The when depends on how stupid people get. Universities shutting down of a month is bad, but it's hardly a doomsday scenario...
If it stops now we will be oky. I don't think anyone can accurately predict a date or even a point of no return.
It is a doomsday scenario, and SA education is past the point of no return. The issue isn't the immediate problem of lectures lost, or the inconvenience of a few weeks of work lost by staff, the issue is that much of the academic staff will now be looking for foreign posts, top academic staff that would have come to work in SA, are far less likely to do so now. The good PhDs and postdocs responsible for much of the research and future staffing are far less likely to spend this early part of their career at a SA university (locals will go overseas to do postgrad where possible, and would-be foreign students will rather go elsewhere). This isn't a short lived problem either - these people are needed to attract the next generation, and them the the next, etc. A country or university's academic standing is actually an incredibly fragile thing, which has just been kicked in the face.
Years ago I thought that at some point I would retire from industry, move back to SA and take an academic post. I was put off this idea several years ago by various events, now there's just no way I would even consider it. I already know academics thy have resigned, and many who are thinking of leaving - some of them are foreign born and educated, and some are locals with world class foreign education - they came back to SA, because they thought they would be more effective and would be more appreciated - they wouldn't make the same decision today.
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