The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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What are we reckoning for the R/$ going forward? I'm thinking about starting to save in Dollars to protect against hyperinflation as things worsen in SA. Wish I had started a year ago but too late to cry now.

I'm thinking about opening an FNB Global Account - anyone got any better low/no fee option to start saving into?
 
FlashSA said:
What are we reckoning for the R/$ going forward? I'm thinking about starting to save in Dollars to protect against hyperinflation as things worsen in SA. Wish I had started a year ago but too late to cry now.

I'm thinking about opening an FNB Global Account - anyone got any better low/no fee option to start saving into?
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The boat has already sailed. Unless you invest in stocks as well it's a losing scenario.
 
FlashSA said:
What are we reckoning for the R/$ going forward? I'm thinking about starting to save in Dollars to protect against hyperinflation as things worsen in SA. Wish I had started a year ago but too late to cry now.

I'm thinking about opening an FNB Global Account - anyone got any better low/no fee option to start saving into?
Click to expand...

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Well ANC went and messed that up, it's rising again.
 
Heading back to 19 thanks to Squirrel I'm sure.
 
Considering our useless planning as to when we will get rid of all lock down phases and back to normal it would take an idiot to keep their investment in SA.

How can any big investor in pretty much any company in SA keep their money here when they have no clue where their investment might be heading.

I suspect as soon as the numbers come out we will see a MASSIVE exodus of investment in these lock down months coinciding with companies going bankrupt.
 
John Tempus said:
Considering our useless planning as to when we will get rid of all lock down phases and back to normal it would take an idiot to keep their investment in SA.

How can any big investor in pretty much any company in SA keep their money here when they have no clue where their investment might be heading.

I suspect as soon as the numbers come out we will see a MASSIVE exodus of investment in these lock down months coinciding with companies going bankrupt.
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How can any company keep their money in SA in general with our lack of policy directive? It's a surprise it took a pandemic to get us where we are.
 
Covid-19 budget in June is going to be interesting.

Good news: ZAR will strengthen.
Bad news: Because of capital controls.
 
I suspect it will strengthen longer term.. not because our country is awesome but because we at the bottom.

US is for a lot of kak.. they sitting on +\-$25T debt and just approved another $3T for relief which is not coming from GDP while try and open up economy and oil markets dying.

Yah house Lanister gonna get called in on debt by China..
 
Argentina thought they were at the bottom in 2015 when USD/ARS was at 9. It's at 68 now. If the ANC continues on their current path of driving away investment, I don't see any other outcome but long term weakening.
 
JayM said:
Argentina thought they were at the bottom in 2015 when USD/ARS was at 9. It's at 68 now. If the ANC continues on their current path of driving away investment, I don't see any other outcome but long term weakening.
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Argentina was printing money. Zimbabwe was printing money. Almost all countries that go through hyperinflation is because they printed money so as long as we don't go that route we are at the bottom.
 
Swa said:
Argentina was printing money. Zimbabwe was printing money. Almost all countries that go through hyperinflation is because they printed money so as long as we don't go that route we are at the bottom.
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I disagree. ZAR has been buoyed by inward capital flows (mostly FDI) which have now largely dried up. Government policy is not conducive to attracting investment, and our underlying issues (corruption, EWC, Eskom, unemployment, brain drain) aren't going away anytime soon.
 
JayM said:
I disagree. ZAR has been buoyed by inward capital flows (mostly FDI) which have now largely dried up. Government policy is not conducive to attracting investment, and our underlying issues (corruption, EWC, Eskom, unemployment, brain drain) aren't going away anytime soon.
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It's +50% undervalued already. Only thing that would justify a weaker Rand is inflation.

BBSA said:
So where did the money come to buy the billions of government bonds?

TIP: they did not use their savings ;)
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You know they have reserve funds? They actually do print money from time to time, as does all reserve banks.
 
Swa said:
You know they have reserve funds? They actually do print money from time to time, as does all reserve banks.
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Yes, I know they have reserved. Are you saying they used their reserves to buy the bonds?

So what is the difference between Argentina money printing and the printing by all other central banks? They all debase their currency, right?
 
BBSA said:
Yes, I know they have reserved. Are you saying they used their reserves to buy the bonds?

So what is the difference between Argentina money printing and the printing by all other central banks? They all debase their currency, right?
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Well you're supposed to keep up with population growth and average inflation figures. But we know at what rate Argentina and Zimbabwe started printing money to try and solve their problems.
 
BBSA said:
Yes, I know they have reserved. Are you saying they used their reserves to buy the bonds?

So what is the difference between Argentina money printing and the printing by all other central banks? They all debase their currency, right?
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All countries print money but printing money affects all countries differently.

USA prints trillions because other nations trust in their long term prospect of generating GDP growth so it does not directly affect the US$ immediately however if after 10/15 years of printing the USA shows a continuing downward spiral then trust will drop and future printing will cause hyperinflation similar to Argentina,Venezuela,Zimbabwe etc.

Now back to home soil, if we start to let the printers run wild we will get screwed with hyperinflation very quickly because we have a continual drop in GDP, rise in unemployment , negative outlook and printing more money will just inflate a market that is already not capable of spending due to financial constraints.

In short, if a nation does not produce any actual products to offset against their printing then the printing of money does nothing more than create short term illusion that you are better off but mid to long term the fact nothing gets produced will kick in quickly.
 
BBSA said:
So where did the money come to buy the billions of government bonds?

TIP: they did not use their savings ;)
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Might not believe it but our gov is doing most of their buying on IOU's. Our government is basically that one guy at the poker table that wants to keep on gambling but always have to reach around the table borrowing money that he promises to pay back from his winning session end of day but that day never comes and the IOU's just keep building up.

You don't need to print money if you buy based on thumb sucking future earnings. The printing of money is something USA is doing on top of government guarantees. Right now it looks like we are thankfully only in "government guarantees" territory for now.

Any sensible person should be worried when a government balance their books way less effectively than a casino balancing their daily books.
 
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