The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread #2

Scooby_Doo said:
Something to do with the interest rate hike - maybe they were betting on it being more than 0.5%
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Hmm, i dunno about that, more than .5 wasn't going to happen.

Its a case of South Africa being in a terrible position no matter what, higher interest rates means less growth on an economy that's stagnant if not receding.
 
You should ask what must happen to make the rand strenghten and then how likely is that going to happen.
 
Credit where it’s due, ANC doing some lifting at the moment. Hopefully with their knees.
 
I need to buy a few dollars but I'll wait to see where the dollar / rand is on Monday.

I would be happy for a R18.60 exchange rate but lets see.
 
Priapus said:
Will not happen. Nice try though.
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Do not be so sure.

I think AGOA is already off the table for SA and the government has already been informed that it will not be renewed when it expires. The only reason I think this is the fact that the government are now trying to please and explain and sending all sorts of delegations. Also the fact that Afriforum and the DA is begging the US not to punish the people of the country by cancelling AGOA. I think everyone has been informed already, because there is no need for all of this ahead of the expiry, as these agreements normally just gets extended again.

Over and above that, the EU are also looking into possible sanctions against SA.

If the Republicans wins the US elections next year, sanctions are guaranteed for SA and some individual politicians too.
 
rvZA said:
Do not be so sure.

I think AGOA is already off the table for SA and the government has already been informed that it will not be renewed when it expires. The only reason I think this is the fact that the government are now trying to please and explain and sending all sorts of delegations. Also the fact that Afriforum and the DA is begging the US not to punish the people of the country by cancelling AGOA. I think everyone has been informed already, because there is no need for all of this ahead of the expiry, as these agreements normally just gets extended again.

Over and above that, the EU are also looking into possible sanctions against SA.

If the Republicans wins the US elections next year, sanctions are guaranteed for SA and some individual politicians too.
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Does this mean Koeberg won't get any more fuel delivered?
 
rvZA said:
Do not be so sure.

I think AGOA is already off the table for SA and the government has already been informed that it will not be renewed when it expires. The only reason I think this is the fact that the government are now trying to please and explain and sending all sorts of delegations. Also the fact that Afriforum and the DA is begging the US not to punish the people of the country by cancelling AGOA. I think everyone has been informed already, because there is no need for all of this ahead of the expiry, as these agreements normally just gets extended again.

Over and above that, the EU are also looking into possible sanctions against SA.

If the Republicans wins the US elections next year, sanctions are guaranteed for SA and some individual politicians too.
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Well we will have to see. You have a very pessimistic view on life and I don’t. Not to say you’re wrong and I’m right - but nothing in life is guaranteed.

We were meant to have stage 8-10 LS for winter. Guaranteed. It hasn’t happened and doesn’t look like it will…

So yeah nothing is guaranteed. Including sanctions.
 
Priapus said:
Well we will have to see. You have a very pessimistic view on life and I don’t. Not to say you’re wrong and I’m right - but nothing in life is guaranteed.

We were meant to have stage 8-10 LS for winter. Guaranteed. It hasn’t happened and doesn’t look like it will…

So yeah nothing is guaranteed. Including sanctions.
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Ummmm, technically, stage 8 did happen. Repeatedly for a while. They got creative this year, and split big industrial LS and the rest of SA LS, which enabled them to stick with a fudged peak of stage 6.

Previously, industrial curtailment numbers were part of the full SA stages. Comrades accounting.
 
zerocool2009 said:
The US have next week interest rate predictions, and its going up again.

So ja... guess what, we will follow in end July’s mpc meeting
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We don't know that yet. Many analysts say they might pause the hike in June and Powell himself said they might take a breather soon to assess the impact. An uptick in US jobless claims yesterday raises the expectation of a pause for June.

Guess we gotta wait and see next week. Granted, even if they will pause it, it is probably not the end as inflation is not quite under control yet.
 
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The exchange rate could improve massively if all of this alleged power does indeed come online by the end of next year. What was it, 10 000 MW?
 
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