The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[chicken247]

There are still hundreds if not thousands of people who are 'under water' on their bonds and those properties will eventually come onto the market at a 'proper' price as they will be forced/need to sell, especially so if we see another one or two hikes of 0.5%.

Most of the properties I've viewed over the past three months are way overvalued. I do not mind paying for a property but some people need to have their heads read when it comes to their selling prices.

.

Yes i agree, had a look at my local municipality property valuation roll and even that seems a bit off if you compare it to what the census data says local people earn. I mean, only about 3-4% are graduates (maybe without jobs!) yet every seller wants a million. Not even half of the people completed primary school and 40% dont have jobs but he wants his loot! , overcapitalization

Edit: Oh , ok, about 1% earn more than R 614 000- and they are doing the majority of the speculative buying and selling between themselves, that is where the turnover comes from. Stats!

 

[LazyLion]

SA ECONOMY SLOWS TO A CRAWL

BankservAfrica's Economic Transaction Index (BETI) shows that annual growth slowed to only 0.2 percent last month, the electronic payments transaction company said on Wednesday.

BankservAfrica's regulated products CEO Brad Gillis said not even the pre-election spending of political parties could put momentum back into the economy.

"The 0.2 percent year-on-year growth in April 2014 shows one of the smallest changes in economic activity over the last year," he said.

"On top of that, five of the last eight months indicated a month-on-month decline and only three, including April, showed an increase."

Chief economist for economists.co.za Mike Schussler said political parties only spent on a massive scale once every five years and some of this spend could show in the April figures.

He said May or June could show more subdued economic activity due to the backlash of extended strikes.

"In the past, the effect of a strike was mostly felt a month or two after the strike ended. On top of this, the economy is running the risk of negative growth as a result of high consumer debt levels and the inability of the economy to create new jobs."

Schussler said businesses struggled with the pace of economic change.

On an international front, the South African economy would feel the effects of the recent lowering of growth figures for most countries by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

"It seems the whole economy is caught between strikes and slow international growth," he said.

Gillis said although the BETI took public holidays into consideration, they alone could not be used as an explanation because businesses no longer closed shop on these days.


Source : Sapa /je/jk/jje/th
Date : 14 May 2014 12:15

 

[Devill]

ZAR at around 10.3450 atm

 

[MKFrost]

Both business confidence and retail sales figures were negative adding to the Rand's woes today.

 

[Garson007]

Both business confidence and retail sales figures were negative adding to the Rand's woes today.

I wouldn't call it woes. The Rand has come close to beating a three year trend lately.

 

[LazyLion]

But what on earth is driving this investor confidence?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/stock-market

 

[MKFrost]

I wouldn't call it woes. The Rand has come close to beating a three year trend lately.

Just meant the woes for today. First the growth figures showing that as a country we are going nowhere slowly followed by the drop in the business confidence figures and added on top of that the decline in the retail figures.

See the Rand has clawed its way back again. Just broke below R10.30 again. Currently sitting at R10.2990.

 

[LazyLion]

And the JSE sets new records today.....
https://www.google.com/finance?q=JSE

 

[genetic]

And the JSE sets new records today.....
https://www.google.com/finance?q=JSE

The higher you climb, the harder you fall.

 

[Messugga]

The higher you climb, the harder you fall.

Have started putting some cash aside, along with my regular STX40 investment, specifically for when this goes down. Can hopefully pick up something for cheap and if it doesn't go down (which it will...) then at least I have a deposit for my next property.

 

[Garson007]

Have started putting some cash aside, along with my regular STX40 investment, specifically for when this goes down. Can hopefully pick up something for cheap and if it doesn't go down (which it will...) then at least I have a deposit for my next property.

Too much speculation for me. Just pump in a set amount every month and forget about it, imho.

 

[Messugga]

Too much speculation for me. Just pump in a set amount every month and forget about it, imho.

That's what I'm doing. I'm just keeping and extra amount of cash on the side so that I can pounce if the opportunity arises.

 

[LazyLion]

REPO RATE UNCHANGED

The repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.5 percent, the SA Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee decided on Thursday.

Inflation is currently at "uncomfortable levels", SARB governor Gill Marcus said in Pretoria, announcing the decision of the monetary policy committee (MPC).

In January, the committee increased the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent and in March the repo rate remained unchanged.


Source : Sapa /dm/hdw
Date : 22 May 2014 15:22

 

[MKFrost]

Been out of the markets for the past two weeks but back in it as from this morning. ZAR does not look good from what I can see. Not sure about possible targets, will have a bit more of a detailed look later, but seems like we might be heading back up towards the R11 area.

Guess Dollar strength/weakness this week will be the driving factor and that will largely depend on the performance of the American stock markets.

 

[MKFrost]

....ZAR does not look good from what I can see. Not sure about possible targets, will have a bit more of a detailed look later, but seems like we might be heading back up towards the R11 area....

Broke through R10.70 today. Bad news for next months petrol price. Things do not look to good from what I can see. We had quite a number of negative news events in regards to the local economy which just added fuel to the fire. Friday is Non-Farm payrolls (i.e. employment data) in the USA which is usually a catalyst for the start of a new trend and or pushing existing trends even further.

Not sure where the Rand will be heading but from what I can see my best guess for the short term will be R10.90 to R11.20 area and on the longer term possibly as far as R12.10 which will take us just past the low of R11.84 made in Aug 2010.

Let's hope the R11.00 area gives the Rand a kick in the teeth which will hopefully bounce it back towards the R10.00 area.

 

[MKFrost]

R10.82 currently from a low of R10.71 earlier today.

CPI figures in the US higher than expected which might result in possible rate hikes in the future. Gave the Dollar a big boost and most currencies took a knock as a result.

 

[bgotapen]

Every time malema opens his fat fing mouth the rand weakens.

 

[reactor_sa]

Every time malema opens his fat fing mouth the rand weakens.

And the anc.

 

[genetic]

Every time malema opens his fat fing mouth the rand weakens.

:erm:

 

[MKFrost]

Rand made a new low a bit earlier. Topped out at R10.86. Seems like it will recover a bit now but not sure for how long and by how much.

SA inflation figures due out today, think at around 10 this morning and then we also have the FOMC meeting tonight at 8 our time when they announce any interest rate adjustments in the USA. Doubt that there will be any adjustment but I'm expecting some comments hinting at a possible rate hike in the future due to their rising inflation figures. If this is the case it should give the dollar a boost which might send the Rand all the way to the R11.00 region.