The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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FlashSA said:
That Russian Roulette would send millions into debt rescue in this country. Can you even imagine the crisis!!
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Indeed, I doubt anyone will have the stomach for it, but we are in desperate times, they call for desperate measures ... any sort of half measure just won't cut it

Personally I prefer a massive rate hike to a massive ZAR devaluation, debt wise I'm in a better position than I am hedged against the ZAR (although I am hedged too, just not well enough for my liking)

With our glorious #1 in charge though we could just get both, massive rate hake, with no practical economic plan to speak of will have massive ZAR devaluation regardless ...
 
Kazakh currency rate still falling
Exchange rate of Kazakh national currency – the tenge – fell to 337.66 tenges per US dollar during the morning trading session at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) Dec. 29, which is 6.18 tenges less than on Dec. 28, said the KASE on its website.

Trading volume on the US dollar rose to $249 million compared to $125 million in the morning session the day before.

Meanwhile, the tenge exchange rate against the euro fell during the morning trading session by 5.2 tenges standing at 371.10 tenges per one euro. The trading volume was 200,000 euros.

The exchange rate of the Kazakh national currency has dropped significantly since July 2015. In July, the tenge rate was 186 tenges per US dollar. In early 2014, the rate was 154.06 tenges per US dollar.

http://en.trend.az/casia/kazakhstan/2475244.html
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Russia's ruble currency falls to new lows

The Russian ruble continues to fall. The currency has opened almost two percent weaker on January 11. Concerns over China's economy are blamed for the ruble's decline.

http://uatoday.tv/business/russia-s-rouble-currency-falls-to-new-lows-569323.html
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Azerbaijan's currency lost almost half its value overnight

Azerbaijan has become the latest former Soviet republic to devalue its currency in the wake of falling oil prices.

The country's central bank said it "decided to switch to floating manat rate from Dec 21. Based on that, the manat rate will be determined by demand and offer on the forex market."

The manat rate fell to 1.55 per US dollar on Monday, down 47.6% from Friday, according to Reuters.

Kazakhstan devalued its currency, the tenge, in August. The currency fell 23% when the country announced it was abandoning a policy of keeping it pegged to the dollar.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/azerbaijan-devalues-currency-manat-2015-12
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Canadian dollar sinks below 71¢ as analysts warn of further corrosion

The Canadian dollar tumbled below the 71-cent mark today, continuing its downward trend and heading for what some analysts believe will be a bottom of about 70 cents (U.S.).

The currency has been hammered generally by the oil shock, poor prospects for domestic economic growth and the different paths being taken by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ts-warn-of-further-corrosion/article28030385/
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So it isn't just the ZAR.
 
Archer said:
Will they wait until the end of the month to make the interest rate announcement?
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that is a tricky one, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't

hike early and basically broadcast to the world their panic is justified, because now we're panicking, leave it to the scheduled meeting date and the way Jan is going it may be too late for a small hike ...
 
satanboy said:
So it isn't just the ZAR.
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Percentage wise the Canadian drop is nothing compared to the ZAR drop, Azerbaijan sets the rate themselves so it was a conscious decision to devalue sharply, Kazahkstan mind you looks proper f-ed, who knew.

Funny though that percentage wise, Russia, the country under active sanctions from both USA and the EU, the country engaging in an expensive war effort, the country relying heavily on oil exports which are now cheap as chips, still seems better off than ZA since December 2014?!?

I hope it is just the whisky blurring my vision, if not, WELL DONE ZUMATELLO, slow clap!
 
I'm sooo happy I invested in bitcoin! (and continue to buy as much bitcoin as possible)
 
Xarog said:
Lol.

If you're in a cell with no way out and you have a choice between a gold bar and a steady supply of water, which one is more valuable to you? Which one is more valuable to you if you can get more water somewhere else?

If I've got 1 000 fruit then I really don't care much about the 1 fruit you happen to have. If I've got no fruit, however, then 1 fruit from you might be something I'm willing to pay for in its weight in gold.

This is the system which governs the human mechanism of reaching an agreement with respect to value. There's simply no such thing as intrinsic value the way you claim exists. Value is a creation of the human mind, no more, no less. Creation of values is a neccessary part of computing relative desirability in terms of decision-making heirarchies in the brain. It is a mistake to think they exist in the Universe divorced from of our minds.
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Double lol. Ignoring that it still DOES have a real intrinsic value. But didn't expect anything less from someone who posts that commerce has slowed down to a halt. ;)
 
Swa said:
Double lol. Ignoring that it still DOES have a real intrinsic value. But didn't expect anything less from someone who posts that commerce has slowed down to a halt. ;)
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If it exists you can show it to exist. But you can't show it to exist; you can only argue that in your opinion it must exist. And your ad-hominems are cute. They warm the cockles of my dark little heart.
 
Xarog said:
If it exists you can show it to exist. But you can't show it to exist; you can only argue that in your opinion it must exist. And your ad-hominems are cute. They warm the cockles of my dark little heart.
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I showed you, but you chose to ignore it.
 
Here it is for you. On 15 November a Big Mac was $4.79. In July in SA it was $2.01 That's an undervaluation of ~60%. What was the USD/ZAR in July? Something like R14? So the true value of our currency is around R6/$. Better than what I initially said. So where is your rebuttal using true figures and not nonsensical rhetoric?
 
Swa said:
Here it is for you. On 15 November a Big Mac was $4.79. In July in SA it was $2.01 That's an undervaluation of ~60%. What was the USD/ZAR in July? Something like R14? So the true value of our currency is around R6/$. Better than what I initially said. So where is your rebuttal using true figures and not nonsensical rhetoric?
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The Big Mac index is primarily used to determine cost of living as a comparison between countries.
 
Swa said:
Here it is for you. On 15 November a Big Mac was $4.79. In July in SA it was $2.01 That's an undervaluation of ~60%. What was the USD/ZAR in July? Something like R14? So the true value of our currency is around R6/$. Better than what I initially said. So where is your rebuttal using true figures and not nonsensical rhetoric?
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Ok so the big mac index more or less states what you do, but you do realize The Economist started the big mac index as a bit of a joke right?

There are so many things that render it useless that it should only be used for what it is intended: entertainment

For example:
- big macs are not the same size in all countries, nor do they have the exact same ingredients, and they are not sourced from the same suppliers (e.g. some countries may be importing more ingredients than others), they don't have the same cost to "build" and they don't have the same markup % in all countries
- the price of a big mac is determined by what the local market A) can afford and B) is willing to pay for it, not just it's cost structure, this is roughly what your opponent here has been saying using different words

For the index to be taken seriously all variables in all countries would have to be identical, leaving the exchange rate as the only factor that influences things, but it simply is not the case

Anyway, guess the short summary being: the ZAR is worth only what other people are willing to pay for it, and it will take a hell of a lot more than a cheap big mac to convince them the ZAR is worth more of their hard currencies :whistle:
 
Swa said:
You merely claim it doesn't. So right back at you again as usual.
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Burden of proof doesn't lie with me to prove a negative. I provided a description which is capable of managing every single human attempt to define a value, and the description is sufficient to explain the phenomenon of value as far as humans can define it in its entirety. If you want to show that something beyond that exists, the burden of proof lies on you.

You are of course free to dispute the validity of my interpretation, but I doubt you'll be able to find a single criticism which sticks.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Ok so the big mac index more or less states what you do, but you do realize The Economist started the big mac index as a bit of a joke right?

There are so many things that render it useless that it should only be used for what it is intended: entertainment

For example:
- big macs are not the same size in all countries, nor do they have the exact same ingredients, and they are not sourced from the same suppliers (e.g. some countries may be importing more ingredients than others), they don't have the same cost to "build" and they don't have the same markup % in all countries
- the price of a big mac is determined by what the local market A) can afford and B) is willing to pay for it, not just it's cost structure, this is roughly what your opponent here has been saying using different words

For the index to be taken seriously all variables in all countries would have to be identical, leaving the exchange rate as the only factor that influences things, but it simply is not the case

Anyway, guess the short summary being: the ZAR is worth only what other people are willing to pay for it, and it will take a hell of a lot more than a cheap big mac to convince them the ZAR is worth more of their hard currencies :whistle:
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Yet it somehow stuck and has been in use ever since. The bold part is exactly what I'm interested in. It's priced according to what it's worth in the relevant currency and matches across a wide range of other goods. No coincidence it matches so closely what I initially outlined. Purchasing power is the only independent metric that can determine true value. Not market sentiment which is based on a lot of other factors the least of which being real value.
 
Xarog said:
Burden of proof doesn't lie with me to prove a negative. I provided a description which is capable of managing every single human attempt to define a value, and the description is sufficient to explain the phenomenon of value as far as humans can define it in its entirety. If you want to show that something beyond that exists, the burden of proof lies on you.

You are of course free to dispute the validity of my interpretation, but I doubt you'll be able to find a single criticism which sticks.
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Nonsensical arguments don't need any criticisms. Stop with your proving a negative BS. I gave you a real world independent metric to determine true value. You provided nothing in return except empty rhetoric. You are of course free to do so now, but somehow I don't think you will just like you didn't for your ship nonsense. :)
 
Swa said:
Nonsensical arguments don't need any criticisms. Stop with your proving a negative BS. I gave you a real world independent metric to determine true value. You provided nothing in return except empty rhetoric. You are of course free to do so now, but somehow I don't think you will just like you didn't for your ship nonsense. :)
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A metric contrived by a human mind, you mean. And which ultimately resorts to other values contrived by human minds, and as such falls entirely within the ambit of the description I provided.
 
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