The Long Emergency...

medicnick83

medicnick83

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How long till we run outta oil I wonder...

Anyone wanna toss a ± date?

Do you guys have ANY idea how SCREWED we'll be after oil runs out?
 
HelloThere : It would be nice if you didn't just suck a number from nowhere and actually had something reasoned to add to a discussion.

gdiza : It all depends on which side of the debate you believe... some people are saying we're running out and will be out in 75 or some other short amount of time. Other people are saying there are still reserves to be found that should give us 300 or 400 years left.

Personally I'm guessing if we keep going out our current rate of consumption about 200 years and oil will become v scarce and within the next 100 years it will become so expensive that it will no longer be viable.
 
Apparently Alaska has enough oil to last the USA for quite a while.
Antarctica also has oil.
The oceans have plenty of oil, but exploration is expensive.
 
I don't think we will run out.

GrumpyOldMan seems to have an imaginary friend.
 
high oil price - makes exploration viable OR makes a strong case for alternative fuel sources?
 
You don't think we'll run out HelloThere?

Wow, thats naivety on a grand bloody scale
 
I would think; Strong case for people to get off their asses and start finding alternate sources for fuel because when shyte hits the fan, it's already too late.
 
I think there's enough oil to last for at least another century or two. The middle east still has lots, alaska is largely untapped, and Petrobras recently found massive reserves off their coast.
 
Isnt this what [searchforum]peak oil[/searchforum] is all about?
 
gdiza said:
How long till we run outta oil I wonder...

Anyone wanna toss a ± date?

Do you guys have ANY idea how SCREWED we'll be after oil runs out?
Click to expand...

I recall them making an estimate on oil reserves in the "Who Killed the Electric Car" doccie. I'll have to watch it again and get back to you :D.
 
I wish posters, or moderators if it was them, would not delete posts no matter how absurd they are. If a poster says something stupid he should not be able to delete it so we can all see how stupid they are. I come into this thread late and see lot's of talk about HelloThere but cannot for the life of me find his post...

Just some quick googling...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

Proven, probable and possible reserves are the three most common categories of reserves used in the oil industry. They are intended to represent the probability that a reserve exists based on the geologic and engineering data and interpretation for a given location, though many governments refuse to disclose verifying data to support their claims.
Click to expand...

HTML: 
"Proven" reserves in order
Summary of Reserve Data as of 2007 
 	Reserves 1 	Production 2 	Reserve life 3
	(109bbl) 	(106bpd) 	(years)
Saudi	260 	8.8 	81
Canada 	179 	2.7 	182
Iraq 	115 	3.7 	101
Iran 	105 	2.2 	143
Kuwait 	99 	2.5 	108
UAE 	97 	2.5 	107
Vnz	80 	2.4 	91
Russia 	60 	9.5 	17
Libya 	41.5 	1.8 	63
Nigeria 36.2 	2.3 	43
US 	21 	4.9 	12
Mexico 	12 	3.2 	10

Notes:

    1. Claimed or estimated reserves in billions (109) of barrels. (Source: Oil & Gas Journal, January, 2007)
    2. Production rate in millions (106) of barrels per day (Source: US Energy Information Authority, September, 2007)
    3. Reserve life in years, calculated as reserves / annual production. (from above)


Then this article goes on to say that these guys reckon that these reserve figures are incorrect and we will start to run out in four years.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...ter-than-expected-warn-scientists-453068.html

So it seems that our guesses are a little meaningless as even the "experts" differ in their predictions.

What does go through my mind is how much of a crisis it will really be? I have an inkling that the move to other fuel sources is being prevented to a large degree by powerful OPEC countries and the major fuel companies and vehicle manufacturers that are in the back pockets of the leaders of the most powerful countries. The technology exists to make changes already but those companies that are still reaping rewards from old outdated technologies for which they have massive production lines in place and which they have paid off the R&D for are reluctant to have to fork out again for changes... or perhaps even more fearful of losing their monopolistic holds. So they squash any plans to introduce other fuel sources. Unless of course they can get their fingers in the pie.

Perhaps running out of fuel will prompt a quicker deployment of these other fuel sources.... we can only hope they do not take Eskom's example and wait to run out first before doing something!
 
We passed the peak production 12 years ago.
From now it is running out.

I would say another 10 years before it becomes too expensive to be economically viable to use as fuel in cars.
Another 20 till it's gone.
 
I reckon we won't run out of oil.
I personally believe that by say +- 2060 we will be far more energy efficient and using alternative sources of energy and therefore we will have no use for oil. So we won;t run out of oil we just won't use it (or much of it anyway)
 
Piepalook said:
We passed the peak production 12 years ago.
From now it is running out.

I would say another 10 years before it becomes too expensive to be economically viable to use as fuel in cars.
Another 20 till it's gone.
Click to expand...

Where do you get that from? The pessimistic view I found only said peak would be reached in four years time yet you say 12 years ago already.


Which is definitely wrong as production has increased in that time...
 
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