "too" big. Big can fail. and besides I think some countries are tired of being America's enabler.

 

[Aeron]

Rome fell, the Ottoman Empire fell, the British Empire fell, the Greeks fell. America will fall. It's just a question of when and where.

 

[Lord Anubis]

I think people (US citizens in particular) believe Obama will save the US...pity about all the carp he's been spewing (e.g. saying GM should liquidate)!

 

[TonyHawk]

Rome fell, the Ottoman Empire fell, the British Empire fell, the Greeks fell. America will fall. It's just a question of when and where.

According to "The Obama Deception" video... we need the "Bilderberg Group" to collapse --- the "Rockerfellers, Rothschilds and others"
Then only will society be rebuilt.... but we will need to restart from grass roots

 

[Aeron]

True. Haven't watch teh Osama desepshin yet but know about the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Krupps, Li dynasty, Astor, DuPont, Oppenheimers, etc. And in case the "ACK!! CONSPIRACY!!!!" people start going "ACK!!! CONSPIRACY!!!" read up about those families. Trace them through history.

 

[StrongTurd]

U.S. Preparing a Military Response to Coming Social Chaos

You've got to hand it to the US military; they are definitely not stupid! When they see the need to assign 80 000 troops into a "domestic emergency army" given their not inconsiderable prior engagements, you've got to sit up and take notice:

A new report by the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute states flatly the U.S. military must prepare for "a violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States" that could be provoked by "unforeseen economic collapse" or "loss of functioning political and legal order."

Late last year, The Washington Post noted the incoming Obama Administration is going to "earmark" at least 20,000 troops returning from Iraq to deal with "domestic emergencies." Since then, the Army Times has broken the story that the domestic emergency army unit has been increased to 80,000 troops, who are being trained right now in Georgia.

In short, U.S. officials expect big trouble ahead - but they are not warning the general public about the danger (much less urge the unsuspecting masses to make basic preparations).

None of this should come as a surprise to anyone that has spent some time researching the coming depression that we are now entering. Still, the article that this post is based on makes for some fascinating reading. I'll quote a few extracts for those too lazy to ready the full story:

You see, a government-consumer debt bubble 20+ years in the making is imploding - as desperate federal meddling to stave off financial collapse is "funded" by frantic funny-money printing to shower trillions of dollars over a restive public.

Even "mainstream" financial figures are finally admitting we may be in more than a recession. For example, the CEO of General Electric, Jeff Immelt, recently conceded the U.S. may be descending into a depression.

Until a few short months ago, official Washington wasn't even using the "R" word. The "experts" are finally fessing up to what the rest of us can already see: Ghost malls springing up from coast to coast, with an estimated 148,000 store closures projected so far for 2009

Congressional Quarterly notes that pension fund losses are about to spill out onto the front pages - with nearly as much financial exposure as that which brought down America's banking giants.

It has not made much news yet, but the pension funds of millions of retirees is down by a whopping $1.9 trillion. This is why cities such as Philadelphia are quietly seeking federal money to bolster pension funds which CQ notes are 60% invested in the stock market - which itself has collapsed by a catastrophic 50% in just the last 18 months.

Not to scare the pants off you, but the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has quietly informed Congress that the "insurance" agency for private pension funds, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, is at high risk of failure. (This will not become a "crisis" until desperate people start trying to tap early retirement money that is not there - for now the looming pension catastrophe remains a "dormant" threat).

Worse, the former head of the U.S. Comptroller General Office, David Walker, essentially told Congress (before resigning in disgust) that the Social Security "Trust Fund" is a vault of IOUs; and Medicare will soon be effectively bankrupt.

The American Association of Architects' historically-reliable construction index has plunged 34.7% - a grim indication the commercial real estate market is the next shoe to drop, which analyst Mike Larson forecasts will lead to an "unstoppable chain reaction of bankruptcies."

Whatever form the "triggering event" takes, not only will millions of Americans suddenly discover they are completely on their own, they will be completely unprepared for the government's draconian response to social chaos.

So there are two categories of people in America right now: Category 1 are the millions of clueless who blissfully assume their political overlords are going to take care of them. These are the people most likely to get caught flat-footed when all hell breaks loose. Category 2 are prudent, savvy people who are taking basic steps toward making their families and their households more self-reliant.

If nothing else, we're in for some interesting times. Buckle up, folks!

 

[TonyHawk]

True. Haven't watch teh Osama desepshin yet but know about the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Krupps, Li dynasty, Astor, DuPont, Oppenheimers, etc. And in case the "ACK!! CONSPIRACY!!!!" people start going "ACK!!! CONSPIRACY!!!" read up about those families. Trace them through history.

Those are some I haven't heard of... thanx for the info
When are people going to realize that these are the richest people in the world... and that they use wars & the banking systems to get richer & keep us in debt 4ever
It is totally beyond me that they still get away with it... our Rupert has businesses with the Rothchilds of Europe... Eish... should sanction them all

 

[StrongTurd]

The oceans are dying

I don't know how I failed to notice this July 2008 story until now:

Today comes the startling news of a British government report showing a drop in oceanic zooplankton of 73 percent since 1960.

For many people, this may seem relatively inconsequential as compared to daily cataclysmic revelations about the state of the national and global economy. This reaction is understandable: we care first and foremost about our own immediate survival prospects, and a new and greater Depression will mean millions losing their homes, millions more their jobs. It's nothing to look forward to.

It takes some scientific literacy to appreciate the implications of the catastrophic loss of microscopic sea animals.

...and...

In his letter, seen by the BBC Scotland news website, Mr Shardlow said: “The disappearance of butterflies, moth, bees, riverflies and other small animals is an environmental tragedy.
“But, despite this experience, we were profoundly shocked to read that zooplankton abundance has declined by about 73% since 1960 and about 50% since 1990.

“This is a biodiversity disaster of enormous proportions.”

Link.

I cannot help but echo Mr. Heinberg's sentiment. I feel utterly ashamed to be a member of the human race. Surely it is now only a matter of time before the biosphere will no longer be able to tolerate our collective carbon footprint after which the laws of nature will take their inevitable and massive toll on our numbers.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that this picture cannot have a happy ending.

 

[StrongTurd]

Catatastrophic fall in 2009 global food production

If my previous post was not startling enough, then here's a related story:

The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of 20 to 40 percent, depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts. Food producing nations are imposing food export restrictions. Food prices will soar, and, in poor countries with food deficits, millions will starve.

The droughts plaguing the world’s biggest agricultural regions should end the debate about deflation in 2009. The demand for agricultural commodities is relatively immune to developments in the business cycles (at least compared to that of energy or base metals), and, with a 20 to 40 percent decline in world production, already rising food prices are headed significantly higher.

In fact, agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Link.

Again, it doesn't take a particularly high IQ to realise that a 20 to 40 percent drop in food production does not bode well for a large percentage of our 7 billion population.