The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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NarrowBandFtw said:
they'd need to hike by 100 basis points to convince me they're serious

25 pts to simply counteract the Fed's tightening in December
25 pts to counteract the general decline in exchange rate
25 pts to counteract the direct impact of nenegate
25 pts because once you're at 75 you might as well hike 100 and do it properly
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sounds legit :wtf:
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
A big increase might give us another chance at moving more money offshore at least ...

i.t.o. a 5% or bigger hike, the main thing for me is we're way past the point where small / incremental / half measures will have any lasting or significant effect. Time to do something different, otherwise why expect a different result? That whole definition of insanity saying comes to mind.
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investors like certainty, increasing the interest rate by 5% when nobody expected it will create more chaos in the markets, it will be an almost 100% increase in the interest rate.
 
HavocXphere said:
Again...useful from your narrow (lol) perspective but not useful ito economic reasoning.
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Ok economic reasoning if you insist:

- our biggest problem by far is capital flight (yes even bigger than the drought, because it makes our imports more expensive)

- a huge hike in interest rates, even in economies under active sanctions like Russia, has a near instant effect in reversing capital flight, the carry trade simply becomes too attractive to ignore

- reversal of capital flight = more foreign investment = more jobs

Narrow perspective (aside from my nickname here :p) would be being too scared of the short term pain (i.e. increased stress on most of our consumers) to secure the long term gain (i.e. reverse capital flight at all costs)

Would you like to have a life threatening operation that could cure you or do you prefer a guarantee of dying slowly and painfully?

EDIT: forgot to add as I have in a related thread that structural reform is our only real hope, but seeing as it won't ever happen, the only tool we have right now is sadly the repo rate
 
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I expect it to fall to around 16.07 within the next couple hours or so, maybe even 15.77. Anything lower than that and it could fall for a while hopefully.
 
agentrfr said:
I expect it to fall to around 16.07 within the next couple hours or so, maybe even 15.77. Anything lower than that and it could fall for a while hopefully.
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Would be nice of it does
 

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agentrfr said:
I expect it to fall to around 16.07 within the next couple hours or so, maybe even 15.77. Anything lower than that and it could fall for a while hopefully.
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Toe nie
 

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Gtx Gaming said:
We need gold back at the 1600 level !

Oil prices are going up and if the rand stays at this level we won't be able to afford petrol soon :(
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what do you mean oil prices are going up? its been going down for atleast the past year
 
Was 27 dollars is now 33 . Russians are in discussions to reduce the amount of oil they pumping out also.
 
Gtx Gaming said:
Was 27 dollars is now 33 . Russians are in discussions to reduce the amount of oil they pumping out also.
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that doesn't mean the price is going up, the trend is still down for as long as oil tankers are floating around the planet filled with oil

the excess supply is huge, expect oil to break $25
 
Gtx Gaming said:
Was 27 dollars is now 33 . Russians are in discussions to reduce the amount of oil they pumping out also.
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You mean they are making less available so will have a surplus in future they'd need to get rid of at reduced prices. That's what got us into this mess.
 
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