The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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MKFrost said:
If it break through the R10.60 area it should head for around R10.70/80 in the short term.
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Eventually make it to just shy of the R10.70 level. Currently trading at R10.58 and I expect that we will be heading to the R10.30 area from here. That's if we can get a proper break of the R10.50 level. If not then expect a bounce back up to around R10.80.
 
MKFrost said:
Eventually make it to just shy of the R10.70 level. Currently trading at R10.58 and I expect that we will be heading to the R10.30 area from here. That's if we can get a proper break of the R10.50 level. If not then expect a bounce back up to around R10.80.
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Did not quite make it. Managed to dip as low as R10.45 yesterday but could not manage to hold onto the gains made and moved back above R10.50, again. Presently trading at R10.512.

US Non-farm payroll data coming out at 14:30 today and I'm expecting some big movements today. From the looks of things it might just be what the Rand needs to push it well below R10.50 but then again, chances are also there that it can push it back into the higher R10 levels, all depends on the figures being released and whether its Dollar positive or not.
 
Not sure if anybody noticed, with the elections and all. Rand makea sharp break this morning. Dropped from R10.45 all the way down to R10.35. That is a massive drop is such a short time.
 
MKFrost said:
Not sure if anybody noticed, with the elections and all. Rand makea sharp break this morning. Dropped from R10.45 all the way down to R10.35. That is a massive drop is such a short time.
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Perceived free and fair elections restoring confidence maybe.
 
ToxicBunny said:
I want to see what happens when the final results come in...

I think the ANC losing a few percentage points will be seen as a good thing.
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Could yes. But will be short lived sentiment I am sure as the reality of ANC rule hits home again.
 
Mainly because money is looking even worse in the USA and Europe. The top 5 banks in the USA have a derivatives exposure of nearly $300 trillion. Yes trillion.
 
MKFrost said:
I think much sooner, to much fuel in that rocket on this last leg up.
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Where do you run to with your investments then? Property is dead. Gold is dead. Stockmarket locally is getting risky. Do you just take as much out of the country as you can manage?
 
Messugga said:
Where do you run to with your investments then? Property is dead. Gold is dead. Stockmarket locally is getting risky. Do you just take as much out of the country as you can manage?
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Not sure what others do but I stay as far away from the stock markets as possible. I hardly have any investments except for the few where funds where put away for the long term and those are all in stable funds which grow at just above inflation so no fireworks there but also no risk.

Rest of my funds are in a normal bank account where it only gets 1.5% a year but its linked to my trading accounts so the real return depends on my profitability with trading.

EDIT: Forgot to mention, property is still a good investment, especially when the market is dead. I'm however on the side lines until later this year to early next before I will venture into local property again. Think the market will still dip a bit towards the end of the year if we do get another increase or two in rates.
 
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Messugga said:
To the point that I'm getting quite nervous about it. How long until that bubble bursts? Economists recon 18-24 months, last I heard.
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Why does a crash make you nervous? It just gives an opportunity to buy more. Don't sell. Just buy more. (Within reason of course).
 
MKFrost said:
EDIT: Forgot to mention, property is still a good investment, especially when the market is dead. I'm however on the side lines until later this year to early next before I will venture into local property again. Think the market will still dip a bit towards the end of the year if we do get another increase or two in rates.
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What type of property?

So, probability of higher rates of 1% by year end by your estimate?

Given that, everything should be up by Christmas including whatever market. -> my thumbsuck.
 
chicken247 said:
What type of property?

So, probability of higher rates of 1% by year end by your estimate?

Given that, everything should be up by Christmas including whatever market. -> my thumbsuck.
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Any property really IF you can buy it at a good price meaning under market value if possible. Most estate agents I speak to say that the time to buy have almost passed as properties are already starting to show increases in value but I personally believe that we are not out of the crunch yet.

There are still hundreds if not thousands of people who are 'under water' on their bonds and those properties will eventually come onto the market at a 'proper' price as they will be forced/need to sell, especially so if we see another one or two hikes of 0.5%.

Most of the properties I've viewed over the past three months are way overvalued. I do not mind paying for a property but some people need to have their heads read when it comes to their selling prices.

EDIT: Sorry missed your question on interest rates. Personally I think one more hike of 0.5% in the last quarter. The country's growth rate is to low to absorb another two hikes. Unless inflation really gets out of hand i.e. go way past the top target I doubt whether we will see 2 hikes. If the growth rate dips more, which is a strong possibility then we might not see another hike, but again, depends on inflation.
 
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