US politics general thread

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Xarog

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Who said international trade had to be simple? Sometimes those free trade agreements do more harm than having multiple free trade agreement.
If it's not simple, the solution is unlikely to be simplistic.

Ukraine and the EU must remain trading partners. Ukraine joining the EU borg is what was on the backburner. Which is why Russia got involved.
Yes, obviously, but the EU borg was established initially via a common market. An argument could even be made that the EU borg came into existence for the sake of the common market, which is one of the reasons why I find myself firmly on the nationalist side of the nationalist/globalist debate.

I didn't say that the government shouldn't get involved. What I am saying is that the government should only get involved when the players are not playing by the same rules.
I agree with that. But I also think that it's generally the case that the players don't play by the same rules. I think it is trivially easy to point out that each country has its own set of economic regulations, its own set of business practices, it's own set of what sort of activity is considered criminal, etc. etc. These differences create local inequalities, and I don't see how you can equalise these without some sort of universalisation taking place.

As for state interference in the local economy, it is something to be avoided as much as possible. Governments already have a monopoly of force, they don't need the monopoly of economic power as well.
Right, this is the libertarian element I keep detecting.

So for example, I don't have a problem with a government preferring a local manufacturer for police weapons. But where I start draw the line is when the government becomes a provider of goods instead of a consumer.
Ok, so you think that the only way the government should be allowed to raise funds is via taxation?
 

konfab

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If it's not simple, the solution is unlikely to be simplistic.
Which is why there are these complex things called trade agreements.

Yes, obviously, but the EU borg was established initially via a common market. An argument could even be made that the EU borg came into existence for the sake of the common market, which is one of the reasons why I find myself firmly on the nationalist side of the nationalist/globalist debate.
The EU is an example of trying to simply things too much to the point where the simplifications become more complex than the things they are trying to simplify.


I agree with that. But I also think that it's generally the case that the players don't play by the same rules. I think it is trivially easy to point out that each country has its own set of economic regulations, its own set of business practices, it's own set of what sort of activity is considered criminal, etc. etc. These differences create local inequalities, and I don't see how you can equalise these without some sort of universalisation taking place.
And that is why you have trade deals that take into account those things.
They don't need to be universal because the deals are only going to be between two countries. What they will rather do is find that universality approximately through the market. Which is the best you can ever do.

Right, this is the libertarian element I keep detecting.
So? The hardcore libertarians are also against borders which puts me at odds with that as well.
The libertarian side would also advocate for something like solar power that does not require the government to get involved. This is delusional when you start looking at the mathematics of electricity distribution.

Ok, so you think that the only way the government should be allowed to raise funds is via taxation?
Yes. It is much less of an evil for governments to require their funds via taking money directly rather than them "earning" through monopolies.
 

Xarog

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Which is why there are these complex things called trade agreements.

Yes. It is much less of an evil for governments to require their funds via taking money directly rather than them "earning" through monopolies.
I didn't say they had to be monopolies. I'm just trying to establish that you think governments have to engage in taxation to generate the necessary revenue to provide national security.

The fact of the matter is that not every state has the same tax rate, and a government does have the discretion to tax different economic activities at different levels. For example, if you have lots of dirt cheap electricity, it's probably less onerous to the society to tax that instead of taxing something that's already rare and expensive. The fact that each country will have a differing profile with respect to which industries are in favourable positions versus unfavourable positions means that any sane and well-meaning government would actually adjust its taxation regimen to account for these disparities. It then becomes incumbent upon governments trading with foreign countries to be sensitive to these disparities.

The EU is an example of trying to simply things too much to the point where the simplifications become more complex than the things they are trying to simplify.
Well, once you agree to a common market unified by a common set of rules, you need to have an authority to determine which rules are the correct ones. The EU borg was inevitable the moment that you had a combination of common market regulations as well as trans-national European corporations who didn't want to have to defer to national governments in order to justify their conduct.

And that is why you have trade deals that take into account those things.
They don't need to be universal because the deals are only going to be between two countries. What they will rather do is find that universality approximately through the market. Which is the best you can ever do.
The market is not interested in creating an equilibrium between two disparate states. It is interested in maximising the disparity in order to capitalise upon the situation. It is in the interests of nation-states to pre-empt this insofar as such preemption serves the national interest, where the national interest is defined as the sum of interests of the individuals residing within that nation.

So? The hardcore libertarians are also against borders which puts me at odds with that as well.
The libertarian side would also advocate for something like solar power that does not require the government to get involved. This is delusional when you start looking at the mathematics of electricity distribution.
Right, but this is my exact point. You argue for the same sort of market-based solution that the libertarians do, and I just don't see it happening. The fact that government has to set taxation rates means that the government must interfere with the market to some degree, because taxation definitely affects what sort of businesses remain profitable.
 

Xarog

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Score another diplomatic victory for Trump, whose hard line negotiating tactic appears to have generated a dramatic - and favorable for market - outcome. Moments ago futures spiked, 10Y yields jumped and the USDJPY bounced about 106 on the flashing "bullish" news headline that North Korea is "ready to denuclearize if regime safety is assured."

NKOREA OPEN TO DENUCLEARIZE IF REGIME SAFETY GUARANTEED: SKOREA

The headlines come from South Korean National Security Office special envoy Chung Eui-yong, who is speaking to reporters in Seoul after returning from Pyongyang. Remember he and another envoy, National Intelligence Service chief Suh Hoon met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on Monday. Chung confirms that North Korea is indeed ready to stop the jawboning and negotiate:

Kim Jong Un open to frank talks with U.S. for denuclearization: Chung
North Korea to suspend provocations during talks: Chung
Promises not to use any weapons against South Korea: Chung

Next step: a summit in April between the two neighbors where details will be ironed out: "North Korea, South Korea agree to hold summit in April", Chung says.

The easing of tensions between the two Koreas and this clearly positive geopolitical development has triggered a broad based risk-on move. Fixed income is selling off sharply here, with Bunds flying. As the spot KRW market is closed, the NDF space is in focus. The 1m NDF has traded from 1076.0 to 1070.8 at time of print. USDJPY is spiking higher at 106.10 at print. This move may have legs especially as early NY begins to come in

The question now is whether this unexpected diplomatic victory for Trump will further empower him to demand similar concessions on the trade side, and launch the "trade wars", even as the market is now fully convinced that the US president will backtrack.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-06/north-korea-ready-denuclearize-if-regime-safety-assured
 

konfab

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North Korea has agreed to halt nuclear and missile tests while talks are taking place, Moon’s office said. It also pledged to avoid using nuclear or conventional weapons against South Korea, it said.

That is odd language :erm:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/north-korea-open-to-denuclearize-if-regime-safety-guaranteed

R100 says that liberals will say this was part of Obama's legacy as well .
 

Xarog

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That is odd language :erm:
It's better than pledging to disarm. I think it's reasonable for a nation to expect to have the ability to defend itself, but to also use that ability as a last resort.

R100 says that liberals will say this was part of Obama's legacy as well .
Anything to avoid admitting that Trump's international politics is full of 4D Chess moves, too.
 

buka001

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I think what SK president Moon has done in terms of promoting dialogue and engagement with NK has had more of an effect than Trump's bellicose rhetoric.

After all it is a South Korean delegation that is in NK at the moment, who are meeting with NK officials.

Trump hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK yet.
 

C4Cat

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It's better than pledging to disarm. I think it's reasonable for a nation to expect to have the ability to defend itself, but to also use that ability as a last resort.


Anything to avoid admitting that Trump's international politics is full of 4D Chess moves, too.

I think what SK president Moon has done in terms of promoting dialogue and engagement with NK has had more of an effect than Trump's bellicose rhetoric.

After all it is a South Korean delegation that is in NK at the moment, who are meeting with NK officials.

Trump hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK yet.

Even Trump hasn't claimed any credit for these talks, and he claims credit for everything!
 

cerebus

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I think what SK president Moon has done in terms of promoting dialogue and engagement with NK has had more of an effect than Trump's bellicose rhetoric.

After all it is a South Korean delegation that is in NK at the moment, who are meeting with NK officials.

Trump hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK yet.

If Trump had been directly responsible for NK backing down, it wouldn't be 4d now would it? You gotta use your head, man.
 

rietrot

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I think what SK president Moon has done in terms of promoting dialogue and engagement with NK has had more of an effect than Trump's bellicose rhetoric.

After all it is a South Korean delegation that is in NK at the moment, who are meeting with NK officials.

Trump hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK yet.
And Trump set that up by pushing NK almost to the point of no return were even China was against them.
I didn't favour that approach because the risk seemed to high, but it looks like it's going to work.
Now the US just need to take a back seat and let SK and China handle it.
 

OrbitalDawn

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The whole idea of an "international city" is a bit stupid. The concept hasn't really worked in the past. Most of them end up being conquered anyway by the stronger of the powers. Which has kinda already happened

I think a more sustainable position would be let Israel keep Jerusalem (which means all the people in it become Israelis), then as part of the process, there has to be a mandatory quota of free religious visas to the holy sites that Israel has to provide.

The idea of religions wanting exclusive access to pieces of dirt is very stupid, but that's the history of the ME for you.

Anyhoo, it's probably moot as Naftali Bennett said just yesterday that the idea of a Palestinian state is "over", and he's possibly going to succeed the corrupt dope Netanyahu.

Healthy competition implies that all parties are playing with the same rules. That is what should be the basis of a trade agreement. On things like labour laws and government interference in the economy, there is no free market at play between China and the US. Which is why Trump is correct with his tariffs.

Except he isn't, because China is 17th on the list of countries they import steel from - it's miniscule.

He's hitting allies like Canada (#1) and South Korea (#2), with whom they do have free trade agreements.

And when he put tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, he benefited companie in the US that are owned by Chinese companies, so another own-goal there.

konfab said:
The caveat to this, is the US should be using its influence to try and get some reciprocity on the laws. For example, I see no reason why prospective trade deals should not include some sort of reciprocity of labour laws.

They had that, it was called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Trump pulled them out of. D'oh.


Command economies are good now, konfab? :)

Or maybe we can stop with the silly absolutes and admit that a mixed economy is best?
 

OrbitalDawn

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I think what SK president Moon has done in terms of promoting dialogue and engagement with NK has had more of an effect than Trump's bellicose rhetoric.

After all it is a South Korean delegation that is in NK at the moment, who are meeting with NK officials.

Trump hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK yet.

Yep, and...

Phone call Trump said he had with North Korean regime was actually with South Korea's president

:crylaugh:

The New Yorker long-form piece on Christopher Steele is worth a read, if you have the time.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/12/christopher-steele-the-man-behind-the-trump-dossier

I actually read through the whole thing yesterday, it's quite fascinating. Gives a lot of background context and some new revelations - such as the theory that Putin hand-picked Rex Tillerson for Sec of State.

New Yorker is generally excellent, as is Jane Mayer. Her book, Dark Money is great.

Key bit from that piece:

Robert Hannigan, then the head of the U.K.’s intelligence service the G.C.H.Q., had recently flown to Washington and briefed the C.I.A.’s director, John Brennan, on a stream of illicit communications between Trump’s team and Moscow that had been intercepted. (The content of these intercepts has not become public.)
 

OrbitalDawn

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Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway violated Hatch Act in TV interviews, federal investigators say

Kellyanne Conway, a top advisor to President Donald Trump, violated the federal law prohibiting some political activity by high-level officials with her comments in two television interviews about the special election for a Senate seat from Alabama, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel said Tuesday.

That investigatory office said it has sent its report on Conway's actions to Trump for "appropriate disciplinary action."
 

OrbitalDawn

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The brazenness is staggering...

Payday lenders, watchdog agency exhibit cozier relationship

The former CEO of a payday lending company that had been under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has asked to be considered for the top job at the watchdog agency, The Associated Press has learned.

Such a request would have been extraordinary in the years when the agency was run by an Obama appointee and often targeted payday lenders. Along with recent actions taken by the CFPB, it suggests a cozier relationship between industry and regulator since the Trump administration took over in November.

Under Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s budget director and acting director of the CFPB, the bureau has taken a decidedly friendlier approach to the financial industry including cutting down on enforcement and dropping investigations or lawsuits against payday lenders and other companies.

...

Two days later, Matricciani sent an email to what appears to be Mulvaney’s personal email address to pitch herself as a candidate to lead the CFPB.

EPA appointee gets approval to consult for outside clients

A key aide to Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has been granted permission to make extra money moonlighting for private clients whose identities are being kept secret.
 

OrbitalDawn

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Gary Cohn's resigned.

NYT had this posted earlier, but MSNBC confirming on air...

Wasn't going to get the stupidity of tariffs through Trump or Navarro's thick skulls.

Read an interesting tweet about why Trump chose Navarro. He found the only person with a PhD who was willing to echo the dumb ideas he has about trade.
 

greg0205

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Wasn't going to get the stupidity of tariffs through Trump or Navarro's thick skulls.

Read an interesting tweet about why Trump chose Navarro. He found the only person with a PhD who was willing to echo the dumb ideas he has about trade.

And I read a tweet that 45 kinda treats these issues like Thunderdome... Gets Cohn and Ross in a room and says, "Tariffs. Fight."

Cohn was a Goldman Sachs guy... No way he's rolling out in front of cameras to defend 45 on this, or to talk up tariffs. No way.
There will be life after Trump for Cohn, but a lot of that depends on him not self-immolating right now.
 

OrbitalDawn

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And I read a tweet that 45 kinda treats these issues like Thunderdome... Gets Cohn and Ross in a room and says, "Tariffs. Fight."

Cohn was a Goldman Sachs guy... No way he's rolling out in front of cameras to defend 45 on this, or to talk up tariffs. No way.
There will be life after Trump for Cohn, but a lot of that depends on him not self-immolating right now.

Navarro and Ross were also organising meetings when they knew other cabinet members who think it's a dumb idea (Mattis, Tillerson and Mnuchin) couldn't attend.

Good article on what a dummy Navarro is.

What Trump’s Trade Guru Doesn’t Get About Economics
 

C4Cat

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https://twitter.com/ananavarro/status/971209163115253760?s=19
This wk:
Nunberg subpoenaed, couldn’t stop blabbing;
Kellyanne said to have violated ethics law;
Carson realized HUD’s complicated;
Cohn quit, over tariffs not anti-Semitism;
Guy from UAE who knows stuff, cooperating w/Mueller;
Trump tweeted there’s no chaos;
It’s only Tuesday.
And add to that, porn star Stormy Daniels sued President Trump on Tuesday... Going to be a long week!
 
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