The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Ai people, so difficult to fathom.

Back to the point, our markets was taking a knock (still is taking) largely due to the uncertainty surrounding China.

We are not too connected to what happens with Trump and America, however trump will have an effect on China thus indirectly trump has an effect on us.
They're talking about it now.

https://youtu.be/Ga3maNZ0x0w
 
pissing contest on who is a bigger forex expert aside.

Is the coming week not d-day for SA's credit rating and potential junk?

Opinions? Think we'll go back to the upper 14s or even 15s? or dodge the bullet and get back to the 13.5ish figure?
 
naeem said:
Is the coming week not d-day for SA's credit rating and potential junk?

Opinions? Think we'll go back to the upper 14s or even 15s? or dodge the bullet and get back to the 13.5ish figure?
Click to expand...

We will get junk. I know that much.
 
There is a very small chance that SA will not be junked now (all hope is not lost) but the political uncertainty is worse now that it was six months ago and that is only one of the big factors, at best it's 50/50.

FTFY said:
We will get drunk. I know that much.
Click to expand...

FTFY.
 
Very strong chance of being downgraded IMO. I would be surprised if we aren't and to be honest, question the agencies if they don't.

Gordhan is pissing against the wind in cabinet and the agencies should be able to see that by now
 
Thor187 said:
Ai people, so difficult to fathom.

Back to the point, our markets was taking a knock (still is taking) largely due to the uncertainty surrounding China.

We are not too connected to what happens with Trump and America, however trump will have an effect on China thus indirectly trump has an effect on us.
They're talking about it now.

https://youtu.be/Ga3maNZ0x0w
Click to expand...
It doesn't matter that we're not too connected with America. Trump's election causes uncertainty. When there's uncertainty emerging markets like us take the knock. Got nothing to do with China and I doubt any investors have done such an in depth analysis.

naeem said:
pissing contest on who is a bigger forex expert aside.

Is the coming week not d-day for SA's credit rating and potential junk?

Opinions? Think we'll go back to the upper 14s or even 15s? or dodge the bullet and get back to the 13.5ish figure?
Click to expand...
Next month.

j4ck455 said:
There is a very small chance that SA will not be junked now (all hope is not lost) but the political uncertainty is worse now that it was six months ago and that is only one of the big factors, at best it's 50/50.



FTFY.
Click to expand...
Actually Moodys said 2 months or so ago the chances of a downgrade is only about 1/3rd, so the chance of junk status is only about 1/9th.

sox63 said:
Very strong chance of being downgraded IMO. I would be surprised if we aren't and to be honest, question the agencies if they don't.

Gordhan is pissing against the wind in cabinet and the agencies should be able to see that by now
Click to expand...
Why? Not much has changed in 12 months and if anything our legal system has proven itself independent in that time so no grounds for a downgrade imho. It seems some people just want us to be downgraded.
 
Swa said:
It doesn't matter that we're not too connected with America. Trump's election causes uncertainty. When there's uncertainty emerging markets like us take the knock. Got nothing to do with China and I doubt any investors have done such an in depth analysis.


Next month.


Actually Moodys said 2 months or so ago the chances of a downgrade is only about 1/3rd, so the chance of junk status is only about 1/9th.


Why? Not much has changed in 12 months and if anything our legal system has proven itself independent in that time so no grounds for a downgrade imho. It seems some people just want us to be downgraded.
Click to expand...
Got nothing to do with China?

Sir you have no idea what your talking about

Moving on.
 
I don't think people want a downgrade, I certainly don't, maintaining the current ratings status quo until [-]Zumatello gets run over by a bus[/-] the impending political earthquake has finished, would be best.
 
Thor187 said:
Got nothing to do with China?

Sir you have no idea what your talking about

Moving on.
Click to expand...

I assume the Shanghai composite must be tanking if the market fears Trump's bluster. Think again:

http://www.economiccalendar.com/201...composite-index-enters-technical-bull-market/

Trump's China threats will sabotage the US economy if implemented- Congress will not allow that.

The market is pricing higher US interest rates, which will halt the carry trade currently supporting EM currencies.
 
Rand losing ground against dollar

Anybody keeping an eye on forex ? Rand has fallen by about 15 cents in 10 minutes, apparently due to interest rate increase in U.S.
 
So it's 0.25%. But nothing on the elephant in the room.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top
Sign up to the MyBroadband newsletter
X