Why do I "need" FIBRE?

I have seen quite a few... often times the houses catch fire.
Those that don't catch fire usually require extensive repairs, the houses I've known that endured direct hits usually need to be rewired (the wires melt in the conduit and the plug sockets often explode), as well as replacement of the breakers and the earth leakage. Everything electronic in the house is usually a complete loss. The one place I helped my uncle out with to earn extra tom during my teenage years, even the geyser element was blown open circuit by the strike.
I can concur to some extent. My place was hit (well "near miss" to be precise - struck the boundary fence 2 mtrs away) some years back. The force was strong enough to even knock pictures off the walls. Most electronics needed repair/replacement and the whole upper level had to be rewired.
 
There is no exception to the rule here. A direct strike is a direct strike! nothing going to stop that.
Nothing stops lightning. Effective protection , even over 100 years ago, does what Ben Franklin demonstrated over 250 years ago. Only a fool buys boxes that would block or absorb a surge. Protection even from direct lighting strikes has always been about connecting that surge current harmlessly to earth. As Franklin demonstrated over 250 years ago.

Damage id because lightning was all but invited inside. Telcos all over the world are at much greater risk with far more exposed incoming wire. How often is your telco without phone service for four days after each storm due to damage? Never. Exactly. That telco CO suffers about 100 surges with each storm - because something completely different (unfortunately also called a surge protector) connects that surge harmlessly to earth.

Nobody foolishly tries to stop lightning. Direct lightning strikes without damage has been routine for over 100 years. But only when a homeowner learns simple, well proven, concepts. Every wire inside every incoming cable must connect low impedance (ie less than 3 meters) to single point earth ground. TV cable makes that best protection using only a hardwire - no protector. Telephone cannot connect direct to earth. So a 'whole house' protector makes that low impedance (ie hardwire has no sharp bends or splices) connection to earth.

Effective protection has always answered this question. Where do hundreds of thousands of joules harmlessly dissipate. How many joules do magic plug-in boxes claim to absorb? Hundreds? Thousand? None claim to protect from a typically destructive surge. In some cases, can even make surge damage easier. And are routinely sold to consumers who ignore all numbers. Who then assume nothing can protect from lightning. Direct lightning strikes without damage is routine when a 'whole house' solution is properly connected low impedance (ie less than 3 meters) to single point earth ground. Then a surge is not anywhere inside.
 
Err yes actually.

When have you ever heard of anything being hurt by lightning other than a modem that was connected to copper telephone lines?
Plenty of times. My brother actually stayed between cellphone towers. Physically it's impossible for anything to be hit anywhere near there. The theory though is that it struck the tower and traveled back to the network frying the modem, decoder and everything. Luckily the unconnected laptops survived so I didn't have to do data recovery.

Static electricity isn't what you think it is. Lightning strikes are as a result of dielectric breakdown, it means that enough potential energy has built up in the space between the clouds and the ground that it can discharge through the air or whatever is in its way. Everything is a conductor if you have enough voltage. Even so, it usually happens when there's a slightly easier than average path to earth - something tall and conductive for example. That's why lightning rods work in the first place.

In @WalkWithMe's story, it was just a coincidence that lightning struck where the fibre box was. I'll bet you anything that his modem / router wasn't affected, just the connection box on the wall outside. Current won't have travelled through the fibre to his equipment the way it could easily have done with copper telephone lines.
Metal just makes it easier but it isn't a requirement. Air is actually a poor conductor. Most likely it traveled across the lead as it gave it an easier path. It's also not current in the way you're used to it but mostly volts.

Well, a close lightning strike does generate an EMP, that's what blows stuff up, induces voltages in wires etc..
Technically it's an electromagnetic field and not an EMP but I get where you're coming from. If it was an EMP then your speakers would damage electronic equipment as well. Decades ago when I was still playing with electronics there was near strike and the stuff I was playing with beeped without a power source. You could also feel a tingling sensation. There's a lot of residual static that surrounds a direct strike and it doesn't need a direct path. This static can cause extremely high voltage in electronics especially cmos devices.
 
Of course the MD is involved :p ! , @nicksoper according to the vanilla site its only 100gb. Why is there such a disparity in pricing at this 1gb/s level between isp's over the same network ?
We can’t speak for other ISP’s but our thinking regarding pricing boils down to strategy and expenses. We’re avoiding being the cheapest on the market, but we are a startup so we want to be competitive. We are fibre only and we don’t have a bunch of legacy policies or other products that make things complicated. It doesn't seems like prices are that different for that segment. Does that help at all?
 
We can’t speak for other ISP’s but our thinking regarding pricing boils down to strategy and expenses. We’re avoiding being the cheapest on the market, but we are a startup so we want to be competitive. We are fibre only and we don’t have a bunch of legacy policies or other products that make things complicated. It doesn't seems like prices are that different for that segment. Does that help at all?

It is helpful , I have to disagree with the pricing differentiation though (if we are isolating this just to octotel ) your next closest competitor after vanilla is priced at a whopping R2500p/m! for an uncapped unshaped gigabit connection. Pricing on the vumatel network seems even more competitive with the best priced gigabit uncapped product being R1500p/m , which leads me to believe the pricing of the product is linked to the line rental cost the FNO charges the ISP and EVEN then most of the other ISP's seem to be charging a premium.
 
Some information for small families
(read on if you are spending too much on your data):
My wife and I are the only two who constantly use our internet connection.
Sometimes a visitor (or two or more) may connect and use it for a limited time.
We have (I think) the most economical setup for our purposes.
Our usage is:
Netflix streaming (not HD) almost 8 hours a day.
Email and Youtube viewing mostly in the evenings and weekends.
Some other sporadic web browsing from time to time.
Our equipment and service setup is:
One desktop PC connected to a 27 inch TV, one laptop, two cell phones.
All four devices are permanently connected via WIFI.
Copper ADSL (2Mbit/s) with land line telephone service.
ISP is Telkom Internet with 20Gb "Softcap" and 100Gb "Do Movies".
With persistence and patience you CAN get Telkom to make it work properly.
There is fibre line to our house and we have been offered fibre services.
Why do I "need" fibre? No one has adequately answered this question.
Would like to see what car you drive?
 
I am the last on ADSL in my block. (I have a 48 pair distribution cable to the Streetbox all to myself now).

First, offer in October/18 from Telkom --- maintain current service (2 Mbps ADSL2+) but have to pay for installation and equipment (R 5000) ---- Turned down.
2nd, November -- Okay no equipment cost but must convert to 4 mbps on fibre and R 605 per month excluding the fixed tel service via fibre ----- turned down
3rd, Dec no equipment cost-free install, but 10 Mbps plus line transferred to VoiP --- turned down
4th, Jan/19 free install and equipment 10 Mbps plus VoiP phone --- R 807 pm. ---- turned down
5th, Feb --- all of the above but you can go for 4 mbps at R 649 pm. turned down

Conclusion: None of the offers has anything to do with what is possible technically, all Marketing Bullshchit.
 
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Some information for small families
(read on if you are spending too much on your data):
My wife and I are the only two who constantly use our internet connection.
Sometimes a visitor (or two or more) may connect and use it for a limited time.
We have (I think) the most economical setup for our purposes.
Our usage is:
Netflix streaming (not HD) almost 8 hours a day.
Email and Youtube viewing mostly in the evenings and weekends.
Some other sporadic web browsing from time to time.
Our equipment and service setup is:
One desktop PC connected to a 27 inch TV, one laptop, two cell phones.
All four devices are permanently connected via WIFI.
Copper ADSL (2Mbit/s) with land line telephone service.
ISP is Telkom Internet with 20Gb "Softcap" and 100Gb "Do Movies".
With persistence and patience you CAN get Telkom to make it work properly.
There is fibre line to our house and we have been offered fibre services.
Why do I "need" fibre? No one has adequately answered this question.

Can confirm most of the positive reasons why you should move to fibre
Remember also, that the modem and router need to be placed at a point in your home convenient to you, NOT to the supplier or whatever shortcut the installer wants to take.

The ONT/modem and router MUST be provided with reliable stby power preferably NOT an el cheapo UPS and the best is a DC system, not an inverter DC/AC/DC setup.
That setup must be protected with class III SPD/ lightning protection.

Distance from the central point/exchange on ADSL is maximum 5 km under perfect conditions - Fibre can stretch for 20 km on GPON (the most often used equipment in SA). AON, depending on the design can stretch to 100 km.

Improved latency not because it is on fibre as some suggest BUT because there is less equipment involved between you and the backbone with fewer protocol conversions. The latency due to distance is almost exactly the same as before.

Ping does not increase as someone posted --- ping results are improved (less), routing should be improved depending on the service provider and his shenanigans.

Reliability: Well, unfortunately, this is NOT really a factor of technology or equipment, but the quality of installation, maintenance as well as the business plans of the ISP, not so much the backbone provider. In other words, the same old same as affected ADSL. I gave it 5 years for maintenance issues to start to show up on FTTH. And we are there now as some have reported already, So don't do the conversion solely based on this as a reason.

Congestion: Unfortunately, we are going to see an increase in complaints about congestion and poor throughput over fibre, just as was the case with ADSL. Why? Because again, the prime reason for congestion is oversubscription and high contention ratios because of lousy business plans and profit greed and short term payback. In other words, ISPS are their worst own enemies, not the technology they choose to use.

Already, an added layer of contention has been introduced, not there previously between you and the exchange over a shared service such as GPON.
Already, the share ratio 1:64 instead of the original 1:32. The claim is made is because the new fibre capacities on GPON have been increased, BUT, what guarantee does the user have, when the suppliers are cagey about telling you how they have deployed the GPON network? As these networks get loaded with customers and a mix of high- and low-usage customers, we are going to see an increase in complaints about poor performance during peak usage times, which will be fobbed off and delayed until the usage pattern returns to normal and then the complaints will just be written off as NFF.

ISPs are apparently using a 10:1 contention ratio. If you press them on the matter, they will trot out a justification based on voice telephony, because that IS where they get that figure from! I am pretty sure the more ropey providers are working on even higher contention ratios. The fact is with high usage internet access and streaming services, gaming etc, that a contention ratio of 6:1 and even 3:1 is what is required as a maximum.

Lastly, The FTTH guys have very little background as to where the technology comes, a poor understanding of how the downstream technology works and even less of the TDMA upstream technology typically used in a GPON system. This lack of understanding is going to bite them in the arse. The only uncertainty is when.
 
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Well, a close lightning strike does generate an EMP, that's what blows stuff up, induces voltages in wires etc..

Lightning struck a lightning rod. That means maybe 20,000 amps flows down its hardwire to earth ground. Only 1.3 meters inside (well within a strong EMP field) was an IBM PC. It did not even blink. As also true for all other office equipment. Hardware damage from EMP is speculation; not fact.

Back then, interface components were not as robust. And EMP could not cause damage. Today, interface devices are even more robust - can withstand 2k or 15K generated voltages without damage ( https://datasheets.maximintegrated.com/en/ds/MAX1487E-MAX491E.pdf ).

A nearby lightning strike can create a field that generates maybe thousands of volts on a long wire antenna. So we connect an NE-2 neon glow light to that antenna lead. A less than 1 milliamp conducted through that NE-2 means thousands of volts drops to tens of volts. That high voltage field only exists when no current flows. Even the less than 1 mamp current through that NE-2 completely eliminates transients created by EMP. Electronics effectively protected.

When one did not figure out how lightning was a direct strike, then speculation assumed (blamed) EMP. Lightning only creates damage then when a current has an incoming and a completely different outgoing path. If both paths don't exist, then electricity does not flow. Experience and science (no speculation) has made that obvious for over a century.

Lightning strikes a tree. A current from cloud (ie three miles up) to earthborned charges (ie four miles through earth) is connected through that tree. Some 10 meters away is a cow; killed by lightning. Wild speculation says the cow was killed by EMP. Reality: cow was directly struck. A path from tree to distant charges went up that cow's hind legs and down its fore legs. Dead because that cow was a better conductor than earth beneath it. Another example of a direct strike doing damage. Humans who blamed EMP because they did not learn the many examples of a direct strike. And why humans, exposed during a thunderstorm, must keep feet together so as to also not suffer from a direct lightning strike.

A direct lightning strike only a meter from an IBM PC did no damage. An NE-2 neon glow lamp can even eliminate currents generated by EMP. Most use EMP as an excuse due to not learning where lightning currents flow, what EMP really is, inexperience, and not first learning from over 100 years of well proven science.
 
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Can your routet still get fried by the lighting or is that also exempt from lightning?
The risk is reduced that is all. Will the ONT/Modem and routers still get fried under certain conditions? Without a doubt.
Despite common opinion on this matter, the issue remains that poor grounding and a lack of surge protection on your incoming mains is still the predominant reason why equipment gets fried.
 
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So what is the date you remember? I was on a test group on ADSL in 1997 ----- 384 kbps.
Which area was this... as I was working in the Gauteng region the exchanges were NOT equipped for this in any of the sections I worked in. If they were I would have known about it. Hell we would have been able to get a test circuit back then.

In my section it was only the managers who got early access and that was in June 2001
 
So if I unplug my tv and home theatre and just leave the fibre and the modem on during a typical gauteng lighting and thunder escapade...what are the possibilites of my modem getting struck?I ask this because we do unplug everything but then there's not a lot to do apart from reading a book:(

What you need to do is take precautions to reduce the risk.
That means always using class III SPD protection on all sensitive equipment power feeds by getting quality extension multiplugs with built-in protection for the power feed and any incoming copper connection as a minimum. By that, I mean not the el cheapo stuff hanging on a hook in a supermarket, but a product from say Clearline, who specialise in a range of products designed to protect modems, routers, STB decoders, hi-fi setups etc.

Always any surge protection provided with the product even if you have already got a quality multiplug setup.

The next step involves getting an electrician in to check the earthing in the main DB board and install Class II SPD units on the incoming mains.

Finally, the most difficult one is to get CLass I SPD protection installed preferably at the incoming mains to your property. This is the tricky one because, in SA, local Councils are very reluctant to do this. I got around it by getting the incoming cable installed into a box, where I got Class I SPDs installed outside of my home. That is the same point where I can connect a generator via a change over selector switch.

That is best you can do, and it now reduces the risk to a minimum, but still can't do much in the event of a direct or near direct strike close to your home. Nothing mand made survives that sort of event.
 
Which area was this... as I was working in the Gauteng region the exchanges were NOT equipped for this in any of the sections I worked in. If they were I would have known about it. Hell we would have been able to get a test circuit back then.

In my section it was only the managers who got early access and that was in June 2001

Pretoria, part of a group at the then Telkom labs who did trials on lots of ADSL equipment in 1997/1998. A few of us were on the trials, and it was extended to some other parts of the country. In 1998, long term trials started. Then the final supply/ tender process kicked in and general release was later, first to more insiders and then finally to the public.
 
Depends, some people believe lightning can still hit your house so LTE and Fibre can be housed under the same issue. But yes OP wanted to know why he/she/it/LGBTQABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST... needed fibre. So if OP is using ADSL my point is valid.

Well, this summer, the round of storms we had a week ago, DID strike in our area. A tree close to me. I had the very first lightning damage in 22 years. A light fitting in the kitchen got destroyed as in total, surge protection on incoming sat antenna cable blown to smithereens, and a tvLINK eye in the kitchen got fried.

reason traced to an old earth cable lying in the ceiling that I missed. That cable used to connect the galv gutters to the power earth in the DB board. I thought I had removed them all but missed the piece connected to the light fitting earth in the kitchen. Acted as a sort of antenna I suppose. The sat tv cables are in a duct close to that blasted earth cable, which meant the surge got into the RF cables, and blew the surge protection outside on the antenna, as well as the tvLINK eye, but was stopped by the surge protection in the lounge feeding all the equipment there.
 
Distance from the central point/exchange on ADSL is maximum 5 km under perfect conditions - Fibre can stretch for 20 km on GPON (the most often used equipment in SA). AON, depending on the design can stretch to 100 km.
Tbh, I doubt that they would stretch GPON to 20km in most cities, but that's official spec, most of the time <40km is still fine. Would still be a really strange/rare network design to do that though unless it's an isolated user that would probably make it cost prohibitive to deploy to.
Summary Recommendation ITU-T G.984.1 defines the maximum differential distance between any two ONUs on the passive optical network (PON) as 20 km and the GPON logical reach has been defined as 60 km. However, based on practical deployment experience, it has been found that a differential distance of 40 km ranging from 0 to 40 km, 20 to 60 km, or distances in between allows significant flexibility in PON deployment and offers many benefits including the ability to serve sparsely populated areas in an efficient manner. The present Recommendation describes the necessary requirements for GPON to support the differential distance of 40 km.
https://www.itu.int/rec/dologin_pub.asp?lang=e&id=T-REC-G.984.7-201007-I!!PDF-E&type=items
Improved latency not because it is on fibre as some suggest BUT because there is less equipment involved between you and the backbone with fewer protocol conversions. The latency due to distance is almost exactly the same as before.

Ping does not increase as someone posted --- ping results are improved (less), routing should be improved depending on the service provider and his shenanigans.
Exactly, no modem.
Reliability: Well, unfortunately, this is NOT really a factor of technology or equipment, but the quality of installation, maintenance as well as the business plans of the ISP, not so much the backbone provider. In other words, the same old same as affected ADSL. I gave it 5 years for maintenance issues to start to show up on FTTH. And we are there now as some have reported already, So don't do the conversion solely based on this as a reason.
Network equipment, yes, but due to the reduced amount of equipment, it will be easier to maintain (not necessarily cheaper as more experienced people in the DSL sector probably).
The actual copper vs fiber, the fiber doesn't degrade close to as quickly.

Most of the "issues" reported are bad network design/faulty equipment or in the case of Octotel, business practice.
Congestion: Unfortunately, we are going to see an increase in complaints about congestion and poor throughput over fibre, just as was the case with ADSL. Why? Because again, the prime reason for congestion is oversubscription and high contention ratios because of lousy business plans and profit greed and short term payback. In other words, ISPS are their worst own enemies, not the technology they choose to use.

Already, an added layer of contention has been introduced, not there previously between you and the exchange over a shared service such as GPON.
Already, the share ratio 1:64 instead of the original 1:32. The claim is made is because the new fibre capacities on GPON have been increased, BUT, what guarantee does the user have, when the suppliers are cagey about telling you how they have deployed the GPON network? As these networks get loaded with customers and a mix of high- and low-usage customers, we are going to see an increase in complaints about poor performance during peak usage times, which will be fobbed off and delayed until the usage pattern returns to normal and then the complaints will just be written off as NFF.

ISPs are apparently using a 10:1 contention ratio. If you press them on the matter, they will trot out a justification based on voice telephony, because that IS where they get that figure from! I am pretty sure the more ropey providers are working on even higher contention ratios. The fact is with high usage internet access and streaming services, gaming etc, that a contention ratio of 6:1 and even 3:1 is what is required as a maximum.
Congestion in regards to that is a dumb argument, OpenServe has congestion as to how they did their business structure, the congestion at the exchange should be a lot better than before as newer equipment. In Cool Ideas thread, I think I saw PB mention that Telkom might finally charge the same as Teraco and stuff, on a 1/10/100Gbps port rather than a per Mbps cost.

GPON was originally rated as 1:1 up to 1:64, so they're following the spec...
2.5Gbps / 64 = ~40 Mbps, with overheads it will be ~2300/64 = ~35Mbps. How many users even have 100 Mbps connections? If they can save costs while still having the ability to move to 1:16 if needed without impacting users, why not?

At very high speeds, contention ratios don't matter as much/can go higher. I have a 100Mbps line, I think I maybe max it out for 10 minutes a day, the rest of the time I am probably maxing out at around 3-4Mbps as streaming a YouTube video or two in the house. Most users will burst their connection for a little bit and then not use it for a while, that's normal for consumption.

And I would love to know how you got ISP contention figures since that is a trade secret, competitors would easily gain an advantage based on that.
Lastly, The FTTH guys have very little background as to where the technology comes, a poor understanding of how the downstream technology works and even less of the TDMA upstream technology typically used in a GPON system. This lack of understanding is going to bite them in the arse. The only uncertainty is when.
That's an interesting generalization, which I would love a source to.
If you're talking about the installers, that's not their jobs, they come to bring a wire into your house, splice it into the box and then activate it on the system.
The actual people who designed/built the system definitely know what they're doing.
 
Some information for small families
(read on if you are spending too much on your data):
My wife and I are the only two who constantly use our internet connection.
Sometimes a visitor (or two or more) may connect and use it for a limited time.
We have (I think) the most economical setup for our purposes.
Our usage is:
Netflix streaming (not HD) almost 8 hours a day.
Email and Youtube viewing mostly in the evenings and weekends.
Some other sporadic web browsing from time to time.
Our equipment and service setup is:
One desktop PC connected to a 27 inch TV, one laptop, two cell phones.
All four devices are permanently connected via WIFI.
Copper ADSL (2Mbit/s) with land line telephone service.
ISP is Telkom Internet with 20Gb "Softcap" and 100Gb "Do Movies".
With persistence and patience you CAN get Telkom to make it work properly.
There is fibre line to our house and we have been offered fibre services.
Why do I "need" fibre? No one has adequately answered this question.

My 2Mbit/s connection is fine for my use but as soon as openserve lay fibre cables in my area I'll order the R499/m 10Mbit/s from Cool Idea https://www.cisp.co.za/ftth/openserve-residential/
Ci.jpg
 
IEEE clearly states what protectors do how much protection. A properly earthed 'whole house' protector (must be Type 1 or 2 to avert house fire) will do 99.5% to 99.9% of the protection. So a 'whole house' protector with a low impedance (ie less than 3 meter) connection to single point earth ground is not perfect. To maybe get another 0.2% protection, then buy those expensive Type 3 protectors.

Never use a Type 3 protector close to the main breaker box or that earth ground. These protectors are so tiny as to create fires if located where effective protectors must be located - connect a surge harmlessly to earth. A Type 3 protectors should never be used if not protected by a properly earthed 'whole house' solution - again to protect from house fires.

Meanwhile the IEEE then puts perspective to these numbers.
Still, a 99.5% protection level will reduce the incidence of direct strokes from one stroke per 30 years ... to one stroke per 6000 years ... Protection at 99.5% is the practical choice.

A protector without an earth ground does not even claim to protect from destructive surges. Such protectors must either 'block' or 'absorb' a surge (see next 2 paragraphs). Numbers for plug-in (ie Type 3) protectors only claim protection inferior to what is already inside appliances. Those numbers say why plug-in protectors also must be protected by a 'whole house' solution.

How do 2 cm protector parts inside a plug-in protectors 'block' what three kilometers of sky cannot? It doesn't. And need not. It is promoted on myths that have no credibility.

How do its hundreds of joules 'absorb' a surge that can be hundreds of thousands of joules? It doesn't. And need not. Since being grossly undersized and then failing catastrophically gets naive consumers to recommend it and buy more.

No protector does protection ... not one. The effective protector does not 'block' or 'absorb' a surge. An effective protector 'absorbs' LESS energy. The effective protector is only a connecting device to what does all protection - to what harmesslly 'absorbs' the entire surge: single point earth ground. How to increase protector effectiveness? Upgrade (lower the impedance) connection to and upgraded the quality of earth ground. That and only that improves protection.

And for one glaringly obvious reason. Effective solution will always answer this question: where do hundreds of thousands of joules harmlessly dissipate? A protector is only as effective as its earth ground. Earth ground (not any protector) must have most all attention.

Some protection systems do not have protectors. But every protection system always has the only critically important component - earth ground. For example, best protection on a TV cable has no protector. But a hardwire that does surge protection (even from direct lightning strikes) must connect low impedance (ie no sharp bends or splices) to single point earth ground.. Protector not necessary to make the low impedance connection.

Each layer of protection is never defined by any protector. Each layer of protection is only defined by the item that defines protection. Earth ground. A 'whole house' protector (and only if connected low impedance to earth) is only a 'secondary' protection layer. Informed consumers also inspect their 'primary' protection layer installed by the AC utility.

No earth ground (ie plug-in protectors) means no effective protection. And why a 'whole house' protector is essential to protect those plug-in protectors.

Nothing new here. This proven science was well understood and implemented over 100 years ago.
 
Tbh, I doubt that they would stretch GPON to 20km in most cities, but that's official spec, most of the time <40km is still fine. Would still be a really strange/rare network design to do that though unless it's an isolated user that would probably make it cost prohibitive to deploy to.

Agree, generally. What it does mean service providers have lots more flexibility, PROVIDED the network designers don't screw it up with bad cable run designs and silly use of the concentration ratios. And ultimately, the performance of the technology will depend more on the "electrical" distance. What I mean by that is IF the splicing is bad, with more attenuation than there should be and bad reflections at the splices, then this will negatively impact on what results are realised in the field. Hence why I would err on sticking closer to the <20 Km figure generally.

Exactly, no modem.

And of course the much hated ASSIA stuff! Wonder how long it is going to be before someone thinks that a similar idea on FTTH should be implemented?????

Network equipment, yes, but due to the reduced amount of equipment, it will be easier to maintain (not necessarily cheaper as more experienced people in the DSL sector probably).
The actual copper vs fiber, the fiber doesn't degrade close to as quickly.

Most of the "issues" reported are bad network design/faulty equipment or in the case of Octotel, business practice.

The equipment is all pretty good from all the suppliers, The problems come in on the deployment designs, the quality of the installations and then the maintenance.
My observation is based on what I have seen in two deployments on in my area, and the other in Centurion.
In Centurion, The planning was never updated to reflect a change in where the "backbone fibre" was laid. So what happened is the fibre was laid behind a number of houses in a complex and other houses thus 12 core, 24 core, 48 core, from the backbone to the last house in that network. No one revised the fibre planning when the backbone was changed. And then the drawing I saw, most definitely did not seem too bothered by the differential differences between ONUs. When I pointed that out to the crew boss, he disappeared, came back, stopped the job, and then after two weeks it just continued. Presumably, a decision was taken that "tuff, the fibre is in, we will live with the screw up"

In my area, I also ended up with a 48 core to the last pole, where there are 4 houses. The last pole is in my neighbour's yard, but they always access the pole from my yard. seems there was a piece of 48 core over so the construction sommer maar used it instead of the planned 24 core.

The real problem was when the splicing was done. They set up a table in my yard with the OTDR. What pissed me off was when I heard the little Chinese guy say "good enough, good enough" when they tested the individual cores. Then when I saw the spread of measurements across the 48 cores, via4 splices, presumably back to where the splitters were going to be installed, over 4 splices (already splices in a distance of 10 km) is for me an issue. The spread in OTDR result ( attenuation) was 35%. Over the same fibre cable, and the same joints!

There is no way on earth that the equipment deployed on those fibres are going to operate within spec. Imagine the maintenance issues just this simple issue is going to trigger off in the future!

Congestion in regards to that is a dumb argument, OpenServe has congestion as to how they did their business structure, the congestion at the exchange should be a lot better than before as newer equipment. In Cool Ideas thread, I think I saw PB mention that Telkom might finally charge the same as Teraco and stuff, on a 1/10/100Gbps port rather than a per Mbps cost.

GPON was originally rated as 1:1 up to 1:64, so they're following the spec...
2.5Gbps / 64 = ~40 Mbps, with overheads it will be ~2300/64 = ~35Mbps. How many users even have 100 Mbps connections? If they can save costs while still having the ability to move to 1:16 if needed without impacting users, why not?

At very high speeds, contention ratios don't matter as much/can go higher. I have a 100Mbps line, I think I maybe max it out for 10 minutes a day, the rest of the time I am probably maxing out at around 3-4Mbps as streaming a YouTube video or two in the house. Most users will burst their connection for a little bit and then not use it for a while, that's normal for consumption.

And I would love to know how you got ISP contention figures since that is a trade secret, competitors would easily gain an advantage based on that.
Give me 24-hours access to a system and I will be able to see what the contention ratios are. and if the ISPs think they can simply fix a problem by removing a splitter, then that show very poor design principles used in the initial design.

Some do talk about the 10:1 ratio on their websites. most have completely removed all reference to design principles including removing a description of GPON from their websites. So yes it is a state secret. But not difficult to unearth if you want to.

History will reveal all ultimately.

That's an interesting generalization, which I would love a source to.
If you're talking about the installers, that's not their jobs, they come to bring a wire into your house, splice it into the box and then activate it on the system.
The actual people who designed/built the system definitely know what they're doing.

It is not the equipment design, but the planning and design of the deployment. If they do not make sure they understand the technology properly, they will and have screwed up. And absolutely, they are at the mercy of the installers that is a racing certainty. The installer that shows up at my place is going to have one hell of a hard time. He is going to have to show me his toolbox, and his test gear before he lifts a F@cking finger!
he is going to use my duct, place the ONU where I want it and power it the way I say. He is then going to test the system and give me a test sheet showing the installation measurements. If that does not happen him and his company can take a running jump into the nearest cable manhole!
 
reason traced to an old earth cable lying in the ceiling that I missed.
Misinformation is created in some venues by mistakenly calling a safety ground wire the earth ground wire. Earth ground wire only connects to earthing electrodes. Those safety ground wires in walls all over the structure do not connect a surge 'low impedance' to earth. Those only exist to protect human life.

If any safety ground wire inside a structure compromised protection, then the 'whole house' solution was installed with a human mistake. Human mistakes are the most common reason why direct lightning strikes cause damage. If damage happens, then an investigation starts begins with analysis of earth ground connections .... which is completely unrelated to and independent of safety ground wires to wall receptacles.

If a surge is properly earthed to single point earth ground, then a surge is not on any safety ground wires. If a surge is on any safety ground wire, then that surge can be connected directly into electronic motherboards - often compromising (bypassing) what is superior protection inside that appliance.

Earth ground, safety ground, digital ground, virtual ground, chassis ground, floating ground, analog ground, etc are all electrically different. Unfortunately, in some venues, all those grounds are mistakenly called earth ground.
 
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