The SA Politics Thread Part 6

[Grant]

Time for Cyril to show some backbone.

if you look really carefully, you may just see the masts of that ship disappearing beyond the horizon

 

[DentistGuy]

Who would want what?

-I think the MK wants Rama. out and for charges to be dropped and reinstallation of many of the people in the faction - not likely but Rama. might walk the plank anyway. He has enough money- I don't think he needs this sh&t. The other demands may be too much.

-Julius might accept the Minister of Finance and departments to do with land reforms or the deputy presidency

-The PA wants home affairs (which is a stoopid department to want to be in charge of)

-I think the DA would probably take a deputy presidency- more pro- West policies, relook at BRICS etc. But they may decrease their demands if they think the ANC will take the EFF-PA route.

Business would want ANC-DA. Some in the ANC would want to go the EFF or MK route and towards populism. If they chose the DA route then they will get economic stability but at a cost of the future of the party and many possible policy changes that would isolate their core and the electorate.

If they choose the EFF they will will choose populism at the expense of the economy. But may stabilise and make the arrangement more palatable to the core electorate.

Cyril has a last duty to both the country and to the ANC- to choose his coalition wisely. I don't see him being around for another term.

 

[Garson007]

The ANC will not get into an agreement with the DA, if a precondition is placed on the functions of the State, e.g. Foreign policy. Why would they?

 

[DentistGuy]

The ANC will not get into an agreement with the DA, if a precondition is placed on the functions of the State, e.g. Foreign policy. Why would they?

In the coalition agreements they would need to negotiate these terms.

Uncertain times for South Africa’s foreign policy as country heads for coalition government

The country will see more foreign policy continuity if the ANC partners with smaller parties that share its world view.

theconversation.com

 

[Garson007]

Again, ANC will not compromise on this. It would be bad for the ANC and bad for the State long term, to have a schizophrenic foreign policy for five years and then revert to the mean when a more virulent anti-West cohort gets into power in 2029.

 

[DentistGuy]

Uncertainty and ambiguity spooks the markets. So they would need to partner with a party that they can more easily align to their values.

Investors rather have so-called 'bad, policies' that are set in stone rather than policies using ambiguous language that are uncertain.

 

[ToxicBunny]

In the coalition agreements they would need to negotiate these terms.

Uncertain times for South Africa’s foreign policy as country heads for coalition government

The country will see more foreign policy continuity if the ANC partners with smaller parties that share its world view.

theconversation.com

I very much doubt massive foreign policy shifts would dictate anything with the coalition discussions... Maybe a tempering or a shift back to a more non-aligned stance but not anything more than that.

The focus will be on domestic stuff more than anything else.

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

As a DA voter I would not mind a DA/ANC coalition, but it would signal the decline of both parties. In the short term it might provide stability and even growth but long term it would only make the EFF/MK stronger. They would use this as a stick to beat the ANC with calling them sellouts to white people, WMC, Stellenbosch etc. People in the ANC and black voters would see this also as them selling out. I can see many ANC members defecting to MK. Even though it pains to say it, but a strong ANC is needed to keep the wolves at bay. It's awful to think of but maybe an ANC/EFF coalition might be a better option? In the short it would be a shock but maybe placating Malema with a few cabinet positions would de-radicalize him? Incumbency might make him back down from his ideas. This would also kill the EFF in the long run as this tends to happen with smaller parties who join bigger ones.



Does this make sense or am I being very naive?

It won't, as long as they take the next 5 years to strengthen the criminal justice system and start locking up the rot across all the parties.

Zuma needs to go to jail ASAP. That's not even up for debate anymore. And there's plenty more within the ANC and EFF that need to be put away before they can start pushing populist crap...

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

The ANC will not get into an agreement with the DA, if a precondition is placed on the functions of the State, e.g. Foreign policy. Why would they?

The DA doesn't seem to be asking for much.

This is a good read if you have access.

If negotiations proceed, the DA wants certain Cabinet posts, but not key positions like the minister of finance or social development. The DA would also like to chair important portfolio committees, as well as the deputy speakership of the National Assembly. According to a source, the ANC does not find these requests excessive. For example, it is willing to renegotiate legislation such as the National Health Insurance and the Basic Education Laws Amendment Bill.

Push for Ramaphosa to fall on sword as calls mount against his reinstatement as president | City Press

City Press has learnt that discussions are already under way between senior leaders in the ANC, the EFF and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) to form a coalition, but Ramaphosa is not part of them.

www.news24.com

 

[DentistGuy]

It won't, as long as they take the next 5 years to strengthen the criminal justice system and start locking up the rot across all the parties.

Zuma needs to go to jail ASAP. That's not even up for debate anymore. And there's plenty more within the ANC and EFF that need to be put away before they can start pushing populist crap...

KZN will burn.

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

KZN will burn.

Then it needs to burn. And everyone involved needs to be dealt with swiftly and severely this time. No time to fsck around when your very existence is at threat...

 

[Agent67]

An actual decent read from DM.

Zuma and MK’s road post-elections — known and unknown unknowns abound

With uMkhonto we Sizwe party having turned much of our politics upside down, it now has a series of critical decisions to make. In particular, MK needs to convince other parties to work with it, if it…

www.dailymaverick.co.za

Tl;dr version - this is a "Zuma says" party whose sole purpose is revenge. Without a democratic internal process to elect leadership, and with Zuma having the final say in everything, infighting and jostling for positions is inevitable and the party will tear itself apart...

Yeah. The moment uBaba dies, it is gone.

But also, around a tenth want to radically change the Constitution. Only MK wants to abolish it.

 

[Garson007]

The DA doesn't seem to be asking for much.

This is a good read if you have access.

Push for Ramaphosa to fall on sword as calls mount against his reinstatement as president | City Press

City Press has learnt that discussions are already under way between senior leaders in the ANC, the EFF and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) to form a coalition, but Ramaphosa is not part of them.

www.news24.com

I'd rather they negotiate to have the Speaker position and completely avoid getting involved in the executive.

 

[DentistGuy]

The DA doesn't seem to be asking for much.

This is a good read if you have access.

Push for Ramaphosa to fall on sword as calls mount against his reinstatement as president | City Press

City Press has learnt that discussions are already under way between senior leaders in the ANC, the EFF and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) to form a coalition, but Ramaphosa is not part of them.

www.news24.com

Ah. The NHI being a bargaining chip for Rama. Well played- I guess.

 

[A Third Force]

Time to see if there is any good left in the ANC.

 

[Agent67]

pdf attached

Seems like at least the ANC in general isn't really in the mood for MKP...

City Press has learnt that discussions are already under way between senior
leaders in the ANC, the EFF and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) to form a
coalition, but Ramaphosa is not part of them.
At the same time, informal discussions have already begun between the DA and
people close to Ramaphosa’s camp in the ANC.
Because cooperation with the DA is a sensitive issue for many in the ANC, the
agreement will be marketed as a “broad coalition”, which will include the IFP

The split has begun.

So its either Doomsday or GNU 2...

 

[Jam Sandwich]

Time to see if there is any good left in the ANC.

That shouldn't take too long at all...

 

[Garson007]

Don't see how the current ANC NEC gets into bed with the MK, without mass resignations. They'll have to wait until the next party conference.

 

[Agent67]

I've already read on news24 that senior ANC members are in talks with MK and EFF.

Do you honestly think a party like the ANC, corrupt and racist to the core is going to work with the DA? Are you on drugs?

They're also in talks with DA...

 

[Hush9300]

Time to see if there is any good left in the ANC.

Had Ramaphosa dealt with the RET faction decisively when Zuma got the boot this would have been a nonstarter.

The question now is whether he has the support to ward off this RET faction looking toward the EFF and MK.