Rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel continue, extending as far north as Haifa, with attempts to strike the Tel Aviv International Airport. So far, the results have been minimal: some cars destroyed, slight damage to property, a gas station and one man trapped in his car when the cars around him caught fire. Two attempts by Hamas to attack from the sea were foiled and the would-be attackers were killed by Israeli forces. A man driving a booby-trapped vehicle was stopped on his way to perpetuate was seems to an intended suicide attack in a populated area.
Israel has intensified its response, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military assets while preparing for a possible ground assault. To a meaningful extent, the initiative in in Hamas' hands: if it concedes a cease-fire, Israel will be hard-pressed to continue its military campaign. If Hamas scores a single significant hit, with meaningful damage to life, limb or property, Israel will be forced to send in its ground forces.
Israel also faces a serious problem: how will it know when it has won? Hamas is buried deep underground and, if deemed necessary, its leadership can escape through tunnels into Sinai. The only way to uproot the organization is through an extended presence in the Gaza Strip, exposing the occupiers with the kind of resistance it faced in southern Lebanon and the Americans faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. If Hamas sues for a cease-fire, the result will merely be an relative absence of violence until the organization is ready for the next round. Nor is Israel willing to be as ruthless as were the Russians in Chechnya, which is the only way to effectively suppress, if not eradicate, organizations such as Hamas.
Israel and the West are forced to face a new reality. The nature of warfare has changed. Until 1967 the conflict was viewed as the Arab-Israeli Conflict. After Israel took the West Bank and Gaza, it encouraged among the Palestinians increased political expression, made room for the development of local political leadership, allowed extensive educational, economic and cultural advances, developed an infrastructure, granted women the right to vote and permitted meaningful contact between West Bankers and Gazans. None of this was possible under Arab rule (Egyptian in Gaza and Jordanian in the West Bank). Increased national identity resulted in transforming the conflict into one between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
At the same time, important convulsions took occurred in the Arab world. The artificial borders created at whim by Western Powers following the First World War were increasingly challenged. The political entities created by the Powers (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, TransJordan, Saudi Arabia) existed since their founding only by force of the dictatorships that controlled them or a tenuous balance of almost-equal powers. These dictatorships are now being challenged by ancient aboriginal forces, primarily through the various forms of resurgent Islam seeking hegemony.
The Shi'ites (primarily Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon) oppose the Sunnis (the major Sunni countries are Turkey, TransJordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the North African States). Moderate, largely cultural Sunnis against radical, largely religious Sunnis such as the Muslim Brotherhood, radical Muslims against extremists such as the Wahabbis (represented by the Saudi Arabian king and his Government), or the more extreme Al Qaida, or the even more extreme Isis that recently sprung up in Syria and has taken over large swathes of that country and of Iraq.
No longer are wars conducted between nations with capitals, a standing, uniformed military, known Governments, visible economic infrastructures and assets. Wars are now "asymmetric" -- waged between nations and groundswell terrorist organizations. It is not possible to overtake a capital and declare victory, because there is no capital to overtake. Capture or kill a leader and another sprouts up in his place. Attack military assets and, inevitably, you maim and kill civilians among whom the organizations hide such assets -- and then expose yourself to the cynical propaganda that exploits Western spineless naivety by weeping crocodile tears over the loss of human life among those in whose homes, schools and hospitals the organizations have have placed their munitions and which they use as staging grounds for attacks, all the while attacking Western civilian targets with impunity.
The present seething cauldron of conflicts in the Middle East has created strange bed-fellows. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel has common enemies in the Muslim Brother hood, the violent extremist Muslim movements and the Iranian Shi'ites. Covert cooperation is extensive, driving them closer to one another (and, incidentally, rendering a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians more desirable). The West, led by America finds itself sharing concerns with Iran over the extremists Sunni Isis. Secular Russia in in cahoots with religiously-motivated Iran both against Isis and the West. Turkey, a short while ago aspiring to Sunni Muslim leadership, driven into Iran's arms due to the double threat of Kurdish Independence and Isis.
The Palestinians are divided between Hamas' Gaza and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), ruling through the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank. Radical Islam, represented by Hamas is considered a threat, but Hamas' economic and political isolation has weakened it to the extent that the PLO is willing to share political powers in the hope that this will further erode Hamas' hold on sections of the population. It runs the risk of being undermined by the crafty Hamas operatives and defeated either by force or at the ballot box.
On the other hand, the rise of extremist Islam, represented by Al Qaida and Isis, constitutes a threat both to the PLO and to Hamas, increasing their dependance on the moderate Sunni States (which, as noted above, are cooperating with Israel and have increased interest in a negotiated peace agreement between the Palestinians and Israel).
Does all of this make sense to you? If it does, please write and enlighten me.
