The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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rietrot said:
And that pushes everyone into the dollar as a safe place, which just strengthen the dollar and makes it more difficult for everyone else because all their debt and imports are in dollars.
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Ahead of a crash which is coming end of 2019. Writing is pretty much on the wall for the dollar too.
 
This looks like contagion. One emerging country’s problems have become other emerging countries’ problems, and it’s hard to see how to break the cycle."
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Trump being the major contaminant.

BrianStephan said:
Do you guys believe the currency will ever recover back to R12-R12,50 levels?
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Was there a few months ago so yes. But it will stay at >R10 at least for the next election period.
 
BrianStephan said:
Do you guys believe the currency will ever recover back to R12-R12,50 levels?
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Yeah R11 in August. We have 3 more hours left.

marco said:
The DA has lost the plot. Their political infighting in Cape Town has cost them dearly. EFF may switch alliances to the ANC.
I have never been a supporter of the ANC and the past 10 years or so are a sad era in my mind but things have changed.

I have always liked Cyril and his political views. He is intelligent and a very successful business man and does not need to dip his hands into the cookie jar as he has ample.
For the first time in many years I have faith in the SA economy.

I have for the past 2 years been saying "do not exchange zar to usd" and it was 15 at that time but many did. I will not laugh at them as it is heartbreaking. I stick to 11 or lower by August.
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Folks, you need to purchase ETFs that have access to the US stock market. It's really generating alot of money, beyond my wildest dreams.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Folks, you need to purchase ETFs that have access to the US stock market. It's really generating alot of money.
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Really generating a lot of money or the Rand just depreciating? The US stock market on a whole hasn't done so good over last few years and the Rand will strengthen again. Wrong time to buy but as usual some won't listen and get burned again like they did last year when it was R15/$.
 
Swa said:
Really generating a lot of money or the Rand just depreciating? The US stock market on a whole hasn't done so good over last few years and the Rand will strengthen again. Wrong time to buy but as usual some won't listen and get burned again like they did last year when it was R15/$.
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Well the tech stock has done well but it’s like our JSE.. the handful few. I dunno everyone has theories about what’s happening as QE undoing is a bit of uncharted territory.. that combined with the political risk Trump has brought, isolation sought, anti-trade etc and at the top of a bull market = something gonna give.
 
Swa said:
Trump being the major contaminant.
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I think the major contaminant is apartheid 2.0 that has been institutionalized , into perpetuity. Here , is where the problem is, not there. The few who eat cheese while the rest fight for scraps. Government is too big. The machine does not downsize. It would rather implode.
Matthew 7:3-5
 
Swa said:
Really generating a lot of money or the Rand just depreciating? The US stock market on a whole hasn't done so good over last few years and the Rand will strengthen again. Wrong time to buy but as usual some won't listen and get burned again like they did last year when it was R15/$.
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Not exactly sure, but earned over R5k on Friday. Part of it must be due to the US stock market though...the US economy is BOOMING. And Trump tweeted last week that the NASDAQ reached 8000 for the first time ever, which primarily list tech stocks. Apple makes up the biggest proportion of the ETF - around 4%, with many other tech companies as well. I will say that I moved most of it after Nene was fired, and it was flat/negative territory for most of 2016, but done quite well since Trump was elected as president - this is the fund fact sheet: https://www.sygnia.co.za/docs/defau...index-etf---etf-fund-fact-sheet.pdf?sfvrsn=32

R15/dollar this week I think, looking at the latest graph: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-zar

Also Q2 GDP data will be released tomorrow. Likely to be negative...
 
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I think with all the movement we've had recently, most upcoming info is already priced in. I won't be surprised if we head back towards R14 this week until the next set of bad news.
 
This does not bode well for my modelling Hobby. I import most of my stuff from the UK/US and Aus. Luckily RARU are stocking some of the goods at very very good prices.
 
SaiyanZ said:
I think with all the movement we've had recently, most upcoming info is already priced in. I won't be surprised if we head back towards R14 this week until the next set of bad news.
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More bad news will just make it worse, but for the biggest part the gradual decline of the Rand is inevitable. It won't be stopped. I think the biggest reasons for the decline is capital outflows from the stockmarkets as investors are fleeing the country now and reinvesting / risking in other upcoming markets.
 
SaiyanZ said:
I think with all the movement we've had recently, most upcoming info is already priced in. I won't be surprised if we head back towards R14 this week until the next set of bad news.
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The GDP numbers are out today so i'm guessing market waiting for that..
 
Visser said:
More bad news will just make it worse, but for the biggest part the gradual decline of the Rand is inevitable. It won't be stopped. I think the biggest reasons for the decline is capital outflows from the stockmarkets as investors are fleeing the country now and reinvesting / risking in other upcoming markets.
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Took out some money over the last few weeks. Had it offshore via a local company but now it's in Switzerland never to return. I know a few other people who have done the same. I'm sure it adds up, nevermind the foreign investors that have decided it's too risky to stay in emerging markets.
 
krycor said:
The GDP numbers are out today so i'm guessing market waiting for that..
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Yeah, what I mean is that people are already expecting the worst with all the negative news lately so that is already priced in. If GDP is average or better than expected then it should correct towards R14. If it's bad then not much will happen I think. Will have to wait and see.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Not exactly sure, but earned over R5k on Friday. Part of it must be due to the US stock market though...the US economy is BOOMING. And Trump tweeted last week that the NASDAQ reached 8000 for the first time ever, which primarily list tech stocks. Apple makes up the biggest proportion of the ETF - around 4%, with many other tech companies as well. I will say that I moved most of it after Nene was fired, and it was flat/negative territory for most of 2016, but done quite well since Trump was elected as president - this is the fund fact sheet: https://www.sygnia.co.za/docs/defau...index-etf---etf-fund-fact-sheet.pdf?sfvrsn=32

R15/dollar this week I think, looking at the latest graph: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-zar

Also Q2 GDP data will be released tomorrow. Likely to be negative...
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Here is a post I made in this thread... https://mybroadband.co.za/forum/threads/should-i-kill-my-ra.971657/#post-21978163

Scooby_Doo said:
I have mentioned before, due to the requirement to keep 70% of the money in your RA in SA equity it is far more effective to just pay the tax now and move what you can save internationally or invest in international ETFs. The growth on the JSE is dead and its not going to change any time soon.

Edit,

Here is an example: 2 investments I made on the 1st October 2015 and as of this morning the return is as follows.

Satrix Indi - 11.59% Growth
DBXUS (now called SYGUS) - 51.51% Growth.
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That was on August 23rd, and today.

Satrix Indi - 11.34% Growth
DBXUS (now called SYGUS) - 60.02% Growth
 
Visser said:
More bad news will just make it worse, but for the biggest part the gradual decline of the Rand is inevitable. It won't be stopped. I think the biggest reasons for the decline is capital outflows from the stockmarkets as investors are fleeing the country now and reinvesting / risking in other upcoming markets.
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The drop to R14.85 is that bad news. If it's slightly better than expected it will pick up again towards R14.
 
1 United States Dollar equals
14,99 South African Rand

Argh!!
 
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