Bullschit. And here is why:
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Here is what Nazi Ali had to say a few weeks ago regarding the price:
This is what Sanral’s plate recognition system says drivers will pay monthly:
• 82.83% will pay less than R100
• 10.10% will pay R101 - R200
• 1.82% will pay R201 - R300
• 0.59% will pay R300 - R450
So I decided to crunch these numbers and compare them against their expenditure and debt obligations (all publicly available data)
Under this scenario, e-toll fees will have to increase by 17.7% to 20% year on year for 7 years in order for them to repay their debt.
Seems that this is the perfect increase in order for them to repay their debt and remain solvent, without risking default on their bonds. The true increase is 17.7% year on year increase, but 20% allows for other overhead costs. The base requirement annual increase is 17.7% year on year for the next 7 years, unless they have lied about their numbers.
So if we're to believe Sanral's claims relating to costs, and their breakdown, we will be subjected to a 20% year on year increase in toll fees every year. This table shows you what you will be paying each year based on which cost bracket you fall under.
Actually this is the kind of thing that should be making its way to the news, as this is all based on data supplied by Sanral themselves. It's just not possible for them to fund the tolls using their numbers, without a 20% year on year increase for 7 years, and without a consistent 100% compliance rate, and 100% 30-day debtors book.
Now let's look at the two more realistic scenarios. If we go with 66% compliance rate, they require a 30.85% year on year increase to the tariffs over 7 years while maintaining a 100% 30-day debtors book (impossible):
And if we all buckle down and abstain, or at least most of us do, and we assume a 33% compliance rate, then they require a 53.91% year on year increase over 7 years with a 100% 30-day debtors book (impossible), plus a R7,2bn cash injection by government over the next two years:
This is the information that needs to get out. If you want to spread it far and wide but need some clarification about what you're looking at, then feel free to ask in this thread and I'll happily explain.
But to break it down -
- I've used Sanral's numbers. These are figures that they have quoted in parliament, in the press, and from their financial statements.
- I have based their requirements on their existing debt obligations, as per their financial statements.
- I have then used the numbers that Nazir Ali stated as fact - their breakdown of how many people will pay what.
- I've then used that model to create scenarios based on compliance rates - 100%, 66%, and 33% (3 million, 2 million, and 1 million people paying each month).
- I've then adjusted the numbers for the next 7 years (average time required until debt maturity. i.e. they need to repay all debt and interest) to show how much of an increase will be required each year for them to achieve this.
- I've also provided a weighted average payment that all road users will be liable for. As you can see, it starts out small, but very quickly increases in order for them to remain solvent. So don't be fooled when they make statements like "e-tolls are cheap".
- I've also broken it down into cost brackets as per Nazir Ali's statements so that you can see exactly what it is you're likely to be paying in the next few years. Basically, if you travel through more than 3 gantries in one direction per day, you will in all likelihood fall into Cost Bracket 4.
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