The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[wizardofid]

Though the 2008 crash we were in a better space than this time around.

Well will have to wait and see IDK with the way things are going in the US, if their market dominance is given a death knell, which by the rate people are getting infected and some states not giving a F, might give the rest of the world a healthy boost.If I remember correctly a few years back we tried to deleverage our risk from the US dollar a bit.

I think it is quite complex and not as straight forward and simple.

 

[Lupus]

Well will have to wait and see IDK with the way things are going in the US, if their market dominance is given a death knell, which by the rate people are getting infected and some states not giving a F, might give the rest of the world a healthy boost.If I remember correctly a few years back we tried to deleverage our risk from the US dollar a bit.

I think it is quite complex and not as straight forward and simple.

This, I'm hoping there is a break as we need it. Somewhere.

 

[wizardofid]

This, I'm hoping there is a break as we need it. Somewhere.

Well consider this, the turning point will be what US does with regards to Chinese/US trade war.....

 

[Lupus]

Well consider this, the turning point will be what US does with regards to Chinese/US trade war.....

This is also a thing, that trade war affected us as well.

 

[wizardofid]

This is also a thing, that trade war affected us as well.

I think we reached a point of no return for the US, they can't shutdown their economy now,as Asian countries start considering/lifting lockdowns their economies will be in full swing, by the time US recovers, it will be far too late.
I think Europe will be weeks ahead of US as well.

I think the US is already fked, the US is weaker already and the end result is the rand not going into a freefall.But watch this space with regards to pound and euro, when they recover we will be smacked hard and fast.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

IDK we will have to wait and see.But honestly there was really no choice.It isn't like it this was an isolated indecent either, it is pretty much like this every where, the real test is to get it started again, which will be tricky. Full ramp up, versus phased in restart. Some sectors will be able to continue without intervention and some may not, the real trick would be to stimulate the needed sectors.It isn't like the economy is in complete shutdown either.There are sectors currently still in full/limited production as a result of essential services and such. I fully expect a slow restart with with low but steady increase in consumer buying power.

Yes there will be causalities it's unlikely we will see any major multinational corporations failing, the economy is diverse enough that any vacuum created will be reasonably filled unlikely to see catastrophic collapse of any sensitive sectors. Having part of the economy running then none at all, especially essential services should be more then enough to indirectly stimulate the rest again.The rate this happens at remains to be seen.

Seems you have a very pessimistic and doomsday attitude, economies are hardly that sensitive any more, if the 2008 global recession has shown us any thing it is recoverable even if you fkup.

Never in the history of the world have so many economies been shut simultaneously, and that includes the two World Wars. Policymakers are playing with fire. And SA doesn't have the fiscal freedom of US/EU to cushion the blow.

 

[Lupus]

Never in the history of the world have so many economies been shut simultaneously, and that includes the two World Wars. Policymakers are playing with fire. And SA doesn't have the fiscal freedom of US/EU to cushion the blow.

The thing was the economies weren't shut down during the wars, they were shifted, so more a wartime economy.

 

[krycor]

Never in the history of the world have so many economies been shut simultaneously, and that includes the two World Wars. Policymakers are playing with fire. And SA doesn't have the fiscal freedom of US/EU to cushion the blow.

Neither does the US for the 1st time.. Yes, they bought their way out now.. but the financial collapse hasn't happen yet.. i.e. the impending defaults on debt which need to be factored in. I suspect we gonna see their debt strangle them and they will have a choice.. people seem to expect a Japanification to happen without consequence but i'm not sure this is possible.

 

[wizardofid]

Never in the history of the world have so many economies been shut simultaneously, and that includes the two World Wars. Policymakers are playing with fire. And SA doesn't have the fiscal freedom of US/EU to cushion the blow.

Yeah but consider the size of the economies As lupus said...way, way different scenario, way, way different outcome, you not destroying infrastructure and resources dependent on recovery in this process, you still have them left to build on.

South Africa has a significantly smaller economy then the US, I pointed out the other day our economy GDP, about is the size of the entire online sales industry of the US.We have a LOT less to lose and gain.Smaller economies are going to do a lot better then most, will still be impacted, bit a LOT less.

 

[Brenden_E]

Yeah but consider the size of the economies As lupus said...way, way different scenario, way, way different outcome, you not destroying infrastructure and resources dependent on recovery in this process, you still have them left to build on.

South Africa has a significantly smaller economy then the US, I pointed out the other day our economy GDP, about is the size of the entire online sales industry of the US.We have a LOT less to lose and gain.Smaller economies are going to do a lot better then most, will still be impacted, bit a LOT less.

This is a weird viewpoint. If someone has only R500 and they lose R400, they are in deep poopoo compared to someone that has R5million and lost R3million.

 

[wizardofid]

This is a weird viewpoint. If someone has only R500 and they lose R400, they are in deep poopoo compared to someone that has R5million and lost R3million.

Then you need to consider living expenses and such. It is no doubt that the person with R3 million has considerable living expenses then the person with R100.00. including debts, bonds ect. No doubt those living below or just above poverty lines will be hit hard, but they have significantly less debt. It is basically people with some thing to lose and those with nothing to lose.In the bigger scheme of things who do you think will be better off. ?

I have no debt, bonds, credit cards,ect but limited cash flow, who is better off ? The same applies to national debt, the less you have when this blows over, the better you will be off in the long run.It isn't a necessarily weird viewpoint.
Those with less assets and living expenses will be screwed in the short term, but better of in the long term, those with more assets and higher living expenses, will be fine in the short term, but screwed in the long term.

 

[Brenden_E]

Then you need to consider living expenses and such. It is no doubt that the person with R3 million has considerable living expenses then the person with R100.00. including debts, bonds ect. No doubt those living below or just above poverty lines will be hit hard, but they have significantly less debt. It is basically people with some thing to lose and those with nothing to lose.In the bigger scheme of things who do you think will be better off. ?

I have no debt, bonds, credit cards,ect but limited cash flow, who is better off ? The same applies to national debt, the less you have when this blows over, the better you will be off in the long run.It isn't a necessarily weird viewpoint.
Those with less assets and living expenses will be screwed in the short term, but better of in the long term, those with more assets and higher living expenses, will be fine in the short term, but screwed in the long term.

Those with little are objectively worse off. Sucks not to buy that fancy car or some other luxury and perhaps even downgrade, but it sucks infinitely less than not being able to pay rent or eat at all.

I see what you are saying but I think your conclusion isn't accurate.

 

[Gtx Gaming]

Almost 19, then we can reach that magically 20!

 

[d0b33]

We're all expecting it to hit 20. Why is that? I think, if we're honest with ourselves we know it's the actual value of the Rand.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Just breached R19.

 

[Gtx Gaming]

Upward to 20 now!

 

[Herr der Verboten]

Upward to 20 now!

Tsjek jou naai

 

[FlashSA]

20 is a 30% jump. If it doesn't recover after this Lockdown, price of imported goods are going to skyrocket. Painful times!

 

[Vrotappel]

Neither does the US for the 1st time.. Yes, they bought their way out now.. but the financial collapse hasn't happen yet.. i.e. the impending defaults on debt which need to be factored in. I suspect we gonna see their debt strangle them and they will have a choice.. people seem to expect a Japanification to happen without consequence but i'm not sure this is possible.

US debt is mostly owed to the US. They have the assets to cushion many blows.

 

[JayM]

Tightened exchange controls coming...