The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[wizardofid]

Wasn't sure if I should have waited wasn't going to risk it, converted @ buying rate of 18,30 today have some more dollars coming in next week might hodl for a day or two.

 

[Swa]

They're milking it. No way their supply chain has gone up this quickly and during this time.

 

[Johnatan56]

They're milking it. No way their supply chain has gone up this quickly and during this time.

Probably back-order as well.

 

[Lupus]

They're milking it. No way their supply chain has gone up this quickly and during this time.

Of course they are milking it, in a week? I mean we wouldn't have gotten new stock in a week. I mean I'm waiting for a specific drive for a tape library since February as they are holding it in Quarantine and than the lockdown happened

 

[Brenden_E]

Shi

Wasn't sure if I should have waited wasn't going to risk it, converted @ buying rate of 18,30 today have some more dollars coming in next week might hodl for a day or two.

Shtballs, wondering if I should do the same. Hindsight - should have bought when it was R15 fuuuuu.

 

[wizardofid]

Shi

Shtballs, wondering if I should do the same. Hindsight - should have bought when it was R15 fuuuuu.

Well it works do slightly different for my, while my PayPal account is dollars, I earn commission in pounds. If the pound tanks like it did two weeks or so ago, it costs a bit especially with the 2.5% PayPal currency conversion fee over and above the normal fees.

Rand is pretty stable for the moment, I don't think we will see a crash to 19, might see some higher values in early morning trade as markets open ect and settle down again.

 

[John Tempus]

Rand is pretty stable for the moment, I don't think we will see a crash to 19, might see some higher values in early morning trade as markets open ect and settle down again.

Thats very optimistic.

The Rand is on a oneway track towards R20. Every retracement ended up with higher peak afterwards in the last month. We might retrace down to lower R18.x but then the next spike up will come close to over R19, then repeat a retrace to low R19 or just below and then a new peak. Id even go so far to suggest we might touch or go over R19 today.

There is no other direction until the economy gets back to work and even then we will see another peak once we get latest figures for job losses due to the last month + whatever extra time this shitshow continues.

 

[Lupus]

Well it works do slightly different for my, while my PayPal account is dollars, I earn commission in pounds. If the pound tanks like it did two weeks or so ago, it costs a bit especially with the 2.5% PayPal currency conversion fee over and above the normal fees.

Rand is pretty stable for the moment, I don't think we will see a crash to 19, might see some higher values in early morning trade as markets open ect and settle down again.

Well seems we lost almost 20 cents already sigh.

 

[Gtx Gaming]

 

[MirageF1]

Well any plans I had about returning to live in UK mid year and sending whatever meagre Rands I had/have at R17-18 is now truly smashed.

Lost almost 30% to £ in last few weeks alone.

 

[genetic]

The rand reached a new all-time low against the US dollar on Thursday, as investors flocked to safe haven assets amid fears of a global recession caused by Covid-19, as well as the downgrade of South Africa's credit rating to "junk" by Moody's

The rand breached the R18/$ mark for the first time ever against the greenback in the early hours of Monday. And while the local unit initially seemed to hold off from weakening further, it plummeted on Wednesday after Wall Street lost more than 4% overnight. US president Donald Trump indicated that the death toll in the country would surge, Business Insider reported.

The rand is not the only emerging market currency feeling the heat. "The ZAR is not on its own and other emerging market currencies are also trading weaker. The ongoing worry about the Covid-19 pandemic and the extension of lockdowns in the US and the EU has market players very nervous," Wichard Cilliers of TreasuryONE told Fin24.

Bloodbath continues as plummeting rand weakens more than 2% | Business

The currency weakened more than 2% to R18.65/$ on Thursday.

www.fin24.com

 

[JayM]

Well any plans I had about returning to live in UK mid year and sending whatever meagre Rands I had/have at R17-18 is now truly smashed.

Lost almost 30% to £ in last few weeks alone.

When Brexit reality sets in towards the end of the year, £ should depreciate 20-30%. Might be a better time to buy then.

 

[wizardofid]

Thats very optimistic.

The Rand is on a oneway track towards R20. Every retracement ended up with higher peak afterwards in the last month. We might retrace down to lower R18.x but then the next spike up will come close to over R19, then repeat a retrace to low R19 or just below and then a new peak. Id even go so far to suggest we might touch or go over R19 today.

There is no other direction until the economy gets back to work and even then we will see another peak once we get latest figures for job losses due to the last month + whatever extra time this shitshow continues.

Oh well let's just hope for stability. Free fall would all but kills us.The only really good thing that can come out of this imports no longer cheaper in the short term. Unlikely that this increase will see local production improve, exports is going to be at and all time high. Definitely curious on the export/import front could really be a do or die.

 

[Speedster]

When Brexit reality sets in towards the end of the year, £ should depreciate 20-30%. Might be a better time to buy then.

Or the pound could appreciate? Coronavirus is once again highlighting many of the flaws in the EU.

 

[JayM]

Or the pound could appreciate? Coronavirus is once again highlighting many of the flaws in the EU.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Well, when your economy is shutdown, subject to the most severe restrictions anywhere in the world, no wonder. The economy was already in a weak position before the shutdown and now Cyril thought it was a wise idea to follow the "Wuhan" model.

Cyril has sent a bazooka into the heart of the economy and he probably thinks he can just switch it on again.

How naive.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

The EU is not going to come out better from this than the UK (probably the same). Anything less than a PMI of 50 represents a contraction.

Latest manufacturing numbers:

 

[wizardofid]

Well, when your economy is shutdown, subject to the most severe restrictions anywhere in the world, no wonder. The economy was already in a weak position before the shutdown and now Cyril thought it was a wise idea to follow the "Wuhan" model.

Cyril has sent a bazooka into the heart of the economy and he probably thinks he can just switch it on again.

How naive.

IDK we will have to wait and see.But honestly there was really no choice.It isn't like it this was an isolated indecent either, it is pretty much like this every where, the real test is to get it started again, which will be tricky. Full ramp up, versus phased in restart. Some sectors will be able to continue without intervention and some may not, the real trick would be to stimulate the needed sectors.It isn't like the economy is in complete shutdown either.There are sectors currently still in full/limited production as a result of essential services and such. I fully expect a slow restart with with low but steady increase in consumer buying power.

Yes there will be causalities it's unlikely we will see any major multinational corporations failing, the economy is diverse enough that any vacuum created will be reasonably filled unlikely to see catastrophic collapse of any sensitive sectors. Having part of the economy running then none at all, especially essential services should be more then enough to indirectly stimulate the rest again.The rate this happens at remains to be seen.

Seems you have a very pessimistic and doomsday attitude, economies are hardly that sensitive any more, if the 2008 global recession has shown us any thing it is recoverable even if you fkup.

 

[Lupus]

IDK we will have to wait and see.But honestly there was really no choice.It isn't like it this was an isolated indecent either, it is pretty much like this every where, the real test is to get it started again, which will be tricky. Full ramp up, versus phased in restart. Some sectors will be able to continue without intervention and some may not, the real trick would be to stimulate the needed sectors.It isn't like the economy is in complete shutdown either.There are sectors currently still in full/limited production as a result of essential services and such. I fully expect a slow restart with with low but steady increase in consumer buying power.

Yes there will be causalities it's unlikely we will see any major multinational corporations failing, the economy is diverse enough that any vacuum created will be reasonably filled unlikely to see catastrophic collapse of any sensitive sectors. Having part of the economy running then none at all, especially essential services should be more then enough to indirectly stimulate the rest again.The rate this happens at remains to be seen.

Seems you have a very pessimistic and doomsday attitude, economies are hardly that sensitive any more, if the 2008 global recession has shown us any thing it is recoverable even if you fkup.

Though the 2008 crash we were in a better space than this time around.

 

[JayM]

The EU is not going to come out better from this than the UK (probably the same). Anything less than a PMI of 50 represents a contraction.

Latest manufacturing numbers:

View attachment 811619

View attachment 811623

Sure the UK will come out around the same as the EU in terms of COVID-19, but a no deal Brexit (which they're heading straight for now) will definitely make things much worse.