The SA Politics Thread

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R13... said:
Has he given up on the OneSA movement which was also supposed to be an umbrella thing?
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IDEK. It seems that, that will still go on as an NGO, and he's creating an "umbrella body" "platform" (i.e reasonable explanation terms for a political party).
 
PrimeSteak said:
www.businesslive.co.za

GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The state of the EFF

You cannot trust a party that refuses to give you an opportunity to trust them
www.businesslive.co.za www.businesslive.co.za

Paywalled.

I would love to read this, but I don't wanna pay R120+ to read one article.
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Conclusion

The EFF’s national support levels remain stable at about 12%, with the possibility of some small growth. This is also true of its provincial support levels in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape; however, in the latter two provinces, its vote share does seem vulnerable to lower turnout.

All this represents a relatively poor showing for the party, given its primary market is the ANC, and the ANC’s dramatic decline, particularly in urban centres such as Gauteng. Party support almost exclusively comprises black South Africans, and is skewed towards males.

Party leader Julius Malema still enjoys a favourability rating above party support levels, suggesting some potential, but in the big picture his favourability is in decline, and his unfavourability rating is at a very high level. This trend is true among ANC voters too.

The EFF’s brand is defined by uncertainty when it comes to issues of governance — voters simply do not have any experience of the EFF in government and so it fares significantly worse than the ANC and DA on core governance issues and attributes.

In the other direction, racism, hatred and violence are now powerfully associated with the EFF brand across the board, and have most likely contributed to its relatively small growth and the decline in its leader’s favourability, in an environment rich with potential for opposition parties.
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So EFF has stagnated. Is basically racially homogenous. And surprisingly, their base is amongst 30 - 59 year old men? Malema's popularity is shrinking. And EFF is best known for racism, violence and hatred (not surprising).
 
PrimeSteak said:
So EFF has stagnated. Is basically racially homogenous. And surprisingly, their base is amongst 30 - 59 year old men? Malema's popularity is shrinking. And EFF is best known for racism, violence and hatred (not surprising).
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You could replace EFF with DA and the article would still be mostly right minus the leader cult thing. The DA is stagnant or declining going by the last two rounds of election. Gareth, I repeat, is a DA (Zille/JS) shill and blinded in one eye.
 
R13... said:
You could replace EFF with DA and the article would still be mostly right minus the leader cult thing. The DA is stagnant or declining going by the last two rounds of election. Gareth, I repeat, is a DA (Zille/JS) shill and blinded in one eye.
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Conclusion

DA support levels have stabilised, nationally and provincially. Its voters hold up on lower turnout and its support levels are strongest in urban centres. The test will be whether it is able to hold at current levels or grow further still. Gauteng will be of some concern to the party, as it appears to have stagnated despite a serious decline for the ANC. The DA’s stabilisation is underpinned by some growth among black voters, and a marginal decline among white voters, but both are volatile and current levels are not indicative of long term trends. The party remains the most racially diverse political party in terms of its support base. While there are high levels of racial distrust in the DA on some issues, there is also a significant pool of voters who seem immune to these kinds of attacks on it. John Steenhuisen remains relatively unfamiliar to a large proportion of voters, but there are signs, among those familiar with him, that his favourability is improving. The DA’s brand as a party of clean and efficient governance is very powerful — the strongest among all the big political parties — and that is likely to remain the cornerstone of its offer to voters.
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www.businesslive.co.za

GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The state of the DA

Support has stabilised, underpinned by some growth among black voters and a marginal decline among whites, with its brand as a party of clean and efficient governance likely to remain the cornerstone of its appeal
www.businesslive.co.za www.businesslive.co.za
 
PrimeSteak said:
www.businesslive.co.za

GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The state of the EFF

You cannot trust a party that refuses to give you an opportunity to trust them
www.businesslive.co.za www.businesslive.co.za

Paywalled.

I would love to read this, but I don't wanna pay R120+ to read one article.
Click to expand...
It is quite fascinating and I am not giving away too much by saying the survey predicts around 12% support for the EFF (around 10% in 2019); poor considering the ANC is predicted to drop some 8%. Signs are that the EFF formula of "vitriolic contempt and grandstanding" is not resonating.

Also associated mainly with a one man show; Malema and a propensity for poor performance at around 50% of DA perceptions. BUT, the EFF scores high in racism, spreading hatred and violence (the last just less than the ANC) so that should make them happy.
 
PrimeSteak said:
www.businesslive.co.za

GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The state of the DA

Support has stabilised, underpinned by some growth among black voters and a marginal decline among whites, with its brand as a party of clean and efficient governance likely to remain the cornerstone of its appeal
www.businesslive.co.za www.businesslive.co.za
Click to expand...
All this represents a relatively poor showing for the party, given its primary market is the ANC, and the ANC’s dramatic decline, particularly in urban centres such as Gauteng. Party support almost exclusively comprises black South Africans, and is skewed towards males.
Click to expand...
He's either incompetent or dishonest.
The urban vote is there for the DA's taking, but as the last local election showed that vote went to the ASA. How does Gareth explain losses for all of the ANC, EFF and DA but no one gaining aside from ASA? The EFF is true a black party with appeal to the disgruntled youth, but they don't have support outside of that in urban areas. They actually struggle with anyone but the youth even in rural SA where people still vote for the ANC.
 
PrimeSteak said:
So EFF has stagnated. Is basically racially homogenous. And surprisingly, their base is amongst 30 - 59 year old men? Malema's popularity is shrinking. And EFF is best known for racism, violence and hatred (not surprising).
Click to expand...

Worth the two month "trial"? - I might sign up if they have decent stuff
 
R13... said:
He's either incompetent or dishonest.
The urban vote is there for the DA's taking, but as the last local election showed that vote went to the ASA. How does Gareth explain losses for all of the ANC, EFF and DA but no one gaining aside from ASA? The EFF is true a black party with appeal to the disgruntled youth, but they don't have support outside of that in urban areas. They actually struggle with anyone but the youth even in rural SA where people still vote for the ANC.
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What is the difference between the ASA and the DA besides having a black face?
 
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