The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
FlashSA said:
Read again.

He wrote the first one in 1977 which correctly predicted the sanctions and end of apartheid.

His second book written in the last year or so has the same name. It is this second book which predicts and maps out the fall of the ANC.
Click to expand...

Oh, okey. Sorry yea I see now Google showed me the old one.

Well damn definitely a book I will buy tomorrow. Thank you kind sir.
 
Thor187 said:
Oh, yea guess reality check wise it would.

But what I don't understand is. This downgrade thing seems like a once you hit it you will never get back.

Because the way I understand is:

We get downgraded.

By law companies can't invest in us even if they want to.

We rely on then now we can't so out economy spiral into fck u.

Now we are in fck u.

How on earth is a country supposed to get out of it.

It feels like having sanctions against you locked out from the outside world while they expect you to keep up.
Click to expand...
Wasn't bad the first time around. Most people can't say they even felt it. Also junk status doesn't mean companies can't invest in us. It's only some foreign pension schemes I'm aware of. What private individuals, institutions and even fund managers do is up to them and the ratings agencies have also lost credibility due to their involvement in the 2007 recession. The real determining factors nowadays are things like the Chinese economy, U.S. job data and even our own employment figures. As we've seen this week 2 out 3 of those being negative has a tremendous impact on us. We'll need another interest rate hike to mitigate them.
 
What's the reason for the rand weakening so much now though?

I would have thought a somewhat positive result from Moody's would have had a positive effect (even though they've assigned a negative outlook)

It can't be the dollar strengthening because the rand is weakening against all currencies.
 
PsYTraNc3 said:
What's the reason for the rand weakening so much now though?

I would have thought a somewhat positive result from Moody's would have had a positive effect (even though they've assigned a negative outlook)

It can't be the dollar strengthening because the rand is weakening against all currencies.
Click to expand...

Our economy is extremely weak. Besides a strong Dollar, unemployment data came out on Monday and is at the same bad levels as after the 2008 recession.

All signs point to an economy that is bleeding jobs, growth and a widening GDP gap. Buckle Up!
 
Swa said:
Wasn't bad the first time around. Most people can't say they even felt it. Also junk status doesn't mean companies can't invest in us. It's only some foreign pension schemes I'm aware of. What private individuals, institutions and even fund managers do is up to them and the ratings agencies have also lost credibility due to their involvement in the 2007 recession. The real determining factors nowadays are things like the Chinese economy, U.S. job data and even our own employment figures. As we've seen this week 2 out 3 of those being negative has a tremendous impact on us. We'll need another interest rate hike to mitigate them.
Click to expand...

People felt it, the interest rate sitting at 25% was quite harsh.
 
Swa said:
Wasn't bad the first time around.
Click to expand...
What first time? SA has never gone from Invest grade to junk grade, only other way round.

Swa said:
Also junk status doesn't mean companies can't invest in us. It's only some foreign pension schemes I'm aware of. What private individuals, institutions and even fund managers do is up to them and the ratings agencies have also lost credibility due to their involvement in the 2007 recession.
Click to expand...
Most of the big money will be in the form of pensions and funds - both are bound by whatever mandate.

Private individuals aren't going to move enough money to matter in this.

Companies - maybe but the ones with serious money I've seen tend to have global treasury departments & keep the SA accounts at a minimum balance and just top it up as needed. Don't seem them moving anything significant as a result of this either way.

Don't think there will be a major problem on the whole with outflows...but I do think funding of public debt is going to become a big problem. The balance has been growing massively in the last 8 or so years, interest rates will increase with a downgrade and the primary buyer of that debt is funds & pensions. That is quickly going to turn into a debt spiral imo....well "quickly" being 10 years.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Possible, the prime lending rate peaked at 25.5% in the late 90's to surpass the previous record of 25% set in the mid-80's:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/bank-lending-rate

28% would have been possible at the bank though if you had a car loan or home loan pegged at prime + 2.5% for example
Click to expand...

It could well be a bond rate I'm remembering, I did have a newish bond arranged around 92-93, but then it is that long ago that I might be remembering the figures wrong.
 
Gtx Gaming said:
Leaning towards a 0.25 increase on Prime at 3pm today ,lets see if I am right :P
Click to expand...

Not sure that's going to happen. The Rand needs the help, but it seems comments coming from SARB and analysts suggest this won't happen. But you never know.
 
Gtx Gaming said:
Leaning towards a 0.25 increase on Prime at 3pm today ,lets see if I am right :P
Click to expand...

I think so too.. albeit the rand recovered (and then fell due to political games), inflation also exactly as expected about 6.5%? i reckon they need to increase it to protect for the impact of drought.
 
krycor said:
I think so too.. albeit the rand recovered (and then fell due to political games), inflation also exactly as expected about 6.5%? i reckon they need to increase it to protect for the impact of drought.
Click to expand...

I heard 6.2% this morning. Although it feels way too low for the roughness that has been the last year.
 
Scooby_Doo said:
Dollar strength, Fed is making sounds which point towards a interest rate increase in the States.
Click to expand...

yah the problem with the states is that their jobs stats is weak.. the jobs created are not so great so its like fronting data
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top
Sign up to the MyBroadband newsletter
X