The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1626241671535919108

The premier announced he had requested the provincial treasury to allocate R1-billion to respond to the energy crisis in the upcoming three-year budget cycle. This would be to respond to the short-term impact of rolling blackouts on government services, and secure diesel to keep essential public services running during load shedding. The allocation would also help to buffer schools from power cuts as “our children’s education must come first”.
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PrimeSteak said:
I'd say MF and NFP would fall away post-2024. ATM might hold on with a seat or two.
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You are probably underestimating the resilience of NFP, parties like that have the annoying tendency of sticking around, even if they stay below 1% for five consecutive elections. They got more votes than the UF partners UDM and COPE, they are the 5th biggest party in KZN, beating the ACDP, ActionSA, ATM and the Freedom Front.

They actually increased their voter share between 2019 and 2021, they are going to be a factor in KZN in 2024 and beyond. You might perhaps be clouded in your judgment because they are now friends with the ANC and anyone who goes into a coalition with the ANC is going to die like the Patriotic Alliance.
 
TheChamp said:
You are probably underestimating the resilience of NFP, parties like that have the annoying tendency of sticking around, even if they stay below 1% for five consecutive elections. They got more votes than the UF partners UDM and COPE, they are the 5th biggest party in KZN, beating the ACDP, ActionSA, ATM and the Freedom Front.
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With the rise of parties like BOSA, RISE and ASA, small "old" parties like NFP, ATM, and MF will be coup de graced next year.

With ACDP and VF+ growing in slivers as they have nationwide, alongside DA, IFP and PA (sadly PA seems to be doing the same atm) also moving up, eventually, some of the smaller "old" parties will be shunted out. It is what it is.

On national scale, COPE, GOOD and UDM even are at risk.
TheChamp said:
They actually increased their voter share between 2019 and 2021, they are going to be a factor in KZN in 2024 and beyond.
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NFP on a national scale:

2011: 2.4%
2014: 1.57%
2016: 0.01%
2019: 0.35%
2021: 0.56%

NFP in KZN:
2014: 7.31%
2019: 1.57%

en.wikipedia.org

National Freedom Party - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Things don't look good for them.
 
Priapus said:
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:ROFL: :ROFL:
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Here is a complete list of everything of substance the government has done with its state-of-disaster emergency powers to actually solve the electricity crisis so far.

[This space is intentionally left blank.]



(This is a developing story. Check back for updates.)
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You love to see it. :ROFL:
 
PrimeSteak said:
With the rise of parties like BOSA, RISE and ASA, small "old" parties like NFP, ATM, and MF will be coup de graced next year.

With ACDP and VF+ growing in slivers as they have nationwide, alongside DA, IFP and PA (sadly PA seems to be doing the same atm) also moving up, eventually, some of the smaller "old" parties will be shunted out. It is what it is.

On national scale, COPE, GOOD and UDM even are at risk.

NFP on a national scale:

2011: 2.4%
2014: 1.57%
2016: 0.01%
2019: 0.35%
2021: 0.56%

NFP in KZN:
2014: 7.31%
2019: 1.57%

en.wikipedia.org

National Freedom Party - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Things don't look good for them.
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2.3% in KZN in 2021 just for more perspective. They surely have fallen from grace since the days of kaMagwaza Msibi, but they are still going nowhere in 2024.

You seem rather optimistic about BOSA and RISE but they are not going to trouble the likes of NFP, we are talking about different constituencies here, those two are going to take votes from the likes of the ANC, DA, ActionSA and the likes not NFP. In fact I see RISE as just another purple cow, between RISE and NFP I would bet money on RISE fizzling out after 2024.
 
TheChamp said:
They surely have fallen from grace since the days of kaMagwaza Msibi, but they are still going nowhere in 2024.
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I disagree.
TheChamp said:
You seem rather optimistic about BOSA and RISE
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Yeah, more because of the way they approach things in a new way, they might bring more undecided/abstainer voters into the system at the very least with something new.

Perhaps they'll help bring more people into the system and they'll eventually support other parties as well (hopefully UF-minded parties).

And it does seem that's what the UF (at least DA and ASA) are trying to do regarding trying to bring back those voters (especially young/first-timers) to the table as well.
TheChamp said:
but they are not going to trouble the likes of NFP, we are talking about different constituencies here, those two are going to take votes from the likes of the ANC, DA, ActionSA and the likes not NFP.
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What makes NFP that special then?
TheChamp said:
In fact I see RISE as just another purple cow, between RISE and NFP I would bet money on RISE fizzling out after 2024.
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I disagree. I think it would be the other way around. At best NFP, will lose their Parly seats and cling on to 1 seat in KZN Parly in 2024.
 
PrimeSteak said:
No. Parliament should be able to hold the President accountable (at least in theory, because that's not possible atm).

I don't see why the no-confidence thing would have to disappear tho if the President is directly elected?

Also, if the people can directly elect their President, it would serve the separation of powers.
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If the President is directly elected, their mandate comes from the people not Parliament.

Most executive Presidents around the world are not accountable to their Parliaments because Parliament doesn't empower those Presidents.

SA Presidents can be removed through a no confidence vote purely because the President is elected by Parliament.

Think of a scenario where an executive President is directly elected but their party does not hold a majority in Parliament. If Parliament can remove the President through a no confidence vote, it negates the people's choice of President.
 
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