The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Knyro said:
MyBBers only care when the exchange rate gets worse so that they can shout about how the sky is falling :p
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Remember when the Rand was 8 or even 7 to the Dollar. 12 plus or minus a few cents either way is not a win.
 
Space_Chief said:
Remember when the Rand was 8 or even 7 to the Dollar. 12 plus or minus a few cents either way is not a win.
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I never said it was but it's still a significant improvement from a week ago and worth mentioning.
 
At least there is Euro stability, which should be good for the WC
 
Thor187 said:
Please explain this logic because I highly disagree. Like highly.

And please keep it relevant to South Africa
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Well, that's quite a long topic, but in a nutshell :
South Africa cannot continue as a consumption economy, which a strong Rand supports. The effects will build to a catastrophic result. (Our twin peaks are already of major concern)
A weaker Rand (Both Dollar and Euro) and greater stability is needed to become an exporting economy. And it needs to become weaker much faster than would naturally happen with interest rate differentials

EDIT : Overly simplistic article in today's Business Day, but it it touches on it - http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2015/03/23/straight-talk-pass-create-the-gaps-and-score
As I mentioned last time you asked, if you are interested in the effects of monetary policy and forex on economic structure, there are lot of resources available online. Alternatively you can pop into some of the lecture halls in the town where you live
 
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Why do you want us to be an export economy so badly? No 1st world country has an export economy.
 
Garson007 said:
Why do you want us to be an export economy so badly? No 1st world country has an export economy.
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Oh really? I assume you mean developed economy, and in which case, off the top of my head, Singapore, Switzerland and Germany says you are wrong.
Which is all beside the point. A developed economy can run as a consumption economy. For a developing economy, or newly industrialised economy such as ours, you first need to go through being an export economy before becoming a consumption economy (China is trying to make the transition now).
 
JStrike said:
Well, that's quite a long topic, but in a nutshell :
South Africa cannot continue as a consumption economy, which a strong Rand supports. The effects will build to a catastrophic result. (Our twin peaks are already of major concern)
A weaker Rand (Both Dollar and Euro) and greater stability is needed to become an exporting economy. And it needs to become weaker much faster than would naturally happen with interest rate differentials

EDIT : Overly simplistic article in today's Business Day, but it it touches on it - http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2015/03/23/straight-talk-pass-create-the-gaps-and-score
As I mentioned last time you asked, if you are interested in the effects of monetary policy and forex on economic structure, there are lot of resources available online. Alternatively you can pop into some of the lecture halls in the town where you live
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What do you see the rand should be trading at? I mean the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and US Dollar is 6.20 to 1. We almost double the chinese amount.

I do get that we need to export more, but we need lots of capital and infrastructure investments and that unfortunately is not priced in rands.
 
Nefertiti said:
What do you see the rand should be trading at? I mean the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and US Dollar is 6.20 to 1. We almost double the chinese amount.

I do get that we need to export more, but we need lots of capital and infrastructure investments and that unfortunately is not priced in rands.
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I do not know, and that is going to be the difficult part to model. But it will be possible to model it.
But it will probably need to be the Euro we will need to artificially weakened and stabilize against (It is our major trading partner), and then the Dollar will naturally be a percentage of that.
At a guess, I suspect Euro at R15 and Dollar R13
 
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Space_Chief said:
The Rand is continuously taking one step forward, two steps back.
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So what? The purpose of this thread is to track the exchange rate. A ~50 cent movement in the past week is certainly worth mentioning. If it had moved 50 cents in the other direction you can bet more people would have posted about it.
 
Thor187 said:
Yes. They fluctuate up not down
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Nope, they go both up and down. Though it's not sudden but gradual and with the rand having an overall weakening over the last 3 years you would only see them going up.
 
Garson007 said:
Why do you want us to be an export economy so badly? No 1st world country has an export economy.
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It seems like a fallacy to me. A weak rand will not enable us to become an export economy and is only a negative for us. We need to become an export economy before weakening the rand and there are many factors to that. A weak currency is at the bottom of that list.
 
Knyro said:
So what? The purpose of this thread is to track the exchange rate. A ~50 cent movement in the past week is certainly worth mentioning. If it had moved 50 cents in the other direction you can bet more people would have posted about it.
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Because people are not fooled by "jitter". The general trend is down, down, down. And 50 cents is worthless these days.
 
Swa said:
Nope, they go both up and down. Though it's not sudden but gradual and with the rand having an overall weakening over the last 3 years you would only see them going up.
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We all know that businesses have an incentive to avoid reducing prices because they gain a bit, all the while they will jump through multiple hoops to avoid losing a cent. Heck, I would. Besides the Rand is only going down in the long term.

3 years--- er, how about the last 20-30 years? It used to be > 1 Dollar.
 
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