Apple shares in decline

[QuintonB]

Is Apple on its way down?

Gravity has taken hold of Apple, and a lot of investors have been smacked on the head.

 

[cerebus]

Odd sort of thing, quite unreflective of any actual negative financial results. The tax implications will have an impact but that should apply to all stocks; why is Apple being pummelled?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/09/apple-its-mojo-and-doug-kass/

 

[HeftyCrab]

no one wants to support a bully.

 

[Maverick Jester]

why is Apple being pummelled?

Victims of their own success?

 

[cerebus]

no one wants to support a bully.

The stock market has never had a problem with that.

Victims of their own success?

Again, that's totally meaningless. Can you explain a bit more?

 

[BeVonk!]

Apple's share price is overinflated and must come down to settle at a lower level. Jobs is gone. The hype is fading. It is becoming just another tech company. The iPhone 5 issues showed that the perfection under Jobs is fading. The company will henceforth make mistakes like their competitors and there is therefore a rise in the risk profile.

 

[Zyzzyva]

Odd sort of thing, quite unreflective of any actual negative financial results. The tax implications will have an impact but that should apply to all stocks; why is Apple being pummelled?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/09/apple-its-mojo-and-doug-kass/

Stocks have been hammered since Obama won because of his stance on higher taxes for the rich and the whole fiscal cliff situation. The first time Obama won the dow for instance dropped 6-8% and stayed down for 11 days if i remember correctly. The S&P500 is also down(Apple is something like 5% of the S&P500). With key long term support breaking you do tend to get quite a sell-off. The princes often go down when sentiment is negative. I'll turn around fairly quickly, and if anything this period is a damn good buying opportunity. Everyone is watching and waiting, trying to pick the bottom.

Apple's fundamentals are still good, although showing some cracks it must be said.

 

[TheGuy]

Apple's share price is overinflated and must come down to settle at a lower level. Jobs is gone. The hype is fading. It is becoming just another tech company. The iPhone 5 issues showed that the perfection under Jobs is fading. The company will henceforth make mistakes like their competitors and there is therefore a rise in the risk profile.

+1

 

[cerebus]

Apple's share price is overinflated and must come down to settle at a lower level. Jobs is gone. The hype is fading. It is becoming just another tech company. The iPhone 5 issues showed that the perfection under Jobs is fading. The company will henceforth make mistakes like their competitors and there is therefore a rise in the risk profile.

None of what you said is grounded in anything resembling fact; except Steve Jobs being gone. But the rest is just FUD. Steve Jobs is gone ergo Apple stock must crash. But it's still a useful post because it's almost a perfect template of the kinds of reasoning that are leading to the stock falling. The point is I'm trying to find tangibles to lock on whether the fall is rational i.e. based on fundamentals of slowing customer demand, or irrational i.e. the result of speculation and ungrounded fears.

 

[cerebus]

Stocks have been hammered since Obama won because of his stance on higher taxes for the rich and the whole fiscal cliff situation. The first time Obama won the dow for instance dropped 6-8% and stayed down for 11 days if i remember correctly. The S&P500 is also down(Apple is something like 5% of the S&P500). With key long term support breaking you do tend to get quite a sell-off. The princes often go down when sentiment is negative. I'll turn around fairly quickly, and if anything this period is a damn good buying opportunity. Everyone is watching and waiting, trying to pick the bottom.

Apple's fundamentals are still good, although showing some cracks it must be said.

That is a great post and very informative. Thanks.

 

[Zyzzyva]

That is a great post and very informative. Thanks.

The fiscal cliff situation and the European debt crisis are the big drivers at the moment. Also with some uncertainty on the tax situation lots of big money is moving out of stocks to safe haven assets like US treasuries. Treasuries are seeing quite the gain at the moment. As soon as things die down and some certainty returns money will flow back to riskier assets.

 

[BeVonk!]

None of what you said is grounded in anything resembling fact; except Steve Jobs being gone. But the rest is just FUD. Steve Jobs is gone ergo Apple stock must crash. But it's still a useful post because it's almost a perfect template of the kinds of reasoning that are leading to the stock falling. The point is I'm trying to find tangibles to lock on whether the fall is rational i.e. based on fundamentals of slowing customer demand, or irrational i.e. the result of speculation and ungrounded fears.

You may not like my argument, but the stock market doesn't work like a scientific laboratory. Perceptions is an important force and the perceptions may or may not be based on facts. What I gave you is the perception. Call it FUD or whatever you like ... it doesn't change the validity of my statement.

 

[cerebus]

You may not like my argument, but the stock market doesn't work like a scientific laboratory. Perceptions is an important force and the perceptions may or may not be based on facts. What I gave you is the perception. Call it FUD or whatever you like ... it doesn't change the validity of my statement.

So is it a reflection of the irrational and fluctuating stock market sentiment or your own views?

 

[reedOsama]

You may not like my argument, but the stock market doesn't work like a scientific laboratory. Perceptions is an important force and the perceptions may or may not be based on facts. What I gave you is the perception. Call it FUD or whatever you like ... it doesn't change the validity of my statement.

Jobs died ages ago and the iphone 5 made record sales (although it was less than predicted)

Zyzzyva's answer just makes more sense

 

[zippy]

now its going up : http://www.google.co.uk/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL

 

[BeVonk!]

Jobs died ages ago and the iphone 5 made record sales (although it was less than predicted)

Zyzzyva's answer just makes more sense

It all makes sense. It's a combination of things and to correctly read the exact composition of that combination is the magic trick that makes some stockbrokers better than others. Sometimes it can be pinned to one or two specifics (like poor sales, product failures, etc) but more often it is a combination of things. Zyzzyva mentioned risks. Investors try to manage that by reading "into many factors". The perception I mentioned is but one, but a I believe an important one. I believe Apple is losing its lustre and its stock value will in time settle at a lower more realistic value. As I said "I believe" ... so it is my opinion. Use or ignore it. I don't care.

 

[Polymathic]

I called it just before Iphone 5 was launched. Just saying

 

[icyrus]

As usual Horace Dediu has some interesting insights:

http://www.asymco.com/2012/11/12/a-dramatic-reading/

 

[diabolus]

Here's why they think investors are feeling edgy about Apple:


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-apples-stock-is-down-2012-11#ixzz2CYJ0FfEp

Barclays put out a note on the eight reasons Apple's stock has been cratering. In the note is this handy table laying out each concern, and what Barclays thinks is the reason people shouldn't over react.

Incidentally, it's all the things we as consumer most likely noticed too.

In summary:

1. Long Term Margin Concerns
2. Competition for Iphone
3. Competition for Ipad
4. No "Next Big Thing"
5.Concerns over Maps
6. Management Changes
7. Production Execution (Changing Suppliers, Shortages, Quality )
8. Execution Risks in Vertical Integration (Changing Suppliers from Samsung to other firms).


Nokia and RIM came down extremely fast, and it was primarily #2 and 4 that did it. If Apple just continue to bring out a rehash of the iphone and ipad every 6 months AND making your existing iphone/ipad obsolete (something not happening in the Android space, despite a zillion models to pick from) without actually adding anything significant (and actually removing stuff) , they are going to start having much bigger issues soon.

Their ongoing legal fights is not even mentioned, but i'd think that is most likely very distracting and clearly Apple is only trying to "lock" the market down instead of finding ways of growing or sustaining it.

 

[ClintZA]

Ridiculous reading this thread and seeing one reasonable answer dismissed in favour of one that lays the "blame" elsewhere. Markets are driven just as much by perceptions and sentiment as they are by fact.

I am sensing far more negative sentiment towards Apple online. Personally I am also reading of a few Apple loyalists who are making a switch to other phones. We suddenly have other tablets being considered by many, not just iPads. Then you read news of another smartphone outselling Apple. This affects the buying decision of some. These things affect shareholder sentiment.