Dont support the aussies! Sri Lankas gonna win it!!
Ok so lets start looking for possible semifinal combinations..
The log:
AUS 5 5 0 10 +2.30
SRI 5 4 1 8 +1.35
NZL 5 4 1 8 +1.27
RSA 5 3 2 6 -0.20
ENG 5 2 3 4 +0.08
WIN 5 1 4 2 -1.21
BAN 5 1 4 2 -1.43
IRE 5 0 5 0 -1.97
Remaining (important) fixtures:
Aus vs Sri
SA vs Eng
Sri vs Ire
Aus vs NZ
WI vs Eng
So, if Sri beats Aus (one bad game), SA beats Eng, Sri beats Ire, Aus beats NZ, Eng beats WI then log (use NRR as a guide):
AUS 7 6 1 12 +2.30
SRI 7 6 1 12 +1.35
NZL 7 5 2 10 +1.27
RSA 7 4 3 8 -0.20
ENG 7 3 4 6 +0.08
then we play Aus in semi (superior NRR than Sri).
But if Aus ALSO loses to NZ then log:
NZL 7 6 1 12 +1.27
SRI 7 6 1 12 +1.35
AUS 7 5 2 10 +2.30
RSA 7 4 3 8 -0.20
ENG 7 3 4 6 +0.08
then we play NZL / SRI in semi depending on their NRR.
But if Aus beats SRI but STILL loses to NZ then log:
AUS 7 6 1 12 +2.30
NZL 7 6 1 12 +1.27
SRI 7 5 2 10 +1.35
RSA 7 4 3 8 -0.20
ENG 7 3 4 6 +0.08
then Aus will probably still top the log because of their NRR and we play Aus in semi.
If Aus beats both Sri and NZ then we definitely play Aus in semi as they will be on 14, the other 2 on 10 and we on 8 provided we beat Eng.
If we lose to Eng we go out, even if WI beats Eng (NRR).
Conclusion (I think

), if we beat Eng we have to hope Aus loses both their matches to avoid playing them in the semi, which I don't think will happen, or for Sri to give them a hiding to improve Sri NRR, which is also doubtful. Sri have an easy 2 points in Ire coming up, so perhaps they can use that to improve their NRR to get ahead of Aus if they beat them. When NZ beats us today they will also be on 10. The best we can hope for is 8 points and that will always be good enough for 4th
