Why the weather forecast will always be a bit wrong

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Why the weather forecast will always be a bit wrong

The science of weather forecasting falls to public scrutiny every single day. When the forecast is correct, we rarely comment, but we are often quick to complain when the forecast is wrong. Are we ever likely to achieve a perfect forecast that is accurate to the hour?

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We don't mind weather forecast errors - It's the TV presenters. Most of them cover the map with their bodies, especially the Eastern Cape area. They seem to forget that some viewers may have switched on their TV's while their area was hidden.
This was never the case during the days of the two Hart presenters. The younger Tim's body was half-way off the picture.
 
pegpluscol said:
We don't mind weather forecast errors - It's the TV presenters. Most of them cover the map with their bodies, especially the Eastern Cape area. They seem to forget that some viewers may have switched on their TV's while their area was hidden.
This was never the case during the days of the two Hart presenters. The younger Tim's body was half-way off the picture.
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Just search on Google for the weather.
 
I get that it would be difficult to say exactly on the hour when it will rain.
But do not tell me it is going to rain in the next hour when there Is not a single cloud in the sky. How do you get it that wrong?
 
Flarsiep said:
I get that it would be difficult to say exactly on the hour when it will rain.
But do not tell me it is going to rain in the next hour when there Is not a single cloud in the sky. How do you get it that wrong?
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Good observation. National Weather Service forecast is not prepared real time, but once a day. Then the radio presenter must report temperature and weather conditions as per official forecast, not their own observations. They must do it to obey the law (or the official code of practice). It is why when weather sudenly changes, you get raining on the radio when there is no a single cloud in the sky.
 
They show that the accuracy of a five-day forecast nowadays is comparable to that of a three-day forecast about 20 years ago, and that each decade, we gain about a day’s worth of skill. Essentially, today’s three-day forecasts are as precise as the two-day forecast of ten years AGO.
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Yet the same people want to tell me that they can use the same computer models to predict what the global climate will do in 20 years time. There is a glaring amount of dishonesty here.
 
sajunky said:
Good observation. National Weather Service forecast is not prepared real time, but once a day. Then the radio presenter must report temperature and weather conditions as per official forecast, not their own observations. They must do it to obey the law (or the official code of practice). It is why when weather sudenly changes, you get raining on the radio when there is no a single cloud in the sky.
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As usual you are wrong.. Weather forecasts are produced regularly throughout the day based on modeling systems...
 
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