XennoX
Expert Member
So in other words a liberal society? Fat chance of that happening here with our socialist parties.
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The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread
- Thread starter Robin Hood
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So in other words a liberal society? Fat chance of that happening here with our socialist parties.
May I ask if that is your opinion or if you actually have a reason for this estimate?
What you have said here is what is called supply and demand.
USDZAR: 10.4320 atm
Like I said willing buyer, willing seller.
And those are derived..... by/through having a look at fundamentals.
Ie. willing buyers for ZIM$ were not readily found as the ZIM$ was too high risk for the price being asked.
Rand has been trading in a narrow band for most of the day, presently at R10.45.
Expect some bigger movements this evening at 20H00 when the FOMC minutes are read in the USA. Usually provides for some decent volatility and might just be what the Rand needs to break R10.40 should the sentiment in the minutes be Dollar negative.
Expect some bigger movements this evening at 20H00 when the FOMC minutes are read in the USA. Usually provides for some decent volatility and might just be what the Rand needs to break R10.40 should the sentiment in the minutes be Dollar negative.
Is the expectation that the news will be $ negative?
Have no idea. I never read the news and or the predictions. Just take note of the times it comes out and follow the market where it goes once the news has been released.
Main reason for this being that one can never be sure of what reaction to expect. For half it will be good news and for the other half bad news so there is usually buying and selling in equal measure until one of the sides 'overpower' the other. So I always wait for them to knock the living daylights out of each other and then try and follow the winner. Much easier than trying to predict the outcome of a news event.
And that it did. Dipped down to R10.36.Currently at R10.39. Expecting a bit of a pullback here towards R10.50/60. If those resistance levels can hold we should head a bit lower towards R10.20 and even possibly R10.10. Not too sure though, wife took my crystal ball for her fortune telling sideline business.
Saw the USD lose some ground. ZAR sitting pretty at 10.4025.... wish it could sit at 10.3900 rather
Saw the USD lose some ground. ZAR sitting pretty at 10.4025.... wish it could sit at 10.3900 rather
Think we will be heading back to R10.50 later. Big news in UK coming out in around 50 minutes and also some employment data this afternoon from the US. Dollar seems to be picking up a bit and finding support thus my reasoning for the R10.50 area. Can do with it back at R11 momentarily, have some funds that needs to come in sometime this month.
Early morning for me, off to the airport. See the Rand managed to get to R10.49 earlier this morning. If I'm reading this right we should be heading back down again from here towards R10.20. R10.40 is however a rather strong support level and that needs to 'give way' before we will get anywhere near R10.20.
If I'm not reading this right then expect R10.60 and possibly just shy of R10.70.
supersunbird
Honorary Master
What are these technical levels they sometimes talk about? Heard on radio: "the rand passed the technical level of R10.50 to the dollar and is expected to pass the technical level of R10.41 to the dollar soon". I have a feeling any number is a technical level lol.
Price never moves in a direct line, its always a kind of one step forward three steps back type of thing. When it does this it creates turning points i.e. where it turned around.
These turning points are also referred to as support and resistance levels. Support is essentially a place/level on the chart where price, when it falls, will stop i.e. it finds support. Same with resistance, this is a place/level where price, while it is rising, will stop and turn i.e. it encounters resistance.
Most of these levels consists of previous daily/weekly/monthly/yearly highs and lows and or what they call psychological levels like the round numbers R10.00, R11.00 etc.. So most levels are based on what happened in the past and because of this traders expect the same kind of thing to happen again when price reaches one of these historical levels.
Over time some levels start to carry more 'weight', so to speak, and traders focus more on them as they become a kind of self fulfilling prophecy. Many believe price will turn at a certain point and thus trade accordingly and because many do they are actually forcing price to do what they expect it to do.
Additional to the levels mentioned, you also get technical levels. There are levels that are identified through technical analysis i.e. when you start drawing lines on your chart and measuring previous movements etc..
These are the kind of levels like for example Fibonacci levels. If you look at most charts you will see that price often rallies strongly in a certain direction and then makes a correction. If you go measure these corrections you will find that the distance/length of the correction, as a percentage of the initial rally, is usually either 23, 38 or the golden number 61%. Price tend to bounce on these levels and continue its move back in the direction of the initial rally.
So all this talk of levels and such is just another way to refer to certain areas on a chart where either price reacted previously and traders thus expect it to do the same and or levels identified through technical analysis which is also just areas where traders expect something of significance to happen.
Below is an example of a correction/retrace and how one would identify possible technical levels. The green arrow shows the initial rally. Price then encounter resistance and falls back [red arrow] - this is the correction. As said, we expect such a correction to go to either 23%, 38% or 61% etc. On the chart you can see the red squares indicating the 38% and 61% areas. At the 38% area price bounced but then continued to fall down to the 61% area where it bounced but this time it resumed the trend i.e. blue arrow.
The 23, 38 and 61% areas is what is called technical levels as we expect price to do something at these areas. These are the areas where traders usually either enter trades and or close existing trades.
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Seems the market is expecting worse CPI figures out of SA today. News due in around 45 minutes and Rand already dipping. Was at a low of R10.52 this morning and currently trading at R10.59 and seems like we will cross R10.60 any minute now.
If it break through the R10.60 area it should head for around R10.70/80 in the short term.
If it break through the R10.60 area it should head for around R10.70/80 in the short term.
10.62 atm....
Drifter
Honorary Master
ZAR and Paypal. Paid R18.42 for 1 GBP ordering goods from UK. OUCH!!!
Eina. It is Trading at around 17.80 atm.
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