LazyLion
King of de Jungle
R10.56 to the Dollar.
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The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread
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I have no idea as I do not really follow the EUR/ZAR and even if so I would still have no idea as I'm not really bothered with the longer term fundamentals. I'm more focused on the daily activity i.e. the here and now and what will be taking place over the next couple of hours.
So in short, I have no idea. I would however recommend that you do hedge the Rand i.e. put some money in another currency if you can. Whether one should do so now....I won't. I will wait for the Rand to get back to the low R10.xx area before moving any funds.
Gold seems to be busy breaking out from its ranges and I expect some new highs to be made over the next couple of months as more investors starts piling into gold due to the current instability in the middle east/Asia and also due to the stock markets hitting high after high. The wise investors are already taking profits i.e. getting out and placing their profits in the next safest place i.e. gold.
With the surge in gold I expect the Rand to strengthen somewhat and that might be the ideal time to buy up some pounds, euro's and dollars. The question however is whether the Rand will find support from the stronger gold price. There is currently so much weighing against the Rand that it seems to have feet of concrete. News that's supposed to give the currency a boost does sweet nothing. Almost as if the world have lost complete interest in the Rand, that is unless there is a good opportunity to speculate.
The main thing with currencies is that you should not try and attempt to move a lot at once but to buy in over time so that you get a better average price. I personally have my main account in pounds and my brokerage accounts in US$ and AUS$. Additional to this I also have a multi-currency account with HSBC where I have EUR, CHF and Yen. I must admit that these are actually more for business purposes than actual hedges.
Also remember, one often tend to end up losing out while trying to beat every little bump in the road i.e. moving funds from one currency to the other in order to try and gain some profits. The conversion fees are sometimes high and eat up most of your gains unless they are of course sizable and you are moving large amounts of money. Other than that it is usually best to just sit it out. The aim of a hedging strategy is not to gain profits but, as the name implies, to hedge yourself against a currency going tits up i.e. Zim Dollar. Any gains realized while hedging is a bonus.
Very nice explanation. Thanks for sharing.
Think I'll have a look at gold...
Most analysts seem to be bearish on gold still.
I wouldn't know myself so I'm not arguing with MKFrost who clearly understands these issues better than me - I just started reading a bit after I saw his post...
Yes they are but mostly due to the stock markets hitting the one high after the other. Give it time, the writing has been on the wall for a while now and we are long overdue for a rather large correction. Gold should get back some of its luster once we start entering that correction and once it gains some momentum.
Gold is used by many as a safe haven where they park their excess cash. Gold as a commodity is relatively stable when compared to other commodities and markets. It will bounce around and you will make and or lose the odd 10 to 20% over time but you know the bottom will not fall out which is more than you can say for almost any other market.
You will see the gold price surge ahead in times like now where things just ain't as they should be and times where there is so much uncertainty. As people get out at the highs they need to do something with their money and often gold is the one place to go park it so give it time.
I bought in quite a bit during April and May for an average entry of 1,288 and am looking for around 1,460 as a first point and 1,550 for a second. Also, on the downside have some more pending buy orders at 1,180 and 980 should we go further down.
Rand only got as far as R10.57 on the 30th of June but has since turned back north. Currently trading at R10.75.
Level to keep an eye on is the R10.83 area. If that gives then R11.00 is right around the corner.
Lol.
Long day at the office?
Sitting with a bunch of dollars I need to bring back. Been watching and waiting to see whether we break R10.83/4 area before hitting the transfer button. Think I will hold off a bit, looks like R11.00 might be on the cards. If so then R11.30 should be a short bump away.
LazyLion
King of de Jungle
Rand seems to be weakening slightly on news of a 0.25% Interest Rate Increase.
There comes the effect of the raise in rates now. Broke some good support points, lets see if the Rand can hold onto these gains. Hopefully nobody in government has anything to say before the day is out.
+1.
It would have been good in my opinion, to have perhaps raised the interest rate by another 1/8th of a point.
Seems the rate hike did not do much to support the Rand. Dipped to as low as R10.64 where it just turned and steamed all the way back to R10.72. Weekly low is at R10.75 so looks like it might make a new low for the week before the day is done.
Forgot about that one. I don't think we will go that high this time round. I'm more inclined to think that we will move lower BUT, and this is a big but, this is based on correlation with the expected direction other currencies and especially the dollar should be taking. But as I said before, correlations between currencies means very little.
EDIT: My money is on hitting the R10.45 area. Sold off at R10.81 a while back and will be buying in again from around the R10.40/45 area.
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Not quite there yet but moved my Rands back to Dollars at R10.506. Will wait to see whether the Rand can break through that area but I doubt it. Think it might weaken again to around R10.65/70.
LazyLion
King of de Jungle
We just bought $8000 at R10.5345
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