The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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DOLLAR EXTENDS GAINS IN ASIA

The dollar extended its gains in Asia Tuesday, hovering around a six-year high against the yen, while the British pound struggled to recover from a sell-off fuelled by fears of Scottish independence.

The dollar bought 106.23 yen in afternoon Tokyo trading, compared with 106.03 yen in New York Monday afternoon, soaring to its highest levels since during the global financial crisis.

The euro slipped to $1.2878 against $1.2895, while it inched higher to 136.82 yen and 136.72 yen.

Weak Japanese GDP data has boosted speculation that the Bank of Japan will be forced to launch further easing measures -- weakening the yen --at its October meeting. Policymakers held fire at last week's gathering.

"I think we should conclude that the dollar-yen rate is breaking above 105 in a sign that suggests the market is factoring in expectations for further monetary easing on the Japanese side," said SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Chotaro Morita.

The euro was also under pressure after the European Central Bank last week announced a fresh interest rate cut and easing measures, with the US central bank heading in the opposite direction by scaling back its stimulus as it looks to raise interest rates.

John Kicklighter, chief currency strategist at DailyFX, said the greenback's latest rise was "less to the dollar's own intrinsic merits and more to the exceptional weakness of its counterparts".

In response to the dollar creeping above the 106 yen level, Japanese economy minister Akira Amari warned that "big fluctuations (in currency markets) aren't good for the global economy".

But when asked about the dollar-yen rate, he refused to comment directly.

The pound was stuck at a 10-month low against the dollar after tumbling on Monday in response to a survey that showed for the first time more people in Scotland could vote for independence from the United Kingdom than against.

The British pound bought $1.6078, well down from $1.6323 on Friday before the survey. The news has given a jolt to investors who had not envisaged a victory for the "Yes" campaign and so had not priced in the effects of a break-up of the UK.

The dollar was also higher against other Asia-Pacific currencies.

It went up to Sg$1.2611 from Sg$1.2541 on Monday, to 32.09 Thai baht from 31.99 baht, to 1,031.59 South Korean won from 1,023.78 won and to 43.73 Philippine pesos from 43.55 pesos.

The dollar also firmed to Tw$29.94 from Tw$29.91, to 60.43 Indian rupees from 60.20 rupees and to 11,769.00 Indonesian rupiah from 11,711.90 rupiah.

The Australian dollar sank to 92.59 US cents from 93.67 cents while the Chinese yuan rose to 17.29 yen from 17.10 yen.


Source : Sapa-AFP /kn
Date : 09 Sep 2014 08:00
 
I put ultimate resistance at 11.085.

usdzar.PNG


Let's hope it slows a little before then :/ (doesn't look like it at the moment though)
 
High for today thus far R10.9865

Scratch that, just topped out at R10.9996, a whisker short of R11.00. Expecting a bit of a pullback before it heads for the R11.30 level.

Guess that new iPhone is going to cost a little more. Also, think we can forget about seeing another decrease at the petrol pumps for at least the next three months and also expect that basket of groceries to go up just that bit more over the next couple of months.

Said it a while back, stock markets are topping out and we are due for a big correction and that will push the dollar even higher. Personally think we will be lucky if we stay below R11.50 up to the end of the year.
 
wtf is up with the rand

Its not just the Rand. Most currencies have taken a bit of a beating against the dollar over the past week. Problem for us though is that the Rand was weak to start with. The Australian dollar for example has also taken a bit of a beating but in a way its good for them as the Australian dollar was to strong for their liking so the dip was good for them. For us however it is everything but good news.
 
DOLLAR HOLDS GAINS IN ASIA

The dollar was steady in Asia Thursday after hitting a six-year high against the yen, while the pound recovered on Bank of England rate hike hints and easing concerns about Scotland's independence vote.

In midday Tokyo trading, the dollar bought 106.74 yen, slightly down from 106.85 yen in New York, its highest levels since the global financial crisis in 2008.

The euro dipped to $1.2914 and 137.85 yen from $1.2916 and 138.02 yen in New York.

Dealers said the dollar could soon test the 107-yen level on the back of higher US Treasury yields and as the US Federal Reserve winds down its stimulus.

As speculation builds that the Fed will raise rates sooner than later, the divergence between the monetary policies of the US and those of Japan and Europe -- both of which are expected to ease further -- have been lifting the dollar against the euro and yen.

"There's no doubt that the dollar-yen rate will test 107," said Atsushi Hirano, head of forex sales Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland.

But Kengo Suzuki, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities, warned its rapid ascent was "one-sided and overheated", telling Dow Jones Newsires: "We can expect an adjustment waiting to happen."

"I get an impression the market is trying to test how far (the dollar-yen rate) can reach."

Traders will be keeping a close eye on developments tied to a meeting Thursday between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

In other trading, the pound ticked up to $1.6204, well up from a 10-month low of $1.6078 earlier this week.

The unit sank in response to an opinion poll on the upcoming Scottish independence referendum showing for the first time a majority of people in favour of leaving the United Kingdom.

However, a new survey showed that opposition to the independence campaign had restored its lead, soothing concerns about the economic impact of Britain fragmenting.

Adding upside support were comments from Bank of England chief Mark Carney suggesting it could lift interest rates soon as soon as early 2015, citing the country's solid economic recovery.

"You can expect interest rates to begin to increase," Carney said, adding that the bank's forecasts show that hiking rates by the spring of 2015 would allow it to meet its jobs growth and inflation targets.


Source : Sapa-AFP /kn
Date : 11 Sep 2014 06:45
 
DOLLAR SOARS AGAINST YEN IN ASIA

The dollar soared to a fresh six-year high in Asia on Thursday, while the pound recovered on easing concerns about Scotland's independence vote and hints of a Bank of England rate hike.

In afternoon Tokyo trading, the greenback fetched 106.95 yen, after briefly shooting past the 107 yen level, marking its highest point since September 2008 during the global financial crisis, and up from 106.85 yen in New York.

The euro was mixed, buying $1.2906 and 138.08 yen from $1.2916 and 138.02 yen in US trade.

The yen's sustained weakness came as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met Thursday afternoon with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who repeated a pledge to expand monetary easing measures, if necessary, as the bank looks to reach 2.0 percent inflation by next year.

That target is a key part of Tokyo's bid to conquer the deflation that weighed on Japan's economy for years.

"If we face difficulty achieving the (inflation) goal, we would adjust monetary policy without hesitation, even if it takes the form of additional easing or anything else," Kuroda told reporters.

As speculation builds that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than later, the divergence between the monetary policies of the US and those of Japan and Europe -- both of which are expected to ease further -- have been lifting the dollar against the euro and yen.

Deutsche Bank said the dollar-yen rate was on course to pass the 110 level as the US economy recovers and the Federal Reserve tapers its stimulus programme.

But Kengo Suzuki, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities, warned that the rapid ascent was "one-sided and overheated", telling Dow Jones Newsires: "We can expect an adjustment waiting to happen."

"I get the impression that the market is trying to test how far (the dollar-yen rate) can reach."

The pound rose to $1.6201, well up from a 10-month low of $1.6078 earlier this week, after a new survey showed that opposition to the Scottish independence campaign had restored its lead, soothing concerns about the economic impact of Britain fragmenting.

Comments from Bank of England chief Mark Carney suggesting it could lift interest rates as soon as early 2015 also boosted the British unit.

The dollar was mixed against other Asia-Pacific currencies.

It strengthened to 1,036.00 South Korean won from 1,035.10 won, to 60.88 Indian rupees from 60.78 rupees, to 11,838.00 Indonesian rupiah from 11,795.00 rupiah, and Tw$29.99 from Tw$29.98.

The dollar weakened to Sg$1.2632 from Sg$1.2647, to 32.12 Thai baht from 32.15 baht, and to 43.91 Philippine pesos from 43.92 pesos.

The Australian dollar rose to 91.66 US cents from 91.63 US cents.

The Chinese yuan rose to 17.44 yen from 17.33 yen.


Source : Sapa-AFP /avb
Date : 11 Sep 2014 09:40
 
....Expecting a bit of a pullback before it heads for the R11.30 level

Started duping Dollars today at R11.15. Next large batch of Rand buy orders set on R11.20 (missed by a whisker earlier today) and balance of orders set at R11.25/28. Expeting a high of around R11.30/35 before a dip back to the R10.75/60 levels.
 
Started duping Dollars today at R11.15. Next large batch of Rand buy orders set on R11.20 (missed by a whisker earlier today) and balance of orders set at R11.25/28. Expeting a high of around R11.30/35 before a dip back to the R10.75/60 levels.

All Rand buy orders were executed with an average on R11.23. Stops brought down to R11.10 for a healthy profit. Expecting the Rand to pierce the R11.00 level and will close out all orders if it does and get back into dollars.

Initially expected it to go all the way to around R10.75 but don't think it will go that low now. Maybe R10.90 but expecting a bounce anytime now back to around R11.10. Should go to around R10.60 area longer term but will have to wait and see.

Edit: Closed all out on R11.02.
 
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